Trump’s best path to victory hinges on Pennsylvania – Lock Haven Express
AP Photo/Evan VucciPresident Donald Trump waves to the crowd as he walks off stage after speaking at a campaign rally at Gastonia Municipal Airport, Wednesday, Oct. 21, in Gastonia, N.C.
WASHINGTON (AP) President Donald Trump still has a path to the 270 Electoral College votes he needs to win reelection. But it requires everything to break in his direction a second time.
Persuadable voters in battleground states will need to overwhelmingly swing in his favor. Hell have to win back crucial voting blocs. And his turnout operation will need to dramatically outperform Democrat Joe Bidens in an extraordinarily turbulent year.
In 2016, his chances of winning the election were those of drawing an inside straight in poker. The question this year is whether he can draw an inside straight two hands in a row, said Whit Ayres a veteran Republican pollster. It is theoretically possible but practically difficult.
While Trump has multiple roads to victory, his most likely route hinges on winning two crucial battleground states: Florida and Pennsylvania. If he can claim both and hold onto other Sun Belt states he narrowly carried in 2016 North Carolina and Arizona while playing defense in Georgia and Ohio, which he won handily in 2016 but where Biden is now competitive, he will win.
Trumps campaign is also continuing to pour time and money into Wisconsin and Michigan, longtime Democratic strongholds he flipped his way by the slimmest of margins four years ago, while trying to defend Iowa and Maines second congressional district and grab Nevada and Minnesota, two states his 2016 rival Hillary Clinton narrowly won.
Trumps campaign points to other factors pointing in their favor: The campaign and the Republican Party have spent years investing in a powerful voter outreach operation and have 2.5 million volunteers knocking on millions of doors each week. They have seen spikes in GOP voter registration in several keys states. And Trump voters are more enthusiastic about their candidate than Democrats are about Biden. The Democrats are driven more by their hate for Trump.
We feel better about our pathway to victory right now than we have at any point in the campaign this year, Trumps campaign manager, Bill Stepien, told staff on a conference call this week. And this optimism is based on numbers and data, not feel, not sense.
But polling shows Trump trailing or closely matched in nearly every state he needs to win to reach 270 Electoral College votes. Barring some kind of major upset, Trump needs to hold onto at least one of the three rustbelt states he won in 2016: Pennsylvania Wisconsin or Michigan, said Paul Maslin, a longtime Democratic pollster based in Wisconsin.
I dont see any other way for Trump to do this, he said.
Fox News polls released Wednesday show Biden with a clear advantage in Michigan and a slight one in Wisconsin. In Pennsylvania, recent polls show Biden ahead but vary on the size of his lead.
For all of that, though, Trumps team can draw comfort from this historical footnote: In all three states, Clinton led in the polls in the final weeks of 2016.
But Trumps fundamental problem, said Ayres is that a large number of states that he won comfortably last time are currently close.
While Trumps upset win in 2016 still haunts Democrats and has left many voters deeply distrustful of public polls, close watchers of the race stress that 2020 is not 2016.
Biden is better liked than Clinton and polls suggest there are now fewer undecided voters, who broke for Trump in the races final weeks four years ago. And Clinton was hobbled in the final weeks by a series of setbacks including the late reopening of an FBI investigation into her emails. The impact of any additional October surprise this time would be limited by the record number of voters who have already cast their ballots.
Trumps team, for its part, has been working to repair his standing with suburban women and older voters soured by his handling of the pandemic, while trying to boost enthusiasm among targeted groups like Catholic and Second Amendment voters as well as aiming to build support among Black and Latino voters.
Hes again at the thread-the-needle stage, said Lee M. Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. He noted that because Trump won key states by so few votes last time around, he has very little margin for error.
Still, Miringoff stressed that while many polls may favor Biden, they do not account for cataclysmic events, such as potential voter suppression, election interference, or court challenges that could halt votes from being counted. Democrats are expected to cast far more ballots by mail, which are rejected at higher rates than in-person ballots, even in normal years.
The polls could both be right and wrong at the same time, he said, because they could poll those who think they voted but whose votes end up not counted.
With 29 electoral votes, Florida is arguably the most crucial state for Trump. A loss there would make it nearly impossible for him to retain the White House. But the state, which has sided with the winner of nearly every presidential race for decades, is also known for razor-tight elections most notably in 2000 when Republican George W. Bush defeated Al Gore by 537 votes after a recount.
Both sides point to signs of promise in the state, with Republicans saying they see growing support among Hispanics while Democrats focus on seniors. While polling in early October showed Biden with a slight advantage, two recent polls have the two candidates neck and neck.
From everything I can see, its a statistical tie, said Jennifer Krantz, a Tampa native and Republican strategist who has worked on multiple state races. If thats the case, she said, ground game could make the difference.
In 2016, Clinton won more votes in the state than Barack Obama in both his races, with commanding leads in Democratic strongholds like Miami-Dade. But Trump ran up the the score with stunning turnout in smaller counties, including across the Florida Panhandle.
Trumps campaign expects do even better this time thanks to a robust turnout operation. Indeed, Republicans say they have registered 146,000 more voters than Democrats since the pandemic hit in March, leaving Democrats with their smallest lead since the state began tracking.
Democrats, meanwhile, hope to run the table when it comes to early voting and vote by mail though some remain cautious after 2016.
I think were all in this collective PTSD panic, said Democratic strategist Steve Schale, who runs the pro-Biden super PAC Unite The Country.
Its a similar story in Pennsylvania, where two recent polls show Biden maintaining a clear lead and another suggests a narrow one. Trump won the state by just over 44,000 votes last time, powered by an overwhelming showing in rural areas and small towns and cities.
Trumps team is counting on those trends to hold this time around.
Its deja vu all over again, said Robert Gleason, the former chair of Pennsylvanias Republican Party who lives in the city and has been helping Trumps campaign Theres a tremendous amount of enthusiasm.
Just as in Florida, while Democrats hold a substantial voter registration edge, Republicans have narrowed their gap by about 200,000 from four years ago, thanks in part to Democratic party-switchers. Trump campaign aides stress that number is five times Trumps 2016 vote margin.
But Trumps campaign is also facing grimmer prospects in areas like the vote-rich Philadelphia suburbs. And Biden is not Clinton, an historically unpopular candidate who particularly turned off white, working class men. Biden not only comes from the working class bastion of Scranton, but has built his political persona as a champion of those voters and their ideals.
Today's breaking news and more in your inbox
More here:
Trump's best path to victory hinges on Pennsylvania - Lock Haven Express
- The Second Amendment Victory in GOPs Big, Beautiful Bill: News Article - Independent Institute - July 22nd, 2025 [July 22nd, 2025]
- Second Amendment doesn't cover convicted felons caught trying to exchange drugs for guns at a South Boston skating-rink parking lot, judge concludes -... - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- Missouri sheriffs form alliance to protect Second Amendment rights - First Alert 4 - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- GrabAGun, a Mobile-Focused Online Firearms Retailer and Defender of the Second Amendment, Completes Business Combination with Colombier II and Will... - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Missouri sheriffs form alliance to protect Second Amendment rights - KY3 - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Guns & Moses Reminds Us All About the Importance of Faith and the Second Amendment - The Daily Signal - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Nathan Magsig: Why Our Second Amendment Resolution Matters to the People of the Central Valley - GV Wire - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- College student claims professor wouldnt grade her paper on the Second Amendment - WWNY - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- College student claims professor wouldnt grade her paper on the Second Amendment - WAFB - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- The Department of Justice Started a Second Amendment Task Force | An Official Journal Of The NRA - Americas 1st Freedom - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- College student claims professor wouldnt grade her paper on the Second Amendment - Action News 5 - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- College student claims professor wouldnt grade her paper on the Second Amendment - WABI - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- The Second Amendment And The Federal Prohibition On Unlawful Drug Users From Possessing Firearms Analysis - Eurasia Review - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Two illogical GOP issues: The Electoral College and Second Amendment - The Durango Herald - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- Second Amendment 'setback': Gun tax cuts stripped from Trump's 'big, beautiful bill' - Fox News - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- Mass Shooting Prevented Because of Second Amendment, Expert Says - The Daily Signal - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- An Official Journal Of The NRA | Why This UFC Fighter Believes in the Second Amendment - Americas 1st Freedom - June 24th, 2025 [June 24th, 2025]
- InfluenceWatch Podcast #369: Suppressors, the Second Amendment, and the Fight Against the NFA - Capital Research Center - June 24th, 2025 [June 24th, 2025]
- Cornyn Praises Second Amendment Provisions Included in Senates One Big Beautiful Bill - Senator Cornyn (.gov) - June 20th, 2025 [June 20th, 2025]
- DOJ Says AR-15s, Ammo Magazines Protected by Second Amendment in Seventh Circuit Brief - The Reload - June 20th, 2025 [June 20th, 2025]
- Chair Khatiwada submits report on Nepal Citizenship (Second Amendment) Bill in House - myRepublica - June 20th, 2025 [June 20th, 2025]
- Coders are saving the Second Amendment: DIY guns and digital resistance - The Hill - June 20th, 2025 [June 20th, 2025]
- Senate Version of One Big Beautiful Bill Could Hand a Big Win to Second Amendment Supporters - The New York Sun - June 20th, 2025 [June 20th, 2025]
- SCOTUS Turns Down Pair of Second Amendment Cases | An Official Journal Of The NRA - Americas 1st Freedom - June 12th, 2025 [June 12th, 2025]
- GOA Celebrates Supreme Court Smackdown of Mexican Gun Control Lawsuit: A Massive Victory for U.S. Sovereignty and the Second Amendment - Gun Owners of... - June 12th, 2025 [June 12th, 2025]
- New Political Thriller Explores Parental Vigilantism and the Second Amendment in the Wake of Tragedy - PR Newswire - May 22nd, 2025 [May 22nd, 2025]
- Second Amendment Victory: Trump Administration Overturns Forced Reset Trigger Ban - SOFREP - May 22nd, 2025 [May 22nd, 2025]
- Legal Adults, Limited Rights: The Second Amendment Fight For 1820-Year-Olds - concealedcarry.com - May 5th, 2025 [May 5th, 2025]
- Making the Fourth Amendment the New Second Amendment - The Assembly NC - May 5th, 2025 [May 5th, 2025]
- Federal Government Urges S. Ct. to Take Second Amendment Case - Reason Magazine - May 5th, 2025 [May 5th, 2025]
- Trumps Second 100 Days and the Second Amendment | An Official Journal Of The NRA - Americas 1st Freedom - May 5th, 2025 [May 5th, 2025]
- This Bill Doesnt Ban GunsIt Dismantles the Second Amendment Another Way - The Truth About Guns - May 5th, 2025 [May 5th, 2025]
- NRAs John Richardson admits he cant stand listening to Trump despite praising Second Amendment support - The Mirror US - April 30th, 2025 [April 30th, 2025]
- Trump administration says machine guns arent protected by Second Amendment - Washington Times - April 30th, 2025 [April 30th, 2025]
- Colorado Escalates its War on the Second Amendment : News Article - Independent Institute - April 25th, 2025 [April 25th, 2025]
- Stop the Second Amendment insanity | Letters to the editor - Sun Sentinel - April 25th, 2025 [April 25th, 2025]
- Labrador Backs DOJs Second Amendment Task Force, Joining Other States - Idaho Dispatch - April 25th, 2025 [April 25th, 2025]
- Voices of the Second Amendment Launches Live from NRA Annual Meetings & Exhibits - NRA Women - April 21st, 2025 [April 21st, 2025]
- Oswego Village Board approves second amendment of econoimic incentive agreement with Freddie's Off the Chain, increasing total grant funding to... - April 21st, 2025 [April 21st, 2025]
- Bills Protecting Veteran Second Amendment Rights Hit The House And Senate - The Truth About Guns - April 21st, 2025 [April 21st, 2025]
- Feenstra Leads Legislation to Protect Second Amendment Rights of Law-Abiding Renters and Tenants - Mix 107.3 KIOW - April 21st, 2025 [April 21st, 2025]
- Second Amendment advocate fires back against controversial gun bill: This is going to cost lives in the long run - MyNorthwest.com - April 3rd, 2025 [April 3rd, 2025]
- Restoration of Second Amendment Rights After They Are Lost - The Truth About Guns - April 3rd, 2025 [April 3rd, 2025]
- House Republicans Honor Second Amendment Promises, Advance Key Legislation - National Shooting Sports Foundation - March 28th, 2025 [March 28th, 2025]
- Congress poised to strengthen Second Amendment rights with national concealed carry reciprocity - Washington Times - March 28th, 2025 [March 28th, 2025]
- Senators team up to support proposed legislation protecting veterans Second Amendment rights - Washington Examiner - March 28th, 2025 [March 28th, 2025]
- Governor vetoes local lawmakers Second Amendment Protection Act bill - County 10 News - March 28th, 2025 [March 28th, 2025]
- Second Amendment Roundup: Court Seems Disposed to Rule for S&W and Against Mexico - Reason - March 13th, 2025 [March 13th, 2025]
- Governor Murphys Latest Plan is to Tax the Second Amendment Rights of New Jerseyans - Shore News Network - March 5th, 2025 [March 5th, 2025]
- Second Amendment Protection Act changes head to governor's desk - Wyoming Tribune - March 5th, 2025 [March 5th, 2025]
- WY: TELL THE GOVERNOR Support Second Amendment Protections! - Gun Owners of America - March 5th, 2025 [March 5th, 2025]
- Second Amendment Protection Act changes head to governor's desk - Wyoming News Now - March 5th, 2025 [March 5th, 2025]
- Gun Advocates Demand Results After Second Amendment Executive Order - MSN - March 5th, 2025 [March 5th, 2025]
- Could The Washington Post Go Pro-Second Amendment? | An Official Journal Of The NRA - America's 1st Freedom - March 1st, 2025 [March 1st, 2025]
- Second Amendment Concerns Raised After Long Island Village Bans All Gun and Ammo Sales - MSN - March 1st, 2025 [March 1st, 2025]
- Trumps bold move to strengthen the Second Amendment - Washington Times - February 27th, 2025 [February 27th, 2025]
- After York County shootings, its time to update the Second Amendment [letter] - LNP | LancasterOnline - February 27th, 2025 [February 27th, 2025]
- NSSF Praises South Dakotas Gov. Larry Rhoden for Protecting Second Amendment Privacy - National Shooting Sports Foundation - February 27th, 2025 [February 27th, 2025]
- Fear not the endless presidency: The Twenty-second Amendment - Convention of States Action - February 27th, 2025 [February 27th, 2025]
- New Florida bill would strengthen Second Amendment rights at colleges and universities - Campus Reform - February 27th, 2025 [February 27th, 2025]
- How USAID Funded the War on the Second Amendment | An Official Journal Of The NRA - America's 1st Freedom - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]
- Bills affect homeless, addresses wildfires, makes OK a Second Amendment sanctuary state - Yahoo - February 14th, 2025 [February 14th, 2025]
- Trump Issues Executive Order: Protecting Second Amendment Rights Where are we now? - Firearms News - February 12th, 2025 [February 12th, 2025]
- Executive Order 14206Protecting Second Amendment Rights - The American Presidency Project - February 12th, 2025 [February 12th, 2025]
- Trump is protecting the Second Amendment - Washington Times - February 12th, 2025 [February 12th, 2025]
- Trump Signs Executive Order Strengthening Second Amendment | An Official Journal Of The NRA - American Hunter - February 12th, 2025 [February 12th, 2025]
- Executive Order Seeks to Protect Second Amendment After Prior Administration - Turning Point USA - February 12th, 2025 [February 12th, 2025]
- Executive Order on the Second Amendment, which doesn't need any help - Daily Kos - February 12th, 2025 [February 12th, 2025]
- NRA Statement on President Trumps Executive Order Protecting Second Amendment Rights - NRA Women - February 9th, 2025 [February 9th, 2025]
- President Trump signs executive order 'protecting Second Amendment rights' - Buckeye Firearms Association - February 9th, 2025 [February 9th, 2025]
- Trump starts unwinding Biden regulations that infringe on Second Amendment rights of Americans - Must Read Alaska - February 9th, 2025 [February 9th, 2025]
- White House Wields Executive Power to Bolster Second Amendment: - Hoodline - February 9th, 2025 [February 9th, 2025]
- DeSantis Second Amendment Summer is more about his aspirations than Floridas budget | Opinion - Miami Herald - February 5th, 2025 [February 5th, 2025]
- Dueling Gun Groups Strike Truce To Push Wyoming Second Amendment Rights Bill - Cowboy State Daily - February 5th, 2025 [February 5th, 2025]
- Trump AG Pick: I Am an Advocate for the Second Amendment, but I Will Enforce the Laws of the Land - The Reload - January 19th, 2025 [January 19th, 2025]
- Second Amendment advocates skeptical of Pam Bondi - Washington Examiner - January 19th, 2025 [January 19th, 2025]
- Federal Judges (Still) Have No Earthly Idea What to Do With the Supreme Courts Second Amendment Cases - Balls & Strikes - January 19th, 2025 [January 19th, 2025]
- Tuberville, Britt reintroduce pro-second amendment Constitutional Concealed Carry Reciprocity Act - Yellowhammer News - January 19th, 2025 [January 19th, 2025]
- Donald Trump Jr. says younger people are getting into the Second Amendment amid GrabAGun SPAC deal - Fox Business - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- GrabAGun, a Mobile-Focused Online Firearms Retailer Defending the Second Amendment, to Become a Public Company through a Business Combination with... - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]