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Is the tea party still alive and well in Texas? The states primary runoff election is May 27. File photo of a 2011 tea party rally in Austin by Ben Sklar/Getty Images

Today in the Morning Line:

Let the elections begin! The midterm election primary season kicks off in earnest Tuesday with elections in North Carolina, Ohio and Indiana. Get this: There are 13 states with primaries in May. Its always nice when instead of just talking about races, you get results. The overarching question for May: does the tea party still have the juice? In races this month in places like Kentucky and Georgia, establishment candidates appear poised to beat conservative challenges. But in North Carolina, Texas and Idaho, the tea party is once again threatening. The GOP appears to have learned the lessons of 2010, when many Republicans argue tea party challengers cost them control of the Senate. To that point, Democrats concede Republican establishment candidates will probably prevail in many of Mays races, but only because, they say, the GOP has co-opted the tea party. Its clear the tea party and the extreme right wing have overtaken the GOP establishment, Justin Barasky, press secretary for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, told Morning Line. Thats why so many establishment candidates will be nominees even though theyre no different than Ken Buck, Sharron Angle, etc. Colorados Buck and Nevadas Angle are two of the candidates blamed for GOPs 2010 inability to make bigger gains in the Senate.

The long road to November: Democrats also believe (maybe hope?) candidates like Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell in Kentucky, North Carolina state House Speaker Thom Tillis and whoever gets through the Georgia primary will be bruised, having had to use resources to beat back primary opponents. But Republicans would argue, its still six months out from the general election and those candidates will have plenty of time to replenish resources and mend fences with the base. One race to watch down the road that could be a game-changer is Mississippi. Public and private polls show incumbent Sen. Thad Cochran up by a lot against state Sen. Chris McDaniel, a tea party challenger, but establishment Republicans are taking nothing for granted. They are doing everything they can to beat him, because they worry his past remarks would not only put Mississippi on the table for Democrats, but also become potentially damaging for other Republicans across the country, who would need to answer if they support McDaniel.

Heres the May primary calendar followed by a look at the state of play of establishment vs. tea party in some key states and some of the other key races to watch:

May 6: Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio May 13: Nebraska, West Virginia May 20: Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, North Dakota, Oregon, Pennsylvania May 27: Texas runoff

North Carolina: The big story to watch Tuesday is whether Tillis surpasses the 40 percent threshold to move onto the general election or if he gets dragged into a runoff by Greg Bannon, a doctor and tea party challenger backed by Rand Paul, or Mark Harris, an evangelical pastor. Polls have shown Tillis close to or surpassing the mark. Republicans think momentum is on Tillis side. They sure hope so, anyway, because a runoff would mean Tillis having to spend another two months not focusing on vulnerable Democrat Kay Hagan. A runoff would take place July 15. How much do Democrats want Tillis to get stuck in a runoff? Listen to this ad that implies Tillis thinks the health care law is a great idea and its paid for by Hagan. And in the House, 10-term Rep. Walter Jones is facing a serious challenge from Taylor Griffin, a former Bush aide and GOP consultant. Jones took a hard turn against the Iraq war, has voted against Republican budgets and aligned with some Ron Paul groups. None of it won the praise of the GOP-led House leadership. Also, can former American Idol star Clay Aiken make it through a Democratic primary in a potentially competitive seat.

Nebraska: Tea Party groups, Sens. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, and Mike Lee, R-Utah, and Sarah Palin have all thrown their support behind Ben Sasse, president of Midland University. The state establishment candidate is state Treasurer Shane Osborn. They are locked in a tight race, the results of which will likely determine the next U.S. senator from the Cornhusker State.

Georgia: Polls have shown former Dollar General and Reebok CEO David Perdue, Rep. Jack Kingston and former Georgia Secretary of State Karen Handel ahead. Republicans would prefer any of those three to Reps. Phil Gingrey and Paul Broun, who are seen as less disciplined and weaker against Democrat Michelle Nunn, daughter of former Sen. Sam Nunn.

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Does the tea party still have the juice?