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Latin America is going bad; it is going very bad. These laconic words of Nobel Laureate Mario Vargas Llosa, one of Latin Americas most revered and respected intellectuals, came at the closing of a program on the relations between the United States and Ibero-America organized and hosted by Fundacin Internacional para la Libertad(FIL), the foundation he created to work for freedom in Spain and the Americas. I have known and collaborated with Vargas Llosa for almost three decades, and I do not recall hearing him so pessimistic - albeit realistic - in the diagnosis for a continent that he truly loves.

Nobel Laureate Mario Vargas Llosa speaking at the forum on the relations and perspectives of US ... [+] Ibero-American relations. December 10, 2021, Coral Gables. To his left, Alvaro Vargas Llosa

The event in question took place last December 10th, in Coral Gables, Florida. Two former presidents, Lenin Moreno of Ecuador and Ernesto Zedillo of Mexico, spoke and attended the event in person. Francisco Santos, former vice president of Colombia, was also there. Other major Latin American figures who participated virtually included Marta Luca Ramirez, vice president of Colombia; Mara Corina Machado, the lady Liberty of Venezuela; and Laura Chinchilla, former president of Costa Rica.

The event started with speakers from Brazil, which represents half of the economy and population of South America. The two speakers came from different lines of the Brazilian political scene: former judge and Minister of Justice Sergio Moro and Congressman Luiz Philippe of Orlens-Bragana. Both had a chance to grow in political notoriety with the popular movement that brought Jair Bolsonaro to the presidency.

Sergio Moro, who achieved fame through his courageous prosecution of corrupt politicians and businessmen and later became Minister of Justice of during the first two years of the Bolsonaro government, has joined a party with a new name that exudes virtue signaling: Podemos. Podemos means the same in Spanish and Portuguese: we can or yes we can. It is the slogan used by the populist left-wing party of Spain. For an audience with several libertarians and anti-socialists present, Moro was quick to clarify that his Podemos label follows Obamas yes we can slogan, not the Spanish socialists. This did not calm all the fears of those present that his candidacy will play to the advantage of former President Lula, convicted by independent judges and, as Mario Vargas Llosa remarked, jailed for being a proven thief.

Sergio Moro, former Minister of Justice, and current running for President in the Brazilian ... [+] "Podemos" political party, was the first speaker at the Fundacin Internacional para la Libertad program, December 10, 2021

Lula was released from prison and today he is seen as the likely winner of a hypothetical election against President Jair Bolsonaro. The latter, who was swept into office thanks to his promise to fight corruption and the establishment that supported it, has lost major support by appearing to yield to the power of entrenched bureaucracies both in congress and the judiciary. Many of the corrupt have been released and reforms have stalled, and thus many who in the past supported Bolsonaro have embarked on the effort of neither Bolsonaro or Lula. I have had opportunities to spend time with several key players in this camp, among them retired General Santos de Cruz, Deltan Dallagnol, Helio Beltro, and Kim Kataguiri. Since, due to the multiplicity of candidates, Brazilian elections usually go to a run-off, Podemos supporters hope is that a potential second round will be between Lula and Moro or - the best possible alternative - Bolsonaro and Moro. But many consider this wishful thinking.

An indication of this came in Vargas Llosas summary of his expectations for Latin America. Despite his respect and preference for Sergio Moro, when Vargas Llosa spoke about Brazil, he presented the probable second-round election as being between Bolsonaro, whom he considers a clown, and Lula, whom he considers a dangerous thief. Most of those attending the event have a deep admiration for the talents of Bolsonaros Minister of Economics, Chicago Boy Paulo Guedes. But some see his performance being weakened by Bolsonaros presidency and the powers which he was not able to rein in.

The other major economy of Latin America, Mexico, also had a prominent role in the program. Mexico is still the United States leading trading partner, and with the growing population of Mexican origin in the United States, it is becoming ever more relevant in the cultural sphere as well. Former President Zedillo was not optimistic about Latin America. As an example, he mentioned that the World Health Organization appointed him to the commission to study the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and how to come out of it. He said that of the ten worst countries in dealing with the issue, six are the largest Latin American economies. I have only been able to read the report of WHOs executive board, so I have yet to study the components of their analysis. Among countries with the highest rate of deaths per capita we see Peru, Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, and Mexico.

Most Mexican policy leaders I know were, and are, vehemently opposed to Trump. This includes Zedillo. He lamented, however, that he has not seen any notable change in direction with Bidens presidency. Zedillo recommended that policy players in the Americas focus on efforts to improve the rule of law and economic liberties in the region. But he stressed that rule-of-law efforts should bear in mind the stark inequalities existing in Latin America, where being born in one household or another can predict so many outcomes regarding human flourishing. Mario Vargas Llosa has praised Zedillo and regards him as a hero. But sadly, he concluded, many of the past victories achieved for true democracy in Mexico have been lost.

Another Mexican speaker, who joined virtually, was former foreign minister Jorge Castaeda. He complained that Bidens proposed plan to provide subsidies to U.S. manufacturers to produce electric cars would have a devastating effect on the Mexican car market. Brazil also has a large car manufacturing sector, but it is less integrated with the United States.

Peru, which currently has a populist left-wing president, Pedro Castillo, has the worst record in dealing with the pandemic (approximately ten times the world average of deaths per capita) and is on the verge of falling into a socialism which might bring back the violence that Peru suffered in the 1980s. Many regarded the election that brought Castillo to power as fraught with fraud. Castillo now faces serious accusations of corruption, and his future, like that of the country, is in doubt. As Peru is Mario Vargas Llosas native country, it is understandable that he is greatly concerned.

In the final round of the election that brought Pedro Castillo to power, and in a decision that brought criticism from the left (who wanted the French Academy to rescind Vargas Llosas recent nomination to the Academie Franaise) the Nobel laureate endorsed Keiko Fujimori, the daughter of his favorite villain, former president Alberto Fujimori (still alive but in prison due to corruption and human rights abuses). In the final election, and with a contested result, Castillo edged Fujimori in the final vote (by less than half of a percentage point).

Colombia, one of the U.S.s closest trade and security partners in the region, is also under threat. A new study released by the Heritage Foundation describes how Colombia confronts an asymmetric warfare by illicit armed non-state actors and urban terrorist affiliated with Venezuela, Cuba and Iran. The authors of the study, who included Celina Realuyo of the National Defense University and Joseph Humire of the Center for a Secure Free Society, call on the Biden administration to strengthen security assistance and encourage more trade and investments. A turn to the left in Colombia is a real possibility, and it will have dire consequences in the entire hemisphere.

Although I have followed Ecuador closely and have collaborated with several people in the current administration of President Guillermo Lasso, the event in Coral Gables was my first time with former President Lenin Moreno. Despite his first name and the presumption that he was going to pave the way for the continuity of a leftist government, he broke ranks and chose an independent road. I never would have thought that I would hear Moreno quote Isaiah Berlin (1909-1997), the brilliant philosopher and historian of thought and defender of liberalism, about how socialism tries to destroy individuality. Moreno also made a detailed list of the false promises of socialism, old and new.

In Bolivia, the civil society of several of its regions, especially Santa Cruz de la Sierra - a province larger than Germany - are in open defiance of the road to socialism down which the national government wants to lead the nation. I have no time to mention the countries of all who spoke at FILs Coral Gables event, but the entire program (over four hours) can be seen on YouTube (in Spanish). If you follow the Americas, and do not want to be fooled by imaginary constructs or biased analyses, I recommend you watch it.

According to Vargas Llosa and many experts, only tiny Uruguay which makes up approximately 1% of Latin Americas GDP and, for the time being, Ecuador seem safe from imminent danger. Uruguay currently ranks as the best country in Latin America in rule of law and second in economic freedom. Ecuador ranks much lower, but its president and several on his team have solid credentials favorable to a free economy. Most of the rest of Latin America, however, might fall.

I have left Chile for last - the country that, in the Americas, has consistently ranked first in measurements of economic freedom and rule of law combined. I label that the freedom with justice index. Despite Chilean achievements, a combination of well-orchestrated attacks by those who favor socialism, together with the failures of current President Sebastin Pieras administration, have brought Chile to the brink of returning to the dark days of Salvador Allendes socialism. In their first round of the elections, disappointed with the establishment, the electorate gave their votes to candidates that were the farthest apart. One, Jos Antonio Kast, is like a more outspoken Mike Pence of Chile, with similar economic and social views. The other finalist for the presidential election, Gabriel Boric, a young Chilean of Croatian descent, is like an old communist ideologue, but with a narrative and image closer to that of Obama and the AOC branch of the Democratic party in the U.S.

The final election was yesterday. The loss by Jose Antonio Kast, gives even greater disillusionment to those who work for a free society. How things will develop is hard to say. Friends of a free society, those who favor social order based on private property, personal and national security, and proven values, with institutions that protect individuals from the government, have considerable work to do.

Chile's President elect Gabriel Boric, of the "I approve Dignity" coalition, celebrates his victory ... [+] in the presidential run-off election,in Santiago, Chile, Sunday, Dec. 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matias Delacroix)

The leaders of western democracies have not figured out how to deal with autocrats and regimes who, after an electoral victory, manage to take control of important institutions, persecute or jail opponents, and perpetuate themselves in power. Venezuela and Nicaragua are cases in point. Other countries are in line. As Jos Francisco Lagos, leader of Chilean think tank Instituto Res Publica, told me some days ago, today, winning elections is not enough. Enemies of the free economy are well prepared to wage war and destabilize any meaningful opponent. Can the anti-socialists join forces and stop socialist tactics in the Americas?

Will Latin Americans be able to reverse what seems to be a fall into even more socialism, corruption and misery? Many are pessimistic, but some have hope that an important awakening and a more energetic and strategic mobilization by anti-socialist actors in civil society can prevent the worst.

Read more here:
Latin America Toward The Abyss: Chilean Socialist Victory Reinforces Negative Trend - Forbes