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(CNN) -

Voters in North Carolina, Indiana and Ohio on Tuesday kick off five straight weeks of primary contests that could give us a clearer indication of whether establishment Republicans have the upper hand against the tea party movement for control of the party.

The results could back up recent tough talk from Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell, who predicted big wins for incumbents facing primary challenges from the right, saying, "I think we are going to crush them everywhere."

And they may have a major impact in determining whether Republicans have a chance to retake the majority in the Senate.

Since the birth of the tea party movement in 2009, primary challenges from the right have produced major headlines and headaches for the GOP and hurt the party's chances of winning back the Senate from Democrats in the past two election cycles. Candidates backed by the tea party movement and other grass-roots conservatives effectively cost the GOP five winnable Senate elections the last two cycles in Nevada, Delaware, Colorado, Indiana and Missouri.

Two months ago, McConnell, whom the right sees as part of the problem in Washington, told The New York Times that when it came to tea party challenges, "I don't think they are going to have a single nominee anywhere in the country."

His prediction might come true.

Establishment leaders say they have learned their lessons from the past two elections and are better at counterattacking this time around.

So why do incumbents and establishment-backed candidates appear to have the upper hand this time around?

"I don't think we can say that the tea party movement is dead, but there seems to be less enthusiasm among their activists and supporters this year," said Jennifer Duffy, senior editor for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, a top campaign handicapper. "Establishment Republicans and incumbents have learned to run against tea party-backed candidates."

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Test for GOP establishment-tea party battle