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Ed. note: This is Payload Research analysis, authored by Mo Islam, Payloads cofounder and Jack Kuhr, Payloads Research Director. This is an educated best guess, not based on access to any SpaceX internal data or proprietary info!

Last week, we detailed SpaceXs 2023 revenue, estimating sales reached $8.7B. This week, were once again dusting off the crystal ball and predicting SpaceXs 2024 revenue.

Please note: We calculated subscription revenue monthly; it isnt a simple total subscriber x cost per month calc. Hardware sales outpace customer additions as some applications need multiple terminals installed.

Payload projects that SpaceXs revenue will increase from $8.7B in 2023 to $13.3B in 2024, driven by a return to growth for customer Falcon 9 launches and Starlinks user base growing from 2.3M customers to 3.8M.

Payload forecasts that SpaceX will reach 140 Falcon launches in 2024, just short of the companys 148 launch target (per VP of Launch Jon Edwards).

Predicting Starlink customer growth is challenging, given the service is still in its early days and growing rapidly. Heres how we think about it:

SpaceX reported ending 2023 with 2.3M Starlink users (up from 1M at the end of 2022). The US customer base grew by ~90% last year, while international users grew by ~200%.

2024 Starlink user base: We estimate Starlink will finish this year with 3.8M users, adding 1.5M customers throughout 2024.

Payload estimates SpaceX revenue will jump to $13.3B in 2024.

Launch revenue is set to surge in 2024 with a jam-packed schedule. The company launched its Falcon family rocket 31 times in 2021, 61 times in 2022, 96 times in 2023, and is targeting 148 launches this year (though Payload assumes 140 for now). This will also be a pivotal year for Starlink as it will shed light on a sustainable growth rate and the overall market size.

SpaceX projections: Payloads $13.3B revenue estimate is less than the $15B that SpaceX is reportedly projecting. The variance between Payloads expectations and SpaceXs projections can be attributed to our models more conservative outlook on Starlink growth. Furthermore, SpaceXs revenue target has historically been more of a stretch goal.

Well continue to monitor this and update our internal model. Stay tuned for a year-end revision based on new data that we gather over the course of 2024. And as always, please dont hesitate to reach out with any questions or comments.

See the original post here:

Predicting SpaceX's 2024 Revenue - Payload - Payload

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