The west is trying to quietly forget the war in Ukraine. It does so at its own peril – The Guardian
On the front page war, on the back page the crossword. A line from my novel The Light and the Dark sprang to mind as I travelled on a train shortly after Russias invasion of Ukraine.
Sitting across from me, a passenger was reading the paper: on the front page, there was the war; on the back page, the crossword. Time has passed since then, and the daily atrocities have started to disappear from the headlines, despite the battles growing more savage each day. But no one in the west wants to hear about war any more people are tired of horror and solidarity. They want peace, no price rises, a quiet life and a nice holiday.
Its not the first time my writing has sounded the alarm over horrors to come. Before the annexation of Crimea, I used an analogy with the Russian folk tale Teremok to describe Europes uncertain future. Once upon a time, there were some forest animals who lived together in a cosy little house a teremok. One day, a frog knocks on the door. Knock, knock! Who dwells in this teremok? Let me in, Id like to live here with you. The animals let the frog in, and everyone agrees that it is a happy and cosy home. They even let in Kyward the hare and Reynard the fox there is room for everyone in the teremok. But then along comes Bruin the bear. No matter how hard he tries, he cant fit into the teremok. The bear flies into a rage and sits down on the house. And thats the end of the teremok and of the fairytale.
But no warnings were heeded. In 2014, shortly after the annexation of Crimea, I wrote, with increasing urgency, that in the 21st century there is no such thing as a distant, localised war any more. Every war is now a European war. And this European war has already begun. I warned that Vladimir Putins annexation of Crimea would create a wave of patriotism. Sooner or later, this wave will break, and then Putin will need a fresh wind. I wrote of how years of chronic instability in the Balkans would create cripplingly high levels of migration to European countries, with an inconceivably greater wave of refugees from Ukraine.
Back then, there was still a chance to stop the aggressor. Yet European politicians closed their eyes to reality in an effort to curry favour with voters. Voters wanted peace then, too; jobs, no price rises and nice holidays. Corrupt Russian experts insisted that we should understand Putins point of view and make concessions.
And now, here we are: in the middle of a European war, facing an unprecedented wave of refugees from Ukraine, and wondering how our politicians could have been so blind. No one listens to writers any more. The only true lesson we can draw from history is that history teaches nothing.
In Germany, intellectuals have collected thousands of signatures on a petition demanding their own government stop delivering weapons to Ukraine, because it could lead to a third world war. We want a policy of peace, not war, they write. But the third world war has already begun. It started in 2014. How can you cure someones blindness, if they want to be blind?
The question now is, how and when will this war end? The war against Nazi Germany didnt end with Hitlers death, but with a devastating military defeat. Putins death one day is inevitable, but Russias defeat is not.
The answer boils down to authenticity. Some tsars are real, some are fake. If Holy Russia expands its territory and other peoples bow before the autocrat in Moscow, the vassalled population that toils and struggles and heroically sheds its blood for the sacred fatherland thinks it is a blessing from God. And then it doesnt matter very much how the tsar came to power or how he rules over his subjects. He can butcher them in their millions, destroy thousands of churches and execute the priests all that matters is that the tsar is real, for then the enemy will tremble and the Holy Land will extend. Thats how it was with Stalin.
Conversely, military failures and the loss of even a small part of the Holy Land will be seen by the tsars subjects as a clear sign that the tsar is not blessed that he is an illegitimate fake. Did he botch the war with Japan? Did he fail to subjugate the Chechens? If so, that man on the throne is a con artist posing as a tsar. Thats how it was with Nicholas II and Boris Yeltsin.
Putin legitimised his presidency by regaining Crimea, but his legitimacy is evaporating with his inability to win against Ukraine. The next tsar will, in turn, have to prove himself by achieving victories in the war against the world. And if, for this Putin, threatening to deploy tactical nuclear weapons is merely one aspect of hybrid warfare, for the next Putin deploying them may become a necessary tool in his effort to secure power.
The next Putin, too, will be nothing more than an actor who cannot change his role. His role will be pre-written by the entire Russian power structure, which doesnt worry about how many people will die in Ukraine or Russia or wherever; it isnt concerned about the resources it spends, the number of weapons it deploys or the level of military casualties. And if the Russian quality of life deteriorates? So be it the regime never did care much about the happiness of its own people.
Anyone who is part of this power structure is not afraid to attack the west. After all, who should they be scared of? If a rocket lands on a Nato members territory, what then? More meetings, statements, declarations, calls for peace? Its high time the free world realised that it is not fighting a mad dictator but an autonomous and self-regenerating aggressive power system.
The Russian autocracys ancient social structure has been preserved by the storehouse of history for centuries, and sheds its skin only to return in a new guise: as the Golden Hordes Khanate or the tsardom of Moscow, as the Romanovs empire or Stalins communist Soviet Union, and most recently as Putins managed democracy. And now the Russian Federation is shedding its skin once more. What will emerge from the undisturbed foundations of the undefeated military dictatorship? Could it be a free constitutional democracy that willingly forgoes nuclear weapons? Does this sound likely to you?
Before the second world war, too, people wanted peace, no price rises and nice holidays. The voters hoped that their own democratic governments in France and Britain would pursue a policy of peace with Hitler rather than one of war. What followed is history, encompassed in Winston Churchills ruthlessly honest and tragic message to voters: I have nothing to offer but blood, toil, tears and sweat.
Sooner or later, similar promises will have to be made instead of nice holidays, European voters must steel themselves for great sacrifice, struggle and hardship, because that is the price we must pay for peace.
Mikhail Shishkin is a novelist. He has won the Russian Booker, Russian National Bestseller and Big Book prizes
Do you have an opinion on the issues raised in this article? If you would like to submit a letter of up to 300 words to be considered for publication, email it to us at guardian.letters@theguardian.com
Read the rest here:
The west is trying to quietly forget the war in Ukraine. It does so at its own peril - The Guardian
- Trump News Updates: Epstein, Tariffs and Ukraine War - The New York Times - July 28th, 2025 [July 28th, 2025]
- Russia at the gates: How Ukraine defended a strategic city for months - Reuters - July 28th, 2025 [July 28th, 2025]
- Trump Gives Russia Less Than Two Weeks to End Its War in Ukraine - The New York Times - July 28th, 2025 [July 28th, 2025]
- Trump says hes shortening the 50-day deadline for Russia to end the war in Ukraine - AP News - July 28th, 2025 [July 28th, 2025]
- Russia's sinking fake ships with exploding naval drones. The training likely isn't for war with Ukraine. - Business Insider - July 28th, 2025 [July 28th, 2025]
- I already know the answer Trump to shorten Ukraine deadline for Putin to 1012 days - The Kyiv Independent - July 28th, 2025 [July 28th, 2025]
- Ukraine war briefing: attack on Kyiv injures eight, Trump and Starmer to discuss applying pressure on Putin - The Guardian - July 28th, 2025 [July 28th, 2025]
- Trump gives Putin new 10 or 12 days deadline to end war in Ukraine - politico.eu - July 28th, 2025 [July 28th, 2025]
- Trump reduces Russia deadline to end Ukraine invasion to 10 to 12 days from original 50: No reason to wait that long - New York Post - July 28th, 2025 [July 28th, 2025]
- Brutality over precision What the Army is learning from Russia in Ukraine - Task & Purpose - July 28th, 2025 [July 28th, 2025]
- E.U. Cuts Aid to Ukraine Over Corruption Concerns - The New York Times - July 28th, 2025 [July 28th, 2025]
- Five killed as Ukraine and Russia trade drone attacks - BBC - July 28th, 2025 [July 28th, 2025]
- Russia's economy is now so militarized, it may keep expanding its army even after the Ukraine war - Business Insider - July 28th, 2025 [July 28th, 2025]
- Trump issues new ultimatum calling on Putin to end Ukraine war in '10 or 12 days' - France 24 - July 28th, 2025 [July 28th, 2025]
- Ukraine, Russia attack each other's territory after latest round of peace talks - Reuters - July 28th, 2025 [July 28th, 2025]
- That idiot Putin wants to take it all: Russias kamikaze tactics fuel a slow advance in Ukraine - The Guardian - July 28th, 2025 [July 28th, 2025]
- Trump gives Putin 10 to 12 days to agree Ukraine ceasefire - The Telegraph - July 28th, 2025 [July 28th, 2025]
- Ukraine war briefing: Drones hit Russian electronic warfare plant and disrupt railway and air travel - The Guardian - July 28th, 2025 [July 28th, 2025]
- Binge, borrow and deal: Europe digs deep to buy U.S. arms for Ukraine - The Washington Post - July 27th, 2025 [July 27th, 2025]
- Putin may be miscalculating Trumps resolve on Ukraine - Atlantic Council - July 27th, 2025 [July 27th, 2025]
- Ukraine is now an indispensable security partner for the US and Europe - Atlantic Council - July 27th, 2025 [July 27th, 2025]
- Russia says it has captured two villages in Ukraine, Ukraine reports heavy fighting - Reuters - July 27th, 2025 [July 27th, 2025]
- Battles of the mind: drawing Ukraine in this endless war | Ella Baron - The Guardian - July 27th, 2025 [July 27th, 2025]
- Zelenskyys Anti-Corruption Climbdown: What It Means For Ukraine - Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty - July 27th, 2025 [July 27th, 2025]
- School-leavers losing their lives for Russia in Putin's war with Ukraine - BBC - July 27th, 2025 [July 27th, 2025]
- Ukraine war briefing: Anti-corruption agencies endorse bill restoring their independence - The Guardian - July 27th, 2025 [July 27th, 2025]
- Five killed after Russia and Ukraine trade aerial bombardments - Sky News - July 27th, 2025 [July 27th, 2025]
- 4 people killed, multiple others injured in Russia and Ukraine as they trade aerial attacks - AP News - July 27th, 2025 [July 27th, 2025]
- Russia, Ukraine truce talks overshadowed by new fighting - Vatican News - July 27th, 2025 [July 27th, 2025]
- What China really wants for Russia and Ukraine - The Hill - July 27th, 2025 [July 27th, 2025]
- North Koreas military is being transformed on the battlefields of Ukraine so why is Seoul silent? - The Guardian - July 24th, 2025 [July 24th, 2025]
- State Department OKs $322 million in proposed weapons sales to Ukraine - Military Times - July 24th, 2025 [July 24th, 2025]
- Israel, Ukraine To Hold Talks On Countering "Threats" Posed By Iran - NDTV - July 24th, 2025 [July 24th, 2025]
- In Kyiv, Saar announces Israel-Ukraine strategic dialogue on Iranian threat - The Times of Israel - July 24th, 2025 [July 24th, 2025]
- Ukraine sees first major anti-government protests since start of war, as Zelensky moves to weaken anti-corruption agencies - CNN - July 24th, 2025 [July 24th, 2025]
- Zelenskyy faces outcry after signing a bill curbing Ukraine's anti-corruption agencies - NPR - July 24th, 2025 [July 24th, 2025]
- Russia and Ukraine to Renew Talks, but Peace Remains Elusive - The New York Times - July 24th, 2025 [July 24th, 2025]
- Russia and Ukraine Met Again. Heres Where the Peace Talks Stand - The New York Times - July 24th, 2025 [July 24th, 2025]
- Ukraine and Russia agree to new prisoner swap during brief peace talks - France 24 - July 24th, 2025 [July 24th, 2025]
- Kremlin says Putin open to peace with Ukraine only after Russias goals have been achieved - PBS - July 24th, 2025 [July 24th, 2025]
- Russia and Ukraine agree prisoner swap, but little other progress in Istanbul talks - CNN - July 24th, 2025 [July 24th, 2025]
- Bucks County man died a Ukraine war hero. He is not the only American on the frontlines - PhillyBurbs - July 24th, 2025 [July 24th, 2025]
- Russia and Ukraine Are No Closer to Peace After Trumps Threats - WSJ - The Wall Street Journal - July 24th, 2025 [July 24th, 2025]
- Zelensky Faces Criticism in Ukraine Over Effort to Rein In Corruption Agencies - The New York Times - July 24th, 2025 [July 24th, 2025]
- Swarms of Russian drones attack Ukraine nightly as Moscow puts new emphasis on the deadly weapon - AP News - July 24th, 2025 [July 24th, 2025]
- Outrage in Ukraine as the government attacks anti-corruption watchdogs - The Economist - July 24th, 2025 [July 24th, 2025]
- The Ukraine war will shape the world - Financial Times - July 24th, 2025 [July 24th, 2025]
- US Approves $322 Million Military Aid Package for Ukraine, Including HAWK Air Defense and Bradley Vehicles - UNITED24 Media - July 24th, 2025 [July 24th, 2025]
- Wartime Protests in Ukraine Target Zelensky for the First Time - The New York Times - July 24th, 2025 [July 24th, 2025]
- Zelensky: Ukraine and Russia to hold peace talks on Wednesday - BBC - July 24th, 2025 [July 24th, 2025]
- Faint Signs of Life Appear in Effort to Halt Ukraine War - The New York Times - July 24th, 2025 [July 24th, 2025]
- The Air Battle That Could Decide the Russia-Ukraine War - foreignpolicy.com - July 24th, 2025 [July 24th, 2025]
- Ukraine backlash grows after Zelensky strips anti-corruption bodies of independence - BBC - July 24th, 2025 [July 24th, 2025]
- Ukraine, Russia hold third round of peace talks in Istanbul, agree to another major prisoner exchange - The Kyiv Independent - July 24th, 2025 [July 24th, 2025]
- Ukraine-Russia war latest: Prisoners of war return to Kyiv after Istanbul peace talks end in less than an hour - The Independent - July 24th, 2025 [July 24th, 2025]
- Trumps Name in the Epstein Files, and Rare Protests in Ukraine - The New York Times - July 24th, 2025 [July 24th, 2025]
- Saar begins diplomatic visit to Ukraine, expected to meet Zelensky - The Times of Israel - July 22nd, 2025 [July 22nd, 2025]
- Zelenskiy says Ukraine, Russia to hold peace talks in Turkey on Wednesday - Reuters - July 22nd, 2025 [July 22nd, 2025]
- Russia launches 42 drone strikes on Ukraine overnight, hours after agreeing to Istanbul peace talks - as it happened - The Guardian - July 22nd, 2025 [July 22nd, 2025]
- US and Germany agree to deliver five Patriot air defence systems to Ukraine, Berlin says - Euronews.com - July 22nd, 2025 [July 22nd, 2025]
- Trumps shift on Ukraine has been dramatic but will it change the war? | Rajan Menon - The Guardian - July 22nd, 2025 [July 22nd, 2025]
- Putin stalls. Trump changes his mind. Ukraine targets Moscow. Latest on the war. - USA Today - July 22nd, 2025 [July 22nd, 2025]
- Preparations to deliver Patriot missile systems to Ukraine under way, Natos top Europe commander says as it happened - The Guardian - July 22nd, 2025 [July 22nd, 2025]
- Swarms of Russian drones attack Ukraine nightly as Moscow puts new emphasis on the deadly weapon - ABC News - July 22nd, 2025 [July 22nd, 2025]
- Why Putin keeps making the same Ukraine mistakes - Lowy Institute - July 22nd, 2025 [July 22nd, 2025]
- Ukraine Ups Its Arms Production, Asking Allies to Pay for It - The New York Times - July 22nd, 2025 [July 22nd, 2025]
- Ukraine Scrambling To Fight Against Growing Russian Shahed-136 Threat - The War Zone - July 22nd, 2025 [July 22nd, 2025]
- Jewish funders must refocus on Ukraine before its too late - eJewishPhilanthropy - July 22nd, 2025 [July 22nd, 2025]
- Zelenskyy renews offer to meet with Putin as officials say Russian attacks kill a child in Ukraine - AP News - July 22nd, 2025 [July 22nd, 2025]
- Ukraine, Russia to resume peace negotiations hosted by Turkey - Yahoo Home - July 22nd, 2025 [July 22nd, 2025]
- Ukraine war briefing: Russia insists on sticking to its war demands amid Trump sanctions threat - The Guardian - July 22nd, 2025 [July 22nd, 2025]
- Kremlin says Putin is ready to discuss peace in Ukraine but wants to achieve goals - Reuters - July 22nd, 2025 [July 22nd, 2025]
- Russia says it favours new round of peace talks with Ukraine, highlights gulf between them - Reuters - July 22nd, 2025 [July 22nd, 2025]
- Army deep dive into Russian tactics in Ukraine says global conflict with West will persist - Stars and Stripes - July 22nd, 2025 [July 22nd, 2025]
- Why Russia Is Gaining Ground in Ukraine - The New York Times - July 22nd, 2025 [July 22nd, 2025]
- Ukraine Has a Self-Inflicted Handicap in Its War for Survival - Bloomberg.com - July 22nd, 2025 [July 22nd, 2025]
- EU Warns Ukraine Over New Law That Could Undermine Anti-Corruption Agencies - united24media.com - July 22nd, 2025 [July 22nd, 2025]
- Ukraine offers Russia new peace talks next week - NBC News - July 20th, 2025 [July 20th, 2025]
- This is what Ukraine could do with US Tomahawk missiles - The Kyiv Independent - July 20th, 2025 [July 20th, 2025]
- Why are mentally ill soldiers being drafted in Ukraine? - dw.com - July 20th, 2025 [July 20th, 2025]