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Laura Barron-Lopez: President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy are locked in a high-stakes standoff over raising the nation's debt with weeks to go before the federal government is unable to pay its bills. The two men have challenged each other for months as the deadline draws near with the president calling for a clean increase to the debt limit and a separate GOP budget plan, while Speaker McCarthy has called on President Biden to negotiate now over spending cuts.

And on Wednesday, McCarthy notched a symbolic win when his debt ceiling and spending cuts bill passed in the House, albeit along party lines and by two votes. A buoyant McCarthy spoke to reporters after the vote.

Kevin McCarthy: We lifted the debt limit. The Democrats need to do their job. The president can no longer ignore by not negotiating.

Laura Barron-Lopez: Republicans hope the bill's passing will increase pressure on the president to meet with the speaker, but Senate Democrats made clear that Speaker McCarthy's bill is, quote, dead on arrival in the upper chamber. And when asked by reporters if he would negotiate with McCarthy over the debt limit, President Biden did not budge.

Joe Biden: I'm happy to meet with McCarthy but not on whether or not the debt limit gets extended. That is not negotiable.

Laura Barron-Lopez: Joining us to discuss this and more, Dan Balz, the chief correspondent at The Washington Post, John Bresnahan, a co-founder of Punchbowl News, Mario Parker, the White House and Politics Editor for Bloomberg News, and Melanie Zanona, Capitol Hill Reporter for CNN. Thank you for being here.

I think it is important first to establish first the stakes for this conversation. If the country defaults on its debt, here is what would happen, we would quickly lose about one million jobs, there's a possibility of a recession, the credit rating for the country tanks, which would be followed by increasing interest rates, likely cuts to Medicare and social security benefits and military paychecks delayed. That's not everything that would happen. That's a number of the possible catastrophic things that would.

John, Republicans made clear with this bill that they are not going to agree to a clean debt limit increase. They want spending cuts. But this bill does not specify the spending cuts that they really want. Is this a serious proposal to balance the budget?

John Bresnahan, Co-Founder, Punchbowl News: It is and it isn't. It is both at the same time because they are calling for pretty dramatic spending cuts. They want to bring back, they want to return spending to the F.Y. 2022 level, two years ago, it's $130 billion less than we're spending now, than the government is spending now. So, it is a pretty dramatic cut.

And they don't want to cut the Pentagon, and they don't want to cut veteran spending, they say. So, they are going to cut everything else that is called non-defense discretionary. This is the interior department, the commerce department, the labor department. They're going make pretty -- to get to where they want, they are going to have to have huge cuts to those agencies. It's never going to happen.

This is what they are calling for. This is what their opening position is in this debate, and they want to force Biden to kind of talk on their ground where they are talking about spending cuts, caps, cuts. They don't want to talk about spending more money or raising taxes. They want to talk about cutting spending in as dramatic a way as they can.

Laura Barron-Lopez: And if they actually even achieve it, there are economists who say that those cuts themselves could potentially send the country into a recession.

But, Mario, I want to ask you about the White House, because right now, they aren't changing their tune. The president is not changing his tune. So, what are you hearing about how they are going to respond to this GOP bill?

Mario Parker, White House and Politics Editor, Bloomberg News: Yes. Well, the pressure is starting to build on the White House, right? They thought that they had the upper hand, particularly through the lens of what we saw in January, the number of votes that it needed, the number of times they had to vote in order for Speaker McCarthy to get the gavel.

Well, the gambit is starting to backfire slightly on the White House. You are seeing the U.S. Chamber of Commerce come out and urged Biden to meet with McCarthy. You are seeing a little bit of lackluster responses from folks like Josh Gottheimer. You are seeing the business roundtable apply pressure also.

And don't forget, President Biden's talking point prior to the passage of the bill in the House had been, well, show me something, they don't have anything. Well, now, they do. And so now, the onus is on the president to at least start to be open to speaking with McCarthy, lest he get viewed as the one who is being an extremist in this situation.

Laura Barron-Lopez: Melanie, say that the top congressional leaders, McCarthy included, reach a deal with President Biden, it's going to be nothing like what was just passed, to John's point. So, can Kevin McCarthy get all of his Republicans to support a deal with Democrats?

Melanie Zanona, Capitol Hill Reporter, CNN: That is the big question, and he's going to have to get those Republicans on board. He might not need their votes if he cuts a Democratic deal, because you can pass something if you have Democratic votes in the House, but he needs them for his speakership. Because they have made clear, the right flank, that they do not want anything watered down in their opinions of what they already past. They have this tool known as the motion vacate, which the ability to essentially force a vote to oust the sitting speaker, they are threatening to use that if they don't get what they want. So, that is hanging over McCarthy's head.

And that is why it's going to be challenge to -- I can't even imagine what this deal would like, to be honest, that something that all the Democrats can support and all the Republicans can support and that they could actually pass. So, they are starting to think about what that would look like, like what can Kevin McCarthy get, because, right now, it's hard enough to get even this conservative wish list past through the House.

Laura Barron-Lopez: I mean, do we even known -- based on what you know about McCarthy's leadership style, do you think he is interested in a deal with Democrats, one that could bring conservatives along?

Melanie Zanona: Yes, I actually do. I think he absolutely wants to get this done. He does not want to default on his hands, either. He recognizes the stakes as well. And even though they're starting to feel confident that wouldn't get the blame, no one really knows how it is going to shake out. I do think they want a solution, but he's very cognizant of these different competing dynamics that he has to deal with.

Laura Barron-Lopez: And, Dan, you have said you think that passage of this GOP bill could actually escalate the possibility that we hit the brink, that we could potentially get closer to the fiscal cliff. Why do you think that is?

Dan Balz, Chief Correspondent, The Washington Post: Well, I think the two sides are still so far apart and they are both done in on their respective positions. And I think that we are going to get closer and closer to the brink before there is some movement toward a negotiation. I think, inevitably, President Biden will get drawn into this. I don't quite know when and how it will happen. I have no idea what the deal would be that would put it together.

We have to remember, in 2011, we went through a similar process with a president who was starting his re-election campaign, Barack Obama. And in that case, the vice president, Joe Biden, did a lot of negotiating on both raising the debt ceiling and cutting spending. He was there at the beginning of those negotiations and when they blew up and they had to cut a very messy deal in the end, he was there to help bring that together. So, he has been through this.

And there is something at stake for him in this that I think relates to his 2024 re-election campaign, which is this is an early moment of definition for him and the Republican Party. And if he plays this smartly and well, he comes out perhaps stronger. But if this thing blows up and the economy tanks, that is going to hurt him as well as the Republicans. So, I think it behooves him to think about whether there is a way to get into negotiations that can produce a deal, but this is a more challenging Republican Party to negotiate with than even that tea party of 2011, as John well knows.

Laura Barron-Lopez: So, you think that there is risk, though, for both Republicans as well as President Biden?

Dan Balz: Absolutely, yes.

Laura Barron-Lopez: Bres, you -- Punchbowl talked to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer about what passed through the House by Kevin McCarthy. And he thinks that this bill could potentially be heading the country towards a default as well. So, is he standing by President Biden? Is he standing by the position that the White House holds that you don't negotiate with Republicans on this?

John Bresnahan: Oh, absolutely. I think the Hill Democrats are even harsher on this than the White House is. I mean, I have talked to folks in the west wing, and they are like maybe we can get to the table if McCarthy passes this bill when they were trying to put it together, and now, they were talking about -- you know, they are under pressure from Jeffries and Schumer, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Schumer, not at this moment to negotiate.

I do think it is fascinating, though, Democrats -- and we were talking about -- Mel and I were talking about this before. In the last day, I have gotten two Senate Democrats to call me and be like, what does McCarthy really want, like they are not talking to each other. They are really -- I mean, we're four months into this Congress and they are still kind of just --

Laura Barron-Lopez: The Senate Democrats aren't talking to McCarthy?

John Bresnahan: And McCarthy is not talking to them. I mean, they're not talking to each other. And it's amazing to me that there is so little discussion and we could be hitting this default day, the X date, they call it, in a couple weeks. It could be June, it could be July. We don't actually know yet. But it is fascinating that they don't have a read on him at all, really, what does he have to have to make a deal. And I think that is a huge problem.

And then beyond that, they have no idea what is happening in the House Republican conference. They really don't. A lot of these members are new. They have not dealt with him before. Biden does not know them, The White House doesn't them. Schumer does not know them. So, I mean, it's a real -- I mean, we could blunder our way into a worse situation than 2011 very easily. I mean, they could just keep talking past each other and we could find ourselves on the verge of a default.

Laura Barron-Lopez: But as Mario said, the White House is facing some more pressure potentially from this bill to come to the table. I mean, do you -- are you hearing any additional pressure coming from Democrats now towards the White House to negotiate?

John Bresnahan: I mean, there are some moderate Democrats interested.

Melanie Zanona: Just like rank and file Democrats.

John Bresnahan: Yes, you're talking about Gottheimer. Joe Manchin has been very vocal about this. I do think they will -- you know, the House is out for a week. I think they will go back home. I think they'll start to hear more from folks on Main Street.

This is starting to percolate a little bit into Main Street. It had not really yet. I think Wall Street has started to really pay attention to this. I mean, you are seeing insurance on a possible default going up, the cost of that going up. So, I think people are starting to pay attention to it because, really, they -- I mean, we are four months into this Congress and there has been very little movement until this week, until this vote. So, finally, there is something, but both sides are still kind of just staring at each other.

Mario Parker: And to John's point, yes, this is starting to emanate outside of Washington, right? We were all kind of watching the politics of it. But when you start talking about things like delayed social security payments, Medicaid, Medicare beneficiaries, higher interest rates just on your mortgage or your car loans, those are the type of things that get constituents calling their representatives, and you don't want those calls if you are a representative.

Dan Balz: And the economy is in a fragile spot, right? And it is not as though this is a robust economy that could take a bit of a shock. There's so much nervousness that what we saw with the banking industry. Jobs market looks strong still, but in all other ways, if we got the kind of jolt that we are talking about or even come close, it's going to set off some real concerns.

Laura Barron-Lopez: And do you think that -- you mentioned 2011 and us reaching the fiscal cliff there. Do you think this is a 2011-level scenario?

Dan Balz: I think it could be worse in part what you have been talking about, which is there is no communication, there is no understanding. I mean, the only thing I can think of, and you all might have a better sense of this than I do, is that the relationship between the president and Mitch McConnell may be a back-doorway into something. But I think we are a ways away from that. I think there's a lot of brinkmanship yet to happen.

Laura Barron-Lopez: And, Melanie, you mentioned the possibility of Democrats providing votes in the House to get past this. Do you have any sense of if Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is actually going to want to do this, to give votes?

Melanie Zanona: As of today, they are holding their position that there are going to be no negotiations and just a clean debt ceiling hike. But I think the closer we get to that X date, and we should be getting more information next week about what that X date, I think the closer we get to that, we might start to see some movement there.

Laura Barron-Lopez: And I just want to ask again, I mean, the stakes of this, John, is there any sense that lawmakers really are feeling it, are feeling how close we could come to the brink?

John Bresnahan: I know Mel and I talk to these guys all the time. There's a large part of the House Republican conference that does not believe a default is a real crisis, that we can pay our interest on the debt, we can make enough payments to keep -- the default is not real, that's a phony funny thing, and I think this is extraordinarily dangerous.

And like you said, 2011, in 2011, John Boehner was the speaker, and he at least had a relationship with Biden. He knew not so much President Obama at that point, but he knew Biden and there was McConnell and the debt was a lot smaller than what we are talking about. But I can remember sitting outside in office in 2011 and Boehner came out and he had been talking to the tea party guys, and he is like, I can't talk to these guys. He's telling the reporters this.

I think it is worse now. I mean, McCarthy barely survived by the skin of his teeth, and at that point, Boehner was still viable. I mean, McCarthy barely got there. So, I do think he wants to govern appropriately, but I do -- can he survive this? I'm not entirely sure.

Laura Barron-Lopez: Can his speakership survive this, right, yes.

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