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hide captionIdaho Republican Mike Simpson appears on track to beat his Tea Party challenger, Bryan Smith, in Tuesday's primary.

Idaho Republican Mike Simpson appears on track to beat his Tea Party challenger, Bryan Smith, in Tuesday's primary.

Mike Simpson has been atop the Tea Party hit list for much of this election year.

And Tuesday's primary contest between the Idaho Republican congressman and Tea Party challenger Bryan Smith had been billed as a big one in a string of GOP primary mashups that would signal the sway of the Tea Party faction or the ability of traditional conservatives like Simpson to fight back in a deep red state.

"It's been a real-deal campaign here in Idaho," says Skip Smyser, the conservative founder of Boise-based government relations firm Lobby Idaho.

In the campaign's waning days, however, internal polls suggest that Simpson, who according to most recent finance reports has raised $1.9 million to Smith's $781,425, appears on track to beat back his Tea Party challenger after a campaign swamped with outside money.

While Simpson has a solid 80-plus rating from the American Conservative Union, he ran afoul of the Tea Party by voting for the 2008 Wall Street bailout. It doesn't help that he's a close ally of a face of the GOP establishment, House Speaker John Boehner.

In his deep-red eastern Idaho district, the only real danger for Simpson is in the primary. And there he has shown some weakness: In 2010, he won 58 percent in the GOP primary, a relatively low percentage for an incumbent. (In 2012, Simpson bounced back by winning 70 percent against a Tea Party challenger.)

All of that made him an early target of the D.C.-based Club for Growth, a small-government and free-market-oriented group which moved aggressively to help bankroll Smith, a lawyer and debt collector.

Outside Money, Divided Party

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High On Tea Party Hit List, Idaho Congressman Looks To Hold On