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The United Statesneeds detente with China to deescalate the danger of an armed conflict over Taiwan, losing control of maritime routes through theSouth China Seaand other potential Pacific region hotspots.

China wont indefinitely accept a subordinate status to the West across leading-edge technologies. China already is out in front inbattery technology, for example, but it will always need the West.

Neither China, the U.S., the EU nor Japan have large enough domestic markets to support the scale in R&D or monopoly on engineering talent to accomplish across-the-board technological dominance. Consider the multinational character ofsemiconductorsupply chainsand recentU.S. breakthroughsin battery technology.

Chinas economy is too dependent on trade andits navy too formidableto beconfined within the First Island Chainrunning from Kuril Islands through Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines, Indonesia and Vietnam.

Taiwan carries strategic status as the manufacturer ofmore than 90% of the worlds most advanced computer chips. Capturing Taiwan would givethe Chinese Navy a base of operations to push the overstretched U.S. Navy into subordinate status in the Western Pacific. China then would control the vital maritime lanes from Asia to the U.S. West Coast.

Maintaining Taiwans de facto independence is essential to American interests. Deterring an invasion from China will require arming Taiwan withthe most sophisticated weaponsand not permittingBeijing to become more confident by allowing Russia to defeat Ukraine.

The losses Russian forces are taking in the Ukraine should give Chinas President Xi Jinping some pause, but the outcome is critical. Even if Russia manages to hold on to a piece of Ukraine in addition to Crimea, NATO has beenhardened andexpanded. Chinese provocations are causing asimilar shoringup ofU.S defense arrangementsin the Pacific.

Thelong-term prospects for the Russian economy are poor, with its exodus of talent, closure of traditional markets for its oil and gas, and limited access to Western technology. Western sanctions and Ukrainian valor have forced Russia intodependencyon China to sustain its economy and war effort.

But China needs good relations with Europe and a better image there. WithAmericans tightening controls on Chinas access to U.S. technologyandlobbying allies to do the same, Xi must cultivate Europe to assure continued access to western knowhow and broad foreign markets.

Yet significant majorities in Germany, France and most of Europe view China unfavorably. Consequently, Xi should see advantage in pressuring Russias President Vladimir Putin to deal. At the conclusion of his April meetings with Xi, French President Emmanuel Macron said,I know I can count on you to bring Russia back to reason and bring everybody to the negotiating table.His criticsnotwithstanding, Macron may be spot on.

Accessing Chinas leverage with Russia by bringing it into a five-sided process the United States, Europe, U.K., Russia and the Ukraine would permit Beijing to buff its global image by playing a constructive role in a high-stakes European security issue.

With the war in Ukraine resolved, the United States could then devote more resources to the Pacific and would be in a stronger position to negotiate with China to deescalate tensions.A deal would be terribly difficult neither side is about to give up Taiwan but both sides could accept naval parity and agree to curb their arms race.

PeterMoriciis an economist and emeritus business professor at the University of Maryland, and a national columnist.

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Giving China tools to bring peace to Ukraine can defuse the cold war over Taiwan - MarketWatch