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Story highlights Fighting has erupted in past week at Ukraine's Donetsk airport Michael Kofman: U.S. has no good choices, only hard decisions to make

Now, as the tenuous ceasefire observed over the holidays falls apart, the question is whether this latest violation of the Minsk ceasefire agreement is the beginning of a separatist offensive to claim more territory.

It certainly looks that way.

On January 13, the leaders of Donetsk People's Republic (DNR), one of the two breakaway pro-Russian enclaves in Ukraine's Donbass region, issued Ukrainian troops an ultimatum to surrender Donetsk airport. Since then, the long standing derelict control tower, subject to months of shelling, has finally collapsed and with it any likelihood that this conflict will stay frozen over the winter. The assault triggered a Ukrainian counterattack, and erupted into a full scale conflagration.

Michael Kofman

Ukraine's defense ministry has said it has withdrawn from the main terminal at Donetsk airport, but it is doubtful that separatist forces only have that in their sights anyway. After all, although the site holds symbolic value for both sides, it is a hulking ruin and of little strategic relevance. And the leader of DNR, Alexander Zakharchenko, has made clear he believes the borders of his breakaway republic should include the entire Donetsk region, which is double the current territory he controls. Such ambitions are not likely to be realized during the freezing cold of January, but separatist forces are now engaged in combat north of Luhansk and as far south as Mariupol.

It is difficult to see Russia's army sitting out on the sidelines as all this unfolds, leaving the stage set for another battle between Ukrainian and Russian regular forces as Ukraine's leadership and army are put to the test again. True, the separatist force barely numbers 25,000-30,000, and only a fraction of it is combat-capable.

But the timing of this latest operation is clearly aimed at fostering instability in Ukraine at a moment of economic weakness, rather than taking advantage of any newfound military opportunity. Ukraine's cash reserves fell to $7.5 billion in December, while the political leadership is desperately awaiting a new tranche of funding from the IMF, without which Ukraine may soon go bankrupt.

Meanwhile, Ukraine faces an incredibly difficult year due to GDP contraction, inflation, currency devaluation, and anticipated fiscal austerity measures. Since much of its army depends on volunteer donations to survive in the field, prolonged fighting will create unbearable strain, on the people and the country. And despite Russia's economic woes, as well as the impact of Western sanctions, nothing seems to have visibly constrained Moscow's policies in Ukraine. In retrospect, it is clear Russia had no intention of starting this year with negotiations, rather than military action to change facts on the ground.

Russian leaders are for their part trapped in a dilemma of their own making. They are unable to secure Russian influence in Ukraine through the current agreement, in a manner that relieves sanctions, and satisfies separatist desires for a viable independent territory.

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Time to rethink Ukraine deal - CNN.com