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PT-91 Twardys in Ukraine.

A long column of ex-Polish PT-91 Twardy tanks, rolling along a training ground somewhere in Ukraine on or before Monday, is a healthy reminder of two important facts.

Despite substantial pledges to Ukraine of Western-made tanks, upgraded Soviet-style tanks still by far are the most numerous tanks in Ukraines arsenal. And its those tanks that are likely to lead the way if Kyivs forces finally shift from defense to offense in the coming weeks or months.

Still, the worst Soviet-style tank Ukraine is acquiring is better than the best Soviet-style tank Russia lately has been able to acquire in meaningful numbers.

Russia doesnt yet import tanks. It builds them new, locally, or restores them from local stocks of Cold War-vintage vehicles. Industrial bottlenecks have throttled Russias efforts to make good the 2,000 or so tanks its lost in the 14 months since it widened its war on Ukraine.

Increasingly, the Russian armys replacement tanks are unmodified T-62s and T-55s from the 1960s and 1950stanks that dont require the high-tech components that are in short supply in Russia.

By contrast, as Ukraine replaces the roughly 500 tanks its lost since February 2022, its getting many of the replacement tanks from foreign allies. Any local shortages of electronics, optics or ball bearings dont constrain the supply of fresh vehicles.

Which is why those eight PT-91s, parading across that field in Ukraine this week, are so encouraging for advocates of a free Ukraine. These are the tanks Kyiv could send into battle against Russias ancient T-62s and T-55s.

It would be a deeply unfair match. To produce a PT-91, Polish vehicle-maker Bumar-Labedy started with a 45-ton T-72M1a downgraded export variant of the 1983-vintage, Soviet T-72Aand replaced the engine, transmission, fire-controls, optics and autoloader and added bricks of Polish-made Erawa reactive armor.

The result is a tank that still looks a lot like a T-72. Same silhouette. Same 125-millimeter 2A46 main gun. Same three-person crew. But its got an 850-horsepower diesel engine in place of the old, 780-horsepower modelmaking it several miles per hour faster. The neatly-fitted reactive armor offers better protection against high-explosive rounds.

The new fire-controls are the PT-91s most important feature, however. The stabilizer on the T-72M1 is crude and requires frequent recalibration, limiting the tanks accuracy while firing on the move. The Twardy adds new, more robust, two-axis stabilization.

All that is to say, the PT-91 is a better tank than a 1980s-vintage T-72M1 isand a much better tank than a much older T-62 or T-55 is. As far as firepower and protection go, the Polish-made tank might fall just behind a German-made Leopard 2A4.

Poland back in the 1990s acquired around 230 PT-91s. Warsaw so far has pledged 60 of them to Kyiv. More could follow as Polands new American-made M-1s and South Korean K-2s begin arriving in large numbers.

Its unclear how many of the PT-91s so far have reached Ukraine. It is clear, from a total lack of photographic evidence of Twardys on the front lines, that Kyiv is holding back the ex-Polish tankseither saving them for newly-forming brigades, or waiting to send them to existing brigades as replacements for combat losses.

Either way, these fresh PT-91s soon should outnumber Ukraines battle-ready Western tanks, which include: 14 ex-British Challenger 2s; some portion of 40 Leopard 2A4s from Poland, Canada, Norway and Spain; and a few of the 31 newer Leopard 2A6s/Strv 122s coming from Germany, Portugal and Sweden.

Ukraine also is getting more than a hundred Leopard 1A5s from a German-led consortium as well as 31 American M-1A1s. But none of these tanks have shipped.

If Ukraine goes on the counteroffensive this spring or early summer, the PT-91s could be the most numerous of the Ukrainian armys replacement tanks.

Luckily for the Ukrainians, theyre pretty good tanks. Far better, at least, than Russias own replacement tanks.

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Ex-Polish PT-91 Tanks Have Arrived In Ukraine. They're Better Than ... - Forbes