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National Republicans are vowing to go all in to defeat what they see as a weakened opponent either way, forcing Democrats to spend heavily defending turf theyve never worried about heading into a general election. And the headwinds could be in the GOPs favor, with national polling pointing to a GOP takeover of the House and the party making stunning inroads with Latino voters in recent years under former President Donald Trump.

For sure its going to be competitive if shes the nominee, Rep. Filemn Vela (D-Texas) said of Cisneros. And then, frankly, I mean, because of the investigation it will be competitive for him too.

Vela who has endorsed Cuellar and is retiring after five terms representing another Rio Grande Valley district offered a stern warning for Democrats: The national party systems have ignored South Texas since the last election. And I think were in grave danger of losing at least two out of three South Texas seats.

Democrats insist they still hold the advantage in the Cuellar seat, which actually got slightly bluer in redistricting: President Joe Biden would have won it by 7 points. But some in the party are also painfully aware of their partys struggles with Latino voters in the last two elections particularly when the GOP makes central campaign topics out of immigration and border security. Hillary Clinton carried the old version of the district by nearly 30 points in 2016, but four years later, Biden won there by a mere 4.4 points.

We are going to flip this district. Its winnable, said Cassy Garcia, the GOP candidate who finished first in Tuesdays primary. A former staffer for Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), Garcia will face her own runoff against Sandra Whitten, the GOPs nominee against Cuellar in 2020.

If Garcia wins, shes said she will make border security one of her top issues. In an interview, Garcia touted her endorsement from the border patrol union, the National Border Patrol Council which endorsed her over Cuellar this year.

She said she would be happy to face either Democrat in November, criticizing Cuellars loyalty to Speaker Nancy Pelosiand bashing Cisneros as an open borders advocate tied to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez(D-N.Y.).

Shes endorsed by AOC, who wants to abolish DHS and support open borders, Garcia said, referring the Department of Homeland Security. Shes anti-oil and gas. Energy equals jobs in our district.

Buoyed by their gains in 2020, Republicans see more Latino districts as possible flips in 2022, especially in Texas. Their party, with Trumps help, continues to hammer Biden and Democrats on the border, which they see as the path to victory here.

By late Wednesday, Cuellar led Cisneros by 807 votes in a close Democratic primary vote count, 48.5 percent to 46.8 percent, with Cisneros excelling in the northern counties near San Antonio and Cuellar running up margins further south around Laredo. Neither cleared the 50 percent threshold to avoid the runoff, which is set for May 24.

Both Cuellar and Cisneros would bring their own unique liabilities into a general election in Texas 28th District, which includes Cuellars home base in Laredo and stretches up north toward San Antonio.

For Cuellar, there has been no clarity on the mysterious FBI raid of his home in January, though he has said he has committed no wrongdoing. Its a significant burden for a 17-year congressman, one of the most conservative in the caucus, who hasnt stared down a serious general election challenge against a Republican since 2002.

Cisneros, who has been embraced by national progressives, has previously taken potentially damaging positions on border and immigration issues, such as her 2019 proposal to split ICE in half as she pushed for more focus on drug and human trafficking.

She has also staked out a pro-abortion rights stance in a heavily Catholic district, which Democrats in the district have warned could be weaponized by Republicans going into November.

If in fact, she were to take it just looking again to possibility she does have a challenge. We are a conservative community. I suspect that the right to choose will become a huge, huge issue, said Sylvia Bruni, chair of the Webb County Democratic Party, which does not endorse in primary races.

She pointed to the heavily distorted ads that pro-Trump coalitions ran in the 2020 election.

If you vote for Biden, theyre killing babies at 9 months, Bruni said, summing up the attacks. And on the Democrats climate change push, she said Republicans generalized the partys positions as: Youre going to be homeless, you wont have food on the table.

Cisneros strongly pushed back on the notion that she couldnt beat a Republican in the general election, arguing that her partys flagging performance in South Texas was less about voters abandoning Democratic ideas and more about the party becoming too complacent with its base: For a very long time, we were taken for granted, she said.

Cuellar, and whatever investigation sparked the raid on his home and office, are the real danger to the party, Cisneros added.

Hes not able to fundraise. Hes under this cloud of mystery, Cisneros said in an interview outside her campaign headquarters just before primary day. What is going on? Hes a sitting member of Congress, like why is this happening?

Speaking to POLITICO by phone last month, Cuellar said Cisneros would struggle to defeat a Republican in a general election, blasting what he called more socialist type of views.

Ive heard some people say they probably wont support her as a Democrat, Cuellar said.

Republicans also plan to contest a neighboring Rio Grande Valley seat that Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez vacated to run in the new version of Velas district. That seat is now the most competitive in the state, and Republicans have nominated Latina businesswoman Monica De La Cruz. On the Democratic side, attorney and Army veteran Ruben Ramirez and business owner Michelle Vallejo will compete in a runoff.

Velas district, meanwhile, morphed into one that Biden would have carried by 16 points.

National Republicans were most excited about Garcias candidacy out of the crowded field vying to take on Cuellar. She also had more than $100,000 in the bank as of mid-February.

Cassy is a really strong candidate, said Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), who has endorsed her. I hired her to work for Sen. Cruz, when I was chief of staff we all worked together. Shes very well liked, very well respected in the valley. She knows Border Patrol really well.

The South Texas Democrats also know Garcia from her time working for Cruz. Vela said he has a good personal relationship with her even if he disagrees with some of her politics.

Shes going to be a damn good candidate for Republicans in that district, Vela said.

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'Corruption' or 'socialism': GOP takes aim at South Texas either way - POLITICO