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A Ukrainian serviceman of the 3rd Independent Tank Iron Brigade looks out of a tank hatch at a position near the front line in Kharkiv region, on June 15, 2023, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. | Sergey Bobok/AFP/Getty Images

With help from Paul McLeary

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If Ukraines supporters were hoping for a breakthrough after Kyivs forces made a new push in the southeast of the country last week, they were sorely disappointed.

The latest attack, which saw Ukraine throw in thousands of Western-trained reinforcements to drive south from the town of Orikhiv, has not yet yielded significant results, U.S. Defense Department officials told NatSec Daily this week, with one noting that the gains are being measured in the hundreds of meters.

Ukraine now has 150,000 troops committed to the operation across three axes of attack, including multiple Western-trained brigades, said one of the DOD officials, who like others interviewed for this newsletter was granted anonymity to discuss operational details. But Kyiv is still keeping a number of forces in reserve, as soldiers continue probing heavily mined Russian defenses for weak spots.

They are making mostly small, incremental gains on all three axes, the official said. They are still facing stiff Russian resistance second and third layers of defenses.

Pentagon spokesperson Brig. Gen. PATRICK RYDER referred questions about the counteroffensive to the Ukrainian military, but noted that it has and will continue to be a tough fight for them.

Even when Ukrainian forces manage to clear a minefield and advance, Russia will use artillery and helicopters to drop more mines behind them, trying to trap units between minefields, according to a person who advises the Ukrainian government.

The American-made Vampire counter-drone systems, a laser-guided missile launcher that can be quickly installed in a truck bed, are finally arriving, which will give the front lines a small, mobile air defense capability that could potentially help protect those units, the person said.

The Biden administrations latest package of military aid for Ukraine clocked in at $400 million for additional air defenses, artillery and other ammunition, as well as armored vehicles and anti-armor weapons. DOD expects another tranche to be announced as soon as early next week.

Ukrainian forces are eagerly awaiting the arrival of the U.S. Armys M1 Abrams main battle tank, which is expected as soon as early September and will help punch through Russias defensive lines. But as the operation grinds on, DOD officials expect the counteroffensive will last at least through the fall and possibly into the winter.

A message from Lockheed Martin:

Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.

Many of todays military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more.

STATES WATCHFUL EYE: The State Departments internal watchdog is scrutinizing the circumstances surrounding the suspension of a top diplomats security clearance, our own BETSY WOODRUFF SWAN reports.

In the letter sent on July 21, the acting head of the State Departments Office of Inspector General, DIANA SHAW, told a group of Republican senators that her office is looking into the suspension of ROB MALLEYs security clearance, taking a step that could lead to a formal investigation.

Until late April, Malley helmed the Biden administrations efforts to restart a nuclear deal with Iran. But his security clearance was suspended on April 22, according to a person with knowledge of the move, for reasons that remain unknown. Despite losing his access to classified information, Malley kept doing limited work at State for more than two months. But when CNN reported that the clearance had been suspended, he went on unpaid leave.

PENTAGON SUSPENDS TRAINING WITH NIGER: The U.S. military has suspended its mission of training and advising Nigers armed forces, a DOD official told Lara today, although the two countries continue to cooperate on logistics and maintenance support to keep base operations functioning.

The 1,100 U.S. forces in the country are mostly restricted to Agadez, the drone base built by the U.S. military in 2019 for counterterrorism operations, for force protection, said the official, who was granted anonymity to discuss sensitive operations. However, there are some troops posted at outstations around the country and a few service members assigned to the embassy in the capital of Niamey as well.

Because weve suspended training for the most part, normally you would leave the base to go to a training area those types of activities arent occurring, the official said.

The Pentagon is continuing to monitor the situation and is in communication with the U.S. Embassy in Niger as well as the Nigerien armed forces, but the situation remains fluid, the official said. Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. MARK MILLEY spoke with his Nigerien counterpart, Armed Forces Chief of Defense Lt. Gen. ISSA ABDOU SIDIKOU, by phone on Sunday to discuss the safety of Americans and the developing situation in the country, according to Milleys spokesperson Col. DAVID BUTLER.

Washington has no plans to evacuate its citizens from Niger even as France and Italy move forward with plans to get their people out, National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY told reporters today.

We dont have any indications of direct threats to U.S. citizens or to our facilities, and so we have not changed our posture, he said, adding that the U.S. is monitoring the situation in Niger literally by the hour.

As Western countries watch the chaos unfolding in Niger, the military junta detained members of ousted President MOHAMED BAZOUMs political party and Cabinet, possibly to use them as hostages in case of military intervention, a senior member of Bazoums party told the Wall Street Journals BENOIT FAUCON and GABRIELE STEINHAUSER on Monday.

The detentions are a setback to the Economic Community of West African States, which has been attempting to broker a deal with the military junta to return Niger to civilian rule and reclaim legitimacy after lagging responses to recent coups in West Africa. ECOWAS has given Niger an ultimatum to return to democracy or risk military intervention from the regional bloc.

FOOL ME TWICE: Russian officials blamed Ukraine after a drone hit the same building in central Moscow for the second time in two days, our own NICOLAS CAMUT reports.

The drone electronically jammed and lost control before crashing into a complex of nonresidential buildings in Moscow city, the Russias defense ministry said in a statement. The skyscraper houses the ministries of digital development, economy and industrial development, the New York Times VICTORIA KIM reports.

Two other drones were destroyed by air defenses over the Odintsovo and Narofominsk districts in the Moscow region, the ministry added. No one was injured in the attacks.

The strike comes after the Times reported that at least three different Ukrainian-made drones have been used to attack inside Russia, though Ukrainian officials have declined to claim or deny responsibility.

NO VISA, NO PROBLEM: U.S. observers are assessing the border conditions for Palestinian-Americans traveling through Israel as part of an emerging visa waiver deal between Washington and Jerusalem, four officials told Reuters NIDAL AL-MUGHRABI and NUHA SHARAF.

The U.S. has tentatively agreed to allow Israelis to travel to the States without a visa, but in exchange, Washington demanded that all Americans, regardless of background, receive the same privilege in Israel. Such a measure would overhaul travel restrictions for tens of thousands of Palestinian-Americans in the West Bank.

In a six-week trial period that began in mid-July, Israel must demonstrate that its admitting citizens without differential treatment for admission to the U.S. visa waiver program.

Meanwhile, Hungarians werent so fortunate today, as Washington sharply limited their access to visa waivers over security concerns regarding new passports issued between 2011 and 2020, our own LILI BAYER reports.

ITS TUESDAY. Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at [emailprotected] and [emailprotected], and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33.

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TAKE IT AWAY, EUROPE: Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS said he would call on European partners to take the lead on supporting Ukraine and bringing the war to a sustainable conclusion if hes elected president.

Europeans need to do their fair share. I think the fact that we have drawn down our ammunition to crisis levels, some of our weapons stocks we have other contingencies we have to be worried about, DeSantis told Fox News Monday night. We need a sustainable peace in Europe without rewarding Putins aggression.

His remarks are similar to recent comments by 2024 GOP frontrunner DONALD TRUMP, albeit much more blunted. In late July, Trump said Europe needs to start matching Washingtons contribution and send another $100 billion in aid to Kyiv.

But competition with China would be DeSantis main priority, he said, allocating more resources to the Indo-Pacific region to counter Beijings influence. Hed also plan to focus on issues closer to home, such as the southern border crisis.

Meanwhile, the Pentagon announced today that its pulling 1,100 troops deployed to the southern border earlier this year from their mission on Aug. 8, the APs TARA COPP and REBECCA SANTANA report. Four hundred troops will remain there until Aug. 31, a defense official told the AP.

HACKING THE NATION: Around 8 million government IP addresses across all 50 states are ripe for adversaries to exploit, according to a report out today, our friends at Morning Cybersecurity (for Pros!) report.

Securins latest State of Cybersecurity study discovered 119,000 instances of high-risk services in their scan of government domains nationwide.

The findings come amid a steady barrage of ransomware attacks that have been costly to U.S. government organizations, with an estimated price tag of $70 billion in damages from 2018 to October 2022, according to a report last year from Comparitech.

SIGN ME UP: Our colleagues are launching a new daily tech podcast this Wednesday POLITICO Tech, a daily download on the disruption that new innovations are bringing to politics and policy.

From AI and the metaverse to disinformation and microchips, itll explore how such technology is shaping our world driving the policy decisions, global rivalries and industries that will matter tomorrow.

LAW OF WAR UPDATE: Rep. SARA JACOBS (D-Calif.) applauded the Pentagon for clarifying its Law of War manual to better protect civilians in conflict, a measure she pushed for months ago alongside Sen. DICK DURBIN (D-Ill.).

So glad that the Pentagon has heeded my calls with @SenatorDurbin to update the Law of War manual the rules of the road for our military engagements to ensure that were doing everything we can to avoid civilian harm, she tweeted today.

Both lawmakers sent a letter to DODs General Counsel CAROLINE KRASS in February, urging the department to address areas of concern in the Law of War. The update further explains which people are protected, and includes a section outlining precautions military personnel can take to assure a civilian isnt harmed.

MIXED EMOTIONS: President JOE BIDEN made the call to keep Space Command in Colorado, and lawmakers whod lobbied for it to be moved to Alabama arent so happy.

Its clear that far-left politics, not national security, was the driving force behind this decision, House Armed Services Chair MIKE ROGERS (R-Ala.) said in a statement. The administrations shameful delay to finalize the decision warranted the opening of a Congressional investigation, he argued, adding that this fight is far from over.

It was irresponsible for the president to yank a military decision out of the Air Forces hands in the name of partisan politics, Sen. KATIE BRITT (R-Ala.) piled on in a statement.

Theres been intense speculation in the Senate that TOMMY TUBERVILLEs (R-Ala.) battle against the Pentagons abortion travel policy would drag down Alabamas bid. Sen. JOHN HICKENLOOPER (D-Colo.), however, said Tubervilles holds on military promotions, while very frustrating, did not affect the decision-making process at all.

On a bad day, it bugs the living daylights out of me. But its completely separate from Space Command, Hickenlooper said. In my opinion, I believe thats how the Defense Department looked at it. And I think thats how the White House looked at it.

DONT SAY THAT: A federal lawsuit claims an Indian-American engineer working with a missile defense contractor in Alabama was fired after he was heard speaking Hindi in a video call, the Associated Press reports.

ANIL VARSHNEY, who has worked at Parsons Corporation for over a decade, filed the civil rights suit against the company and Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN, whose department oversees the United States Missile Defense Agency. AL.com first reported the news.

This case arises out of Defendants intentional acts to end Mr. Varshneys highly distinguished engineering career because he is a 78-year-old Indian American, according to the lawsuit. Defendants abruptly terminated Mr. Varshney after one of his white colleagues overheard him speaking Hindi to his dying brother-in-law in India and falsely reported him for a violation of security regulations.

Varshney took the Facetime call in an empty cubicle, the lawsuit reads, and the company fired him for using the application at the classified work location. He claims there was no such company policy against such use. Parsons has denied wrongdoing and asked for the lawsuit to be dismissed.

RETIREMENT FUNDS FACE CHINA PROBE: The House Select Committee on China is investigating Blackrock and MSCI for facilitating investments in Chinese companies with alleged ties to the Chinese military and Chinas human rights abuses, WSJs KATE OKEEFFE and CORRIE DRIEBUSCH report.

In a letter first obtained by the Journal, Chair MIKE GALLAGHER (R-Wisc.) and ranking member RAJA KRISHNAMOORTHI (D-Illi.) allege that in moving massive flows of American capital to entities flagged by the U.S. government, Blackrock and MSCI are exacerbating an already significant national-security threat and undermining American values. The committee said it was specifically looking at Americans retirement savings and how asset managers are investing them in Chinese firms.

Blackrock and MSCI are defending their investment practices. They also maintain they are engaging with the committees inquiry.

RICK WATERS, the State Departments former top China policy official, has joined Eurasia Group, Reuters MICHAEL MARTINA reports.

GIL CISNEROS, the Pentagons head of personnel and readiness, announced he is leaving his post in September. He is a Navy veteran and former member of Congress.

JOHN BOLTON, The Hill: Erratic, irrational and unconstrained: What a second Trump term would mean for Americas foreign policy

JAMIE DETTMER, POLITICO: Ukraines plan if Russia assassinates Zelenskyy

LIANA FIX and ZONGYUAN ZOE LIU, Foreign Affairs: Berlins delicate balance with Beijing

The Henry L. Stimson Center, 9 a.m.: Unraveling Chinas strategic re-engagement in Myanmar

The Hudson Institute, 11 a.m.: Securing American competitiveness: the importance of critical supply chains in strategic rivalry with China

The Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association, 11 a.m.: Utilizing data literacy in the military

Washington Post Live, 3 p.m.: Generative artificial intelligence and the future of technology

Thanks to our editor, Emma Anderson, who we wish we could overthrow and replace with Gregory.

We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who would rule this newsletter democratically, for once.

A message from Lockheed Martin:

Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.

Many of todays military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more.

Originally posted here:
No breakthrough yet in Ukraine's counteroffensive - POLITICO - POLITICO