Russia’s Coercive Diplomacy: Why Did the Kremlin Mass Its Forces Near Ukraine This Spring? – Foreign Policy Research Institute
During March and April 2021, the Russian military conducted a large-scale buildup in its regions bordering Ukraine, including Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014. Scores of videos appeared on TikTok, Telegram, Twitter, and other social media sites showing Russian military equipment, including tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, artillery, and air defense systems, moving toward or appearing in the vicinity of Ukraines borders. The United States Department of Defenses spokesperson John Kirby told reporters that the Russian buildup was even larger than during the peak of the fighting in 2014. Ukrainian officials estimated that the Russian military buildup would reach a total of 120,000 Russian troops with more than fifty-six battalion tactical groups (BTG). United States defense officials gave a lower estimate that 48 BTGs had moved into the border area and 80,000 Russian troops were in Crimea or elsewhere near Ukraines borders. To put this in perspective, the Russian military has approximately 850,000-900,000 servicemembers in total, and 168 constant readiness BTGs, according to Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. If these estimates were accurate, the Russian military massed roughly 10-15% of its total manpower and approximately one third of its BTGs near Ukraines borders.
In response to the buildup, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, and President Joe Biden all called their Russian counterparts to discuss the situation. U.S. European Command (EUCOM) raised its alert status to its highest level. The buildup also coincided with an increase in fighting along the line of contact, with at least 36 Ukrainian servicemen killed thus far in 2021. The movement of Russian forces led to intense speculation about Russias intentions, including fears of a large-scale ground invasion. However, U.S. intelligence indicated that a large-scale ground invasion was unlikely because of a lack of prepositioned spare parts, field hospitals, ammunition, and other logistics necessary for such an operation. Likewise, EUCOM commander General Tod Wolters said on April 15 that there was a low to medium risk of a Russian ground invasion of Ukraine in the coming weeks.
On April 22, after the end of a large-scale exercise at the Opuk training area in Crimea, which included an amphibious landing, a helicopter air assault operation with two companies, and a multi-battalion airborne operation with more than two thousand paratroopers and sixty vehicles parachuted from forty Il-76MD transport aircraft, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that the winter verification tests for the Western and Southern Military Districts had been a success and the troops would return to their permanent bases. However, he indicated that equipment from Central Military Districts 41st Combined Arms Army, which included BM-27 Uragan multiple launch rocket systems and Iskander-M short-range ballistic missile systems and other heavy equipment, would remain at the Pogonovo training area in Voronezh near Ukraines border until the Zapad 2021 strategic exercise in September. Furthermore, Shoigu did not state clearly whether all of the equipment and units deployed near Ukraines borders outside of Crimea would also return to their bases, nor how those units were employed during the snap inspection.
Two weeks after Shoigus announcement, U.S. defense officials said that Russia had removed only a few thousand troops and that there were approximately 80,000 servicemen near Ukraines borders, despite Shoigus order for most of those units to return to their permanent bases by May 1. Thus Russia can still escalate rapidly in Ukraine in the future, though the immediate threat of a serious escalation of fighting in the Donbas appears to have passed with Shoigus announcement.
Continue Reading
Download Russias Coercive Diplomacy
Read the rest here:
Russia's Coercive Diplomacy: Why Did the Kremlin Mass Its Forces Near Ukraine This Spring? - Foreign Policy Research Institute
- A Landscape of Death: Whats Left Where Ukraine Invaded Russia - The New York Times - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Ukraine-Russia war latest: Trump to send weapons to Kyiv after Putins forces kill two in drone attack - The Independent - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Russia attacks west Ukraine with drones and missiles, kills two - Reuters - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Trump said he'd end Ukraine war in 24 hours. Now his patience with Putin is wearing thin. - USA Today - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- US is selling weapons to NATO allies to give to Ukraine, Trump says - AP News - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Russia Intensifies Its Air War in Ukraine - NPR - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Trump expected to deliver weapons to Ukraine through Nato allies - The Guardian - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- 2 dead as Russia attacks Ukraine overnight with almost 600 drones, Kyiv says - ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Senate Backs Ukraine Aid In Draft Military Spending Bill Ahead Of Trump's Statement On Russia - Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Trump Says NATO Countries Will Buy Weapons to Give to Ukraine - The New York Times - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Senators want safeguards on Hegseth meddling with Ukraine aid in new defense bill - USA Today - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- How do Russians think the war in Ukraine will end? - BBC - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Russia-Ukraine war: What are frustrated Trumps next options with Putin? - Al Jazeera - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Rubio slams Russia over 'lack of progress' toward peace in Ukraine - Politico - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- U.S. weapons flowing again to Ukraine, but not fast enough to stop Russia's drone and missile strikes - CBS News - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Putins war in Ukraine may cost him control of the south Caucasus - The Economist - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Trump says he struck deal to send US weapons to Ukraine through NATO - CNN - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Putin Escalates His War Against Ukraine, Undeterred by Trumps Words - The New York Times - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- 'Russia's tactic is obvious' Shahed drone 'terror' now reaches all of Ukraine - The Kyiv Independent - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Conference commits over 10 bln euros to Ukraine rebuilding, Italy says - Reuters - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Russian drone and cruise missile attacks kill at least 2 in Ukraine - AP News - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Rubio says US and Russia have exchanged new ideas for Ukraine peace talks - AP News - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Leonardo may offer drone tech but has no plans for plant in Ukraine, CEO tells paper - Reuters - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Trump resumes weapons deliveries to Ukraine - politico.eu - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Russia batters Ukraine with more than 700 drones, the largest barrage of the war, officials say - AP News - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Unhappy with Putin, Trump and Congress move closer to Ukraine - The Washington Post - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Trump unloads on Putin after promising more military aid to Ukraine - NBC News - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Chinese father and son detained in Ukraine, accused of trying to smuggle out info on guided missile system - CBS News - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Ukraine's Zelenskiy to hold more meetings with US officials in Rome - Reuters - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Largest Russian Long-Range Drone Onslaught Of The War Rains Down On Ukraine - The War Zone - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Italy opens Ukraine rebuilding conference as doubts of US defense help remain - AP News - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Russia launches largest drone attack on Ukraine as Kyiv pushes US for air defense aid - ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Trump Asked About Not Knowing Who Paused Ukraine Weapons: 'I Would Know' - Newsweek - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- 'Trump should fire him': Jeffries reacts to Hegseth reportedly pausing Ukraine weapons - CNN - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Trump says U.S. will resume sending weapons to Ukraine after pausing last week - NPR - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- How Ukraine is Adapting, Enduring, and Striking Back - War on the Rocks - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Trumps sudden shift on weapons for Ukraine takes the war back to square one - CNN - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Trumps Frustration With Putin Preceded Resumption of U.S. Weapons to Ukraine - The New York Times - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- How I Changed My Mind About the War in Ukraine - learnliberty.org - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- 2 killed, 16 injured as Kyiv slammed with drones, ballistic missiles in Russian mass attack against Ukraine for 2nd night in row - The Kyiv... - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Europe's top rights court finds Russia responsible for downing of MH17, rights abuses in Ukraine - Reuters - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Russian Minister Who Had Led Region Later Invaded by Ukraine Is Found Dead - The New York Times - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- In Sumy, Ukraine, the front line is drawing near but we refuse to leave - Al Jazeera - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Ukraine war briefing: US to resume shipments of weapons for Ukrainian defence - The Guardian - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Trump embarrasses the Pentagon with a U-turn on Ukraine - The Economist - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Trump says U.S. will send more weapons to Ukraine - The Washington Post - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Trump says US will send more weapons to Ukraine - Reuters - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Trump to Resume Sending Weapons to Ukraine - WSJ - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Opinion | The Case for Cutting Off Weapons to Ukraine - WSJ - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- US to send more weapons to Ukraine, Trump says - Al Jazeera - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- 'We have to': Trump sending weapons to Ukraine after expressing disappointment with Putin - USA Today - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- US backs Natos latest pledge of support for Ukraine, but in reality seems to have abandoned its European partners - The Conversation - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Trump says US will send more weapons to Ukraine: They have to be able to defend themselves - New York Post - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Macrons U.K. State Visit: Migrants and the War in Ukraine Are on the Agenda - The New York Times - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- What Is Trump Trying to Do With Russia and Ukraine Now? - Slate - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Trump says US will resume weapon shipments to Ukraine days after pause - The Independent - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- US to resume delivery of 'defensive weapons' to Ukraine, says Trump - France 24 - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Trump says he'll send Ukraine more weapons: "They have to be able to defend themselves" - Axios - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- The doctor fighting for women's health on Ukraine's front line - BBC - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- US envoy Kellogg to attend Ukraine aid conference in Rome - Reuters - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Donald Trump says US will send Ukraine more arms - Financial Times - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Russia and Ukraine trade drone strikes as Kyiv signs deals to boost drone production - AP News - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- As Ukraine awaits stalled US weapons, Trump says he's 'helping a lot' in war with Russia - The Kyiv Independent - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Opinion | Trump Is Disappointed With Putin on Ukraine - WSJ - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Through Fire and Faith: Stories of Resilience in Ukraine - CityWatch LA - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- How Trump Can Help Ukraine Win The War And Make Russia Pay For It - Forbes - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Kellogg, Umerov set to meet, discuss resumption of US military aid to Ukraine, Politico reports - The Kyiv Independent - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- 'They have to be able to defend themselves' Trump says US will send additional weapons shipments to Ukraine, criticizes Putin - The Kyiv Independent - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- 11 injured as Russia attacks Ukraine with hundreds of drones - ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- Russia hits Ukraine with largest aerial attack as Trump talks to Zelenskyy and Putin - NPR - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- Trump has good conversation with Zelenskyy after heavy bombardment of Ukraine by Russia - The Guardian - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- Opinion | Dont believe the conventional wisdom. Ukraine can still lose. - The Washington Post - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- Ukraine hits Russian airfield day after mass wave of strikes - dw.com - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- Trump Hints At New Sanctions On Russia Amid Ongoing Fighting With Ukraine - Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- Russia to Involve Laos Troops in Its War Against Ukraine. Heres What We Know - UNITED24 Media - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- Dutch intelligence services say Russia has stepped up use of banned chemical weapons in Ukraine - AP News - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- Ukraine's top general warns of possible new Russian offensive in northeast - Reuters - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- Ukraine's Zelenskiy says latest phone call with Trump his most productive yet - Reuters - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- Russia launches hundreds of drones at Ukraine just hours after Putin-Trump call Europe live - The Guardian - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Hegseth halted weapons for Ukraine despite military analysis that the aid wouldnt jeopardize U.S. readiness - NBC News - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]