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We really dont want a war between China and Taiwan. ... a war would destroy everything, added Lu. There would be many people dead, and we would also lose our home.

The question for voters is: which party, which platform, leads to peace now? And to that end, how important is Taiwanese sovereignty?

The fundamental split here politically between the two big parties is [based on their] ideas on sovereignty, national identity and relations with China, said Courtney Donovan Smith, a political analyst who focuses on Taiwan. Its not a traditional left-right split.

Another of the fundamental issues of the ongoing campaign is whether to give the incumbent DPP another term after eight years in power, or to give the opposition KMT another chance to govern.

The Taiwan Peoples Party (TPP) is also contesting the presidency as a third choice, arguing that the two other parties are polar extremes that need a dose of moderation. Polling conducted before a nationwide blackout on political surveys indicates the race is close all three parties have a theoretical pathway to victory in the presidential race.

But whichever party is the victor, in many senses, Taiwans future will also depend on the United States and just how committed it will remain to the defense of its ally.

Angelica Oung, a Taiwanese American clean energy advocate, used to confidently tell her friends that the United States would step in to defend Taiwan if violence was ever used to cross the Taiwan Strait.

It was a core American interest to do so, she reasoned.

But lately, shes been struggling with her confidence in this matter. American foreign policy in Eastern Europe is having an effect thousands and thousands of miles away.

I look at whats been happening to American support for Ukraine, and its been eroding rather rapidly, she said, in a Taipei cafe specializing in domestically grown coffee.

Congress recently rejected a Biden administration proposal to send more than $100 billion in aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. The legislation failed a procedural vote in the Senate, with Republicans pressing for unrelated border and immigration policy changes to be included.

The White House warned that aid to Ukraine would end, without the approval of additional money by Congress, at the end of 2023.

When a Taiwanese person comes to me [and] says, You see what they did to Ukraine? They encouraged them to stand up and fight Russia. And then when things dont go well, theyre abandoned. I find it very difficult to have a good comeback to that, Oung said.

President Joe Biden shakes hands with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the White House on Dec. 12, 2023. The White House warned that aid to Ukraine would end without the approval of additional money by Congress, at the end of 2023. | Evan Vucci/AP

Now she finds herself disappointed in the U.S. government, worrying that letting down Ukraine is a prelude to what may happen in Taiwan.

For much of her life she has straddled the two countries, traveling between Taiwan and the United States. Oung was living in Los Angeles when the Covid pandemic broke out, and decided to move to Taiwan where she felt the public health measures were taken more seriously. When she settled in, she was surprised about the political priorities of her fellow Taiwanese voters.

I just found it frankly perplexing that the Taiwanese werent seriously alarmed about the prospect of an invasion, because its very obvious from what [Chinese leader] Xi [Jinping] was saying, that he had the desire to reunify Taiwan and China by force, if necessary, she explained.

But over time, she found her perspective cooling. Its hard to maintain the same level of alarm for years at a time, she told me, and while she still sees national security as a top priority, she understands why people are not operating constantly at the highest levels of alertness.

For Huang Po Chang, a shop owner in Xingang, a small town in southwest Taiwan, the issues that determine his vote are the same pocketbook issues that trouble people all over the world.

The fundamental differences between the TPP and KMT political parties are their views on China. But Huang says hes much more concerned about rising housing prices, slowing economic growth, opportunities for young people and medical care not nearly as much about geopolitics.

Thats not the most important thing in my mind, because Ive been living in Taiwan for 40 years, and constantly notice China, but thats not what I pay attention to a lot in my daily life, he said.

He puts the chance of a violent conflict at about 1 in 10, citing the familial and economic connections between China and Taiwan as reasons why peace is the most likely long-term outcome.

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'If They Really Want to Take Taiwan Back, What Can We Do?' - POLITICO