Today’s D Brief: Ukraine, Russia escalate; Chinese fishing boats, unwanted; Small carrier, unneeded?; Lessons from Suez; And a bit more. – Defense One
Ukraine says Russia is massing troops on its border, and pro-Moscow separatists were systematically violating a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine, Reuters reports from Moscow the same day Kievs parliament officially declared an escalation in the east.
Just now catching up? The war in eastern Ukraine...has escalated sharply in recent days, the New York Times Andrew Kramer reported Tuesday from Moscow. [F]our Ukrainian soldiers were killed and another seriously wounded in a battle against Russian-backed separatists in the Donetsk Region, Kramer writes.
Whats more, the U.S. militarys European Command raised its watch level from possible crisis to potential imminent crisis the highest level in response to the deployment of the additional Russian troops. New equipment has been seen among the Russian-backed rebels, too; artillery fire has increased as well. And Russian negotiators have warned of a breakdown in peace talks that have been dragging on for years, the Times reports.
Russias reax: Point the finger at Kiev. We express concern over the growing tension and express concern that one way or another the Ukrainian side could take provocative actions that would lead to war. We really dont want to see that, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said today from the Russian capital.
Russian hackers are believed to have snatched more State Department emails in a breach that happened last year at the Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs and Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs, Politico reports.
ICYMI: Suspected Russian hackers accessed former Homeland Security Acting Secretary Chad Wolfs emails last year, too, the Associated Press reported Monday.
And on the U.S. side, cyber defense is getting more difficult: Staffers are worn out, money is tight and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency is struggling to keep up with multiple competing crises, including the recently uncovered intrusions blamed on Russia and China, Politico reported separately Tuesday.
One more Russian thing: A new report from Brookings says the U.S. military should anticipate encounters with Russian private military contractors in the field. PMCs allow the Russian government to operate in places where it could not openly do so at least not without drawing international retribution or sanctions. The Department of Defense (DoD) and U.S. military leaders must plan for this increased PMC presence. What measures must be taken to protect American forces and safeguard U.S. interests? And what procedures could the U.S. military implement to effectively counter PMC operations in certain countries around the world? Some ideas, here.
PMCs in the CAR: Russian mercenaries from the Wagner group, a private military contractor, have committed human rights abuses in the Central African Republic while fighting alongside government forces, according to a group of independent UN experts, The Guardian reports. The country has been racked by a renewed bout of civil war since an alliance of rebel factions launched an offensive. More, here.
New Small Aircraft Carrier Unlikely, Admiral Says As US Navy Begins New Assessment // Marcus Weisgerber: Air warfare chief: I believe the L-class ships operating with the F-35B fit that bill.
A US Ambassador Ends His Service on the Front Lines in Syria // William Roebuck: Reflections on U.S. foreign policy in a wartorn state.
The Suez Grounding Was an Accident. The Next Blocked Chokepoint Might Not Be. // Scott Savitz: Military planners must bear in mind the tactic of blockships.
Heres How Russia and China Are Helping the U.S. // Yasmeen Serhan, The Atlantic: Beijing and Moscow are filling the vaccine gap that wealthy countries helped create.
Americas Immigration Amnesia // Caitlin Dickerson, The Atlantic: Despite recurrent claims of crisis at the border, the United States still does not have a coherent immigration policy.
Welcome to this Wednesday edition of The D Brief from Ben Watson with Bradley Peniston. Send us tips from your community right here. And if youre not already subscribed to The D Brief, you can do that here. On this day in 1945, German test pilot Hans Fay defected to the Allies but only when he learned his parents hometown of Lachenspeyerdorf was under U.S. control and landed his Messerschmitt Me 262 A-1 jet fighter at Frankfurt/Rhein-Main Airfield. The Allies would have another 16 months to learn about its design before an Army Air Corps pilot crashed it after an engine caught fire during a test flight over Ohio in August the following year.
Japan, South Korea security officials are headed to Annapolis. President Bidens National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan will welcome his counterparts from Tokyo and Seoul to a Trilateral National Security Advisors Dialogue on Friday at the U.S. Naval Academy in Annapolis. The meeting comes on the heels of Defense Secretary Lloyd Austins first overseas trip to both countries about two weeks ago.Attending: Japans National Security Secretariat Secretary General Shigeru Kitamura, and South Koreas National Security Advisor Suh Hoon.Topics of discussion include maintaining peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula, addressing the COVID-19 pandemic, and combating climate change...reflecting the importance we place on broadening and deepening our cooperation on key issues and advancing our shared prosperity across a free and open Indo-Pacific, National Security Council Spokesperson Emily Horne said in a statement Tuesday evening.
Hundreds of Chinese fishing ships are ignoring Philippine requests (Reuters) to leave its 200-mile exclusive economic zone while they allegedly wait out a storm near the contested Whitsun Reef, where some 220 boats have been fishing against Manilas wishes for the past several weeks.About this place: The reef, which Manila calls Julian Felipe, is a boomerang-shaped and shallow coral region about 175 nautical miles (324 kilometers) west of Bataraza town in the western Philippine province of Palawan, AP reported 10 days ago.About that storm: Its hard to find, judging by video from the location in question, Greg Poling of the Center for Strategic and International Studies points out on Twitter.The Philippines defense chief says hes deployed his air force to monitor the ships, and hes requested China order the fishing vessels out of Manilas EEZ, he said this weekend (al-Jazeera). We are ready to defend our national sovereignty and protect the marine resources of the Philippines, Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana said on Saturday.Stern talk: Neither the Philippines nor the international community will ever accept Chinas assertion of its so-called indisputable integrated sovereignty over almost all of the South China Sea, the Philippines task force on the South China Sea said in a statement today, according to Reuters, which called it Manilas strongest [statement] since President Rodrigo Duterte took power in 2016 and sought to befriend Beijing. Read on, here.
France immediately rejected a UN report accusing Paris of killing 16 civilians at a wedding in Mali back in January, Reuters reports.According to the UN, a wedding celebration was held that brought together about 100 civilians at the site of the strike, among whom five armed individuals, presumed members of [alleged regional al-Qaeda affiliate] Katiba Serma, were present. The strike is believed to have killed 19 people at that wedding, including three accused members of Katiba Serma.According to the French military, The only concrete sources on which this report is based are local testimonies. They are never transcribed, the identity of the witnesses is never specified, nor the conditions in which the testimonies were gathered...It is therefore impossible to distinguish credible sources from false testimonies by possible terrorist sympathisers or individuals under the influence (including threats) from jihadist groups.Quick background, via Reuters: France has been embroiled in Malis conflict since 2013, when it intervened to push back Islamist militants who were advancing south after seizing the desert north. The conflict has since spread to neighbouring countries in the West African Sahel region like Burkina Faso and Niger, leading to rising criticism of French forces from local activists and some politicians. More here.
The U.S. just pledged almost $600 million for Syrian refugees, Americas Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield announced Tuesday. That could help a U.N.-coordinated effort [that] is seeking some $4.2 billion to help Syrians inside the country and $5.8 billion for countries hosting refugees, the Wall Street Journal reports.
Some of the alleged Capitol insurrectionists are now coming on hard times, and some are even apparently a bit sorry for stoking and participating in that insurrection on Jan. 6.Among the rude awakenings: No plea deals yet, though they may be in the works, the Associated Press reports. Given it was an attack on what many regard as the citadel of American democracy, the sentiment among prosecutors, judges and the public at large, at least for now, isnt exactly lenient. More including a possible defense invoking the psychology of crowds here.
- Zelenskyy warns of logistics terror as Russia hits Ukraine railway - Al Jazeera - February 2nd, 2026 [February 2nd, 2026]
- Ukraine war latest: Trump unveils trade deal that will help 'END' Ukraine war - Sky News - February 2nd, 2026 [February 2nd, 2026]
- Ukraine may get more than Gripen jets Europe's top air-to-air missile is also on the table - Business Insider - February 2nd, 2026 [February 2nd, 2026]
- Ukraine live: Moscow says foreign troops in Ukraine would be targets in new threat - The Independent - February 2nd, 2026 [February 2nd, 2026]
- US-brokered talks on Russias war on Ukraine will resume in Abu Dhabi - AP News - February 2nd, 2026 [February 2nd, 2026]
- Trump says Putin agreed to pause attacks on Ukraine for a week - Anadolu Ajans - February 2nd, 2026 [February 2nd, 2026]
- Kenyan job seekers were lured to Russia, then sent to die in Ukraine - The Washington Post - February 2nd, 2026 [February 2nd, 2026]
- In response to released Epstein files, Russia's envoy says 'satanist cabal' exploited situation in Ukraine - Anadolu Ajans - February 2nd, 2026 [February 2nd, 2026]
- Ukraine war briefing: Kyiv reschedules peace talks as battered power grid strains in -15C - The Guardian - February 2nd, 2026 [February 2nd, 2026]
- Greek joint venture will supply US LNG to Ukraine in March - Reuters - February 2nd, 2026 [February 2nd, 2026]
- History of the word "zhyd" in Ukraine: From widespread use to marginalization - Ukrainian Jewish Encounter - February 2nd, 2026 [February 2nd, 2026]
- Ukraine gets $235 million boost from DOD with long-term F-16 maintenance deal - Stars and Stripes - February 2nd, 2026 [February 2nd, 2026]
- Ukraine war latest: Russian forces trying to 'bypass and infiltrate' Vovchansk in Kharkiv Oblast, military says - The Kyiv Independent - February 2nd, 2026 [February 2nd, 2026]
- Ukraine Is Winning The Economics Battle Against Russian Geran Drones - Forbes - February 2nd, 2026 [February 2nd, 2026]
- Tuesday, February 2. Russias War On Ukraine: News And Information From Ukraine - Forbes - February 2nd, 2026 [February 2nd, 2026]
- US-brokered talks on Russias war on Ukraine will resume in Abu Dhabi - Northeast Mississippi Daily Journal - February 2nd, 2026 [February 2nd, 2026]
- Ukraine's Zelenskiy says dignified, lasting peace realistic, ahead of talks - Reuters - February 2nd, 2026 [February 2nd, 2026]
- Trkiye marks 34 years of diplomatic ties with Ukraine - Trkiye Today - February 2nd, 2026 [February 2nd, 2026]
- First U.S. LNG Sale Agreement Signed with Ukraine - Shipping Telegraph - February 2nd, 2026 [February 2nd, 2026]
- Owner of Polish hotel that hosted anti-Ukrainian far-right leader to donate proceeds to Ukraine - Notes From Poland - February 2nd, 2026 [February 2nd, 2026]
- Gaza Reconstruction; Ukraine Reconstruction Its All Business OpEd - Eurasia Review - February 2nd, 2026 [February 2nd, 2026]
- Donald Trump envoy Steve Witkoff to hold Russia Ukraine talks in UAE - The Jerusalem Post - February 2nd, 2026 [February 2nd, 2026]
- Ukraine war talks delayed to Wednesday, Zelensky says - Yahoo News Singapore - February 1st, 2026 [February 1st, 2026]
- US has told Ukraine it must sign peace deal with Russia to get security guarantees, source says - Reuters - February 1st, 2026 [February 1st, 2026]
- Opinion | A Slow-Cooked Peace in Ukraine - The Wall Street Journal - February 1st, 2026 [February 1st, 2026]
- 'Normal life has disappeared': Russia's energy offensive plunges Ukraine into dark and bitter cold - ABC News - February 1st, 2026 [February 1st, 2026]
- Blocking the Russian army: Ukraine's impossible mission - Le Monde.fr - February 1st, 2026 [February 1st, 2026]
- Ukraine war briefing: US reports constructive peace talks with Russia as Zelenskyy pushes for results - The Guardian - February 1st, 2026 [February 1st, 2026]
- Ukraine: US envoy reports 'constructive' talks with Russia amid mass power outage in Kyiv - France 24 - February 1st, 2026 [February 1st, 2026]
- Power outages hit Ukraine and Moldova as Kyiv struggles against the winter cold - ABC News - February 1st, 2026 [February 1st, 2026]
- Zelenskyy seeks 50,000 Russian losses a month to win the Ukraine war - Al Jazeera - February 1st, 2026 [February 1st, 2026]
- Ukraine Cant Defend the Entire Front. Russia Is Finding the Gaps. - The New York Times - February 1st, 2026 [February 1st, 2026]
- Russia's Medvedev says victory will come soon in Ukraine war - Reuters - February 1st, 2026 [February 1st, 2026]
- Ukraine receives bodies of 1,000 soldiers from Russia - Al Jazeera - February 1st, 2026 [February 1st, 2026]
- Ukraine war briefing: Zelenskyy fears rising US-Iran tensions will scupper key peace talks in UAE - The Guardian - February 1st, 2026 [February 1st, 2026]
- U.S. Envoy Reports 'Constructive' Ukraine Talks With Russia - The Moscow Times - February 1st, 2026 [February 1st, 2026]
- Troop Casualties in Ukraine War Near 2 Million, Study Finds - The New York Times - February 1st, 2026 [February 1st, 2026]
- Russian Strikes On Ukraine Kill Two Authorities - The Moscow Times - February 1st, 2026 [February 1st, 2026]
- Ukraine and Moldova hit by blackouts from grid malfunction before power restored - Reuters - February 1st, 2026 [February 1st, 2026]
- Zelenskyy announces next round of talks with US, Russia as Ukraine aims for 'real and dignified end to the war - Fox News - February 1st, 2026 [February 1st, 2026]
- Russia launched over 6,000 drones, 5,500 bombs, 158 missiles at Ukraine in Jan Zelensky - Ukrinform - February 1st, 2026 [February 1st, 2026]
- Russia claims to have captured more villages in Ukraine - Anadolu Ajans - February 1st, 2026 [February 1st, 2026]
- Zelensky says Ukraine-Russia-US talks to be held in Abu Dhabi starting Wednesday - The Times of Israel - February 1st, 2026 [February 1st, 2026]
- Next Weeks Ukraine Talks to Proceed as Winter Crisis Intensifies - Modern Diplomacy - February 1st, 2026 [February 1st, 2026]
- Ukraine War, Day 1,438: Witkoff Declares "Productive and Constructive Meetings" with Kremlin's Dmitriev - EA WorldView - February 1st, 2026 [February 1st, 2026]
- New meeting in trilateral Russia-US-Ukraine format to take place in Abu Dhabi on Feb. 4-5: Zelenskyy - Anadolu Ajans - February 1st, 2026 [February 1st, 2026]
- Russia suffers heaviest losses since World War 2 as casualties in Ukraine conflict near 2 million - The Independent - February 1st, 2026 [February 1st, 2026]
- Germany is betting big on killer drones. In Ukraine, they couldnt hit their targets. - politico.eu - February 1st, 2026 [February 1st, 2026]
- Ukraine, US, Russia to meet in UAE next week for new round of peace talks, Zelensky says - The Kyiv Independent - February 1st, 2026 [February 1st, 2026]
- Ukraine-Russia war latest: Moscow suffers heaviest battle losses since WWII with 1.2 million casualties - The Independent - February 1st, 2026 [February 1st, 2026]
- Ukraine war latest: Zelenskyy proposes 'least problematic solution' to territorial issue - and sends Kyiv dare to Putin - Sky News - February 1st, 2026 [February 1st, 2026]
- Zelenskyy announces next round of talks with US, Russia as Ukraine aims for real and dignified end to the war - wwbl.com - February 1st, 2026 [February 1st, 2026]
- Ukraine Peace Talks End on Positive Note as Zelensky Teases Future Meeting - The New York Times - January 26th, 2026 [January 26th, 2026]
- Kremlin sticks to demand that Ukraine cede all of Donbas in talks, TASS reports - Reuters - January 26th, 2026 [January 26th, 2026]
- Ukraine war latest: US insists Trump not giving up on peace ahead of Sunday talks - The Independent - January 26th, 2026 [January 26th, 2026]
- Talks With US and Ukraine in Abu Dhabi Were Constructive but Major Challenges Remain, Kremlin Says - Military.com - January 26th, 2026 [January 26th, 2026]
- Russia Cuts Its Disability Count As War Against Ukraine Wounds Hundreds of Thousands - Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty - January 26th, 2026 [January 26th, 2026]
- Bloc of Germany's Merz sceptical over prospects of Ukraine joining EU - - January 26th, 2026 [January 26th, 2026]
- Heres the latest on the first trilateral talks between Ukraine, Russia and US as negotiators set plans for future meeting - CNN - January 26th, 2026 [January 26th, 2026]
- Russia Says Talks to End War in Ukraine Will Continue - The New York Times - January 26th, 2026 [January 26th, 2026]
- Peace talks on Russia-Ukraine war end as fighting rages - BBC - January 26th, 2026 [January 26th, 2026]
- Talks with US and Ukraine in Abu Dhabi were constructive but major challenges remain, Kremlin says - ABC News - January 26th, 2026 [January 26th, 2026]
- Hungarys Orbn accuses Ukraine of election interference and summons ambassador - AP News - January 26th, 2026 [January 26th, 2026]
- Ukraine hails first trilateral talks with Russia and US as constructive as Washington says mood very upbeat - CNN - January 26th, 2026 [January 26th, 2026]
- Envoys travel the globe to push a US plan for ending Russias war in Ukraine - AP News - January 26th, 2026 [January 26th, 2026]
- January 23, 2026 Trumps NATO remarks; US, Russia and Ukraine war talks - CNN - January 26th, 2026 [January 26th, 2026]
- Kremlin Reaffirms Demand for Ukraine to Cede All of Donbas After Abu Dhabi Talks - UNITED24 Media - January 26th, 2026 [January 26th, 2026]
- Official: Talks with U.S. and Ukraine in Abu Dhabi were constructive but major challenges remain - post-gazette.com - January 26th, 2026 [January 26th, 2026]
- Russian Forces Are Liquidating the Catholic Church in Occupied Ukraine - National Catholic Register - January 26th, 2026 [January 26th, 2026]
- Hungary's Orbn accuses Ukraine of election interference and summons ambassador - WRAL - January 26th, 2026 [January 26th, 2026]
- Signs of progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks after trilateral negotiations - Washington Times - January 26th, 2026 [January 26th, 2026]
- First Trilateral Ukraine Peace Talks Ended Exactly As Expected With Russia Demanding More - HuffPost UK - January 26th, 2026 [January 26th, 2026]
- New Photos Show Evolution Of 'Hedgehog Armor' In Ukraine - Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty - January 26th, 2026 [January 26th, 2026]
- Talks with U.S. and Ukraine in Abu Dhabi were constructive but major challenges remain, Kremlin says - latimes.com - January 26th, 2026 [January 26th, 2026]
- Ukraine Becomes First to Feed Troops With AI Robotic Kitchens on the Front Line - UNITED24 Media - January 26th, 2026 [January 26th, 2026]
- Zelensky reveals US security deal for Ukraine is 100% ready to be signed as Kremlin gives update on peace talks - The Sun - January 26th, 2026 [January 26th, 2026]
- Ukraine war latest: Millions of Ukrainians without heating in -13C after Russian attack; second day of peace talks end - Sky News - January 26th, 2026 [January 26th, 2026]
- Ukraine is not losing the war, but it cannot fight forever - Michael McFaul | Substack - January 26th, 2026 [January 26th, 2026]
- Ukraine: Zelensky upbeat on US deal but Davos showed the US president to be an unreliable ally - The Conversation - January 26th, 2026 [January 26th, 2026]
- Pope Leo appeals for peace in Ukraine and in all war-torn regions - Vatican News - January 26th, 2026 [January 26th, 2026]