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Proxy Russian authorities in four occupied areas of Ukraine all announce referendums for joining Russia this weekend

The proxy Russian authorities in four occupied areas of Ukraine Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia have all announced on Tuesday their intentions to hold referendums between 23-27 September on joining the Russian Federation.

The sudden rush to hold a vote comes as Ukraines counteroffensive has reclaimed territory in the east of the country, including a small symbolic toehold in the Luhansk region, which had been totally under the control of Russian proxies.

Doubts have been cast on how effectively the occupying authorities will be able to organise referendums at such short notice, although preparations were previously being carried out.

According to Russian news agency RIA, in a direct appeal to Russian President Vladimir Putin, the self-proclaimed leader of the so-called Donetsk Peoples Republic Denis Pushilin said: I ask you to consider the issue of joining the Donetsk Peoples Republic into the Russian Federation as soon as possible in the event of a positive decision on the results of the referendum, which we have no doubts about.

Some Russian media outlets have reported that Putin may address the Russian nation later today on the topic, although this has not been confirmed by the Kremlin.

The move comes on the same day that Russias parliament, the Duma, voted to toughen punishments for desertion and insubordination in times of military mobilisation.

Updated at 09.57EDT

Key events

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Any referendums on joining Russia in Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories would destroy any remaining window for talks between Kyiv and Moscow, Ukrainian publication Liga.net cited the Ukrainian presidents office spokesman as saying on Tuesday.

Without the referendums, there is still the smallest chance for a diplomatic solution. After the referendums - no, Liga.net quoted Serhiy Nykyforov as saying.

He made the comments in response to Russian-installed officials in four occupied Ukrainian regions announcing plans for referendums over the next week on formally joining Russia, Reuters reported.

The inmates of penal colony No 8, in the Tambov region 300 miles south of Moscow, rushed to their cell windows when they heard the sound of a helicopter approaching on a late afternoon in July.

No one ever uses a chopper to get down here. We were curious what the big occasion was, recalled Ivan, one of the inmates.

Half an hour later, he and the others were ordered to report to the prisons main square where two heavily guarded men were waiting.

We couldnt believe our eyes, he would really come all the way to visit us, said Ivan, who is halfway through a 23-year sentence for murder and, like other inmates interviewed, asked to use a pseudonym out of concerns for his safety.

But there he was standing in front of us: Prigozhin, in the flesh, urging us to join the Wagner private military group and fight in Ukraine.

Four Russian-occupied regions in Ukraine have said they are planning to hold referendums on joining the Russian Federation in a series of coordinated announcements that could indicate the Kremlin has made a decision to formally annexe the territories.

Moscow may be betting that a formal annexation would help halt Russian territorial losses, after a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive that has reclaimed large portions of territory in Kharkiv region.

The occupied Donetsk and Luhansk regions have said they are ready to hold polls, which will be universally viewed as rigged, as soon as this week, with announcements also made in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. Some Russian media have reported that Vladimir Putin may deliver a speech this evening on a potential annexation.

As Ukrainian troops now begin making advances in the Luhansk region, Russia may be worried that it cant win on the battlefield and threaten a potential escalation, including a formal declaration of war or even a nuclear attack, by claiming to defend its own territory.

Everything thats happening today is an absolutely unequivocal ultimatum to Ukraine and the West, wrote Tatiana Stanovaya, an expert on Kremlin politics and founder of R.Politik. Either Ukraine retreats or there will be nuclear war.

To guarantee victory, Putin is ready to hold referendums immediately in order to obtain the right (in his understanding) to use nuclear weapons to defend Russian territory.

With Germanys gas storage facilities now at just over 90% capacity, Robert Habeck, the economy minister has said Germany now stands a good chance of getting through the winter.

Germany is ahead of its goal to have the subterranean stores 95% full by the start of November.

On the sidelines of a visit to Lubmin in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, where building work has started on a floating platform for LNG facilities which are due to open in January, Habeck said:

If we succeed in saving gas, and if were lucky with the weather, then we have a good chance of getting through the winter.

What Habeck means, in short, is if the winter is harsh, the storage facilities may not be capable of compensating for the higher usage of gas. Last year, Germany used around 999 terawatt hours (TWh) of gas.

The storage facilities are capable of storing around a quarter to 28% of that amount. Around 220 TWh is currently available. But a very cold January for example, like Germany experienced last year, could consume half of the available reserves.

On Tuesday the embattled Habeck who has come under fierce criticism in recent weeks for his energy policies, voiced doubt that his plans for a gas levy - to be paid by gas consumers to compensate gas suppliers that have had to buy in alternative sources of gas after Russia slowed down then cut off its supplies completely - were constitutionally viable.

His proposal had prompted a huge backlash over concerns that companies that had profited from the energy price surge might benefit from the levy.

The governments plans to nationalise the gas provider Uniper, which were confirmed on Tuesday afternoon, have also further called the sense or fairness of such a levy into doubt.

Updated at 11.14EDT

The Guardians Shaun Walker has tweeted that whether intentional or not, the announcements of referendums in Russian-held parts of the Ukraine will result in escalation of the conflict.

He said:

The proxy Russian authorities in four occupied areas of Ukraine Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia have all announced on Tuesday their intentions to hold referendums between 23-27 September on joining the Russian Federation.

The sudden rush to hold a vote comes as Ukraines counteroffensive has reclaimed territory in the east of the country, including a small symbolic toehold in the Luhansk region, which had been totally under the control of Russian proxies.

Doubts have been cast on how effectively the occupying authorities will be able to organise referendums at such short notice, although preparations were previously being carried out.

According to Russian news agency RIA, in a direct appeal to Russian President Vladimir Putin, the self-proclaimed leader of the so-called Donetsk Peoples Republic Denis Pushilin said: I ask you to consider the issue of joining the Donetsk Peoples Republic into the Russian Federation as soon as possible in the event of a positive decision on the results of the referendum, which we have no doubts about.

Some Russian media outlets have reported that Putin may address the Russian nation later today on the topic, although this has not been confirmed by the Kremlin.

The move comes on the same day that Russias parliament, the Duma, voted to toughen punishments for desertion and insubordination in times of military mobilisation.

Updated at 09.57EDT

The news of a flurry of announcements that the proxy-Russian authorities in occupied areas of Ukraine will all be trying to hold referendums this weekend about joining the Russian Federation does not appear to have gone down well with the Russian stock market.

Reuters reports that stocks plunged to their lowest in a month as moves in Moscow reignited martial law fears with new legislation, and the plans to hold referendums in Ukraine sped forwards apace.

Russias parliament on Tuesday approved a bill to toughen punishments for a host of crimes such as desertion, damage to military property and insubordination if they were committed during military mobilisation or combat situations.

Indices are clearly collapsing amid fears around the risks of mobilisation and martial law, Tinkoff Investments analyst Kirill Komarov told Reuters, adding that Tuesdays collapse would likely be the rouble-based MOEX indexs sharpest drop since June 30.

My colleague Shaun Walker points out that there may be some issues with the planned referendums at the weekend.

The RIA Novosti news agency is now also reporting that the occupied Ukrainian territories of Donetsk and Luhansk will hold referendums on joining the Russian Federation from 23 to 27 September.

Its report quotes the self-proclaimed leader of the Donetsk Peoples Republic Denis Pushilin, and says:

The long-suffering people of Donbas have earned the right to be part of Russia, which they have always considered their homeland, Pushilin said in an address to Vladimir Putin.

I ask you to consider the issue of joining the Donetsk Peoples Republic into the Russian Federation as soon as possible in the event of a positive decision on the results of the referendum, which we have no doubts about, the message says.

According to the DPR authorities, 9,044 residents of the republic, including 120 children, were killed during the hostilities.

The figures given by RIA have not been independently verified. The Donetsk Peoples Republic and the Luhansk Peoples Republic are not recognised as legitimate authorities by any other UN member states apart from Russia, Syria and North Korea.

If you want some background reading on the issue of a possible referendum in the occupied Kherson region of Ukraine, a month ago Shaun Walker and Pjotr Sauer were able to conduct a series of telephone interviews with people there. At the time they wrote:

Residents remain unsure about what the next few months might bring: a swift Ukrainian counteroffensive to regain control, a protracted battle that turns the city to rubble, or Russia carrying out its sham referendum and annexing the territory.

You can read more of their article from August here: A referendum is not right: occupied Kherson looks to uncertain future

Ukraines foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba has responded to the hurried calls to hold a series of referendums in occupied territories in eastern and southern Ukraine to join the Russian Federation. He has tweeted:

Sham referendums will not change anything. Neither will any hybrid mobilisation. Russia has been and remains an aggressor illegally occupying parts of Ukrainian land. Ukraine has every right to liberate its territories and will keep liberating them whatever Russia has to say.

Updated at 09.15EDT

Link:
Russia-Ukraine war: Putin-backed separatists in Kherson want vote on joining Russia amid further calls for lightning referendums live - The Guardian