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At the beginning of the year, Ron DeSantis looked as if he might be the answer to all of the Republican Partys problems.

For the first time in decades, a conservative politician rose to national prominence on issues that unified the partys populist base with its beleaguered establishment and without triggering a Resistance from Florida Democrats. He seemed to offer Republicans a path beyond the divisions and defeats of the last 15 years.

Mr. DeSantis does not seem like the answer anymore. His poll numbers are cratering. His strength as a general election candidate is being questioned. This is partly because hes fallen flat on the national stage, but its also because hes slowly devolved into an older kind of Republican the kind without answers to the partys problems.

Hes been bogged down in the very issues that divided and hurt Republicans in the past, like abortion, entitlements, Russia and the conduct of Donald J. Trump. Against Mr. Trump and without Democrats as a foil, his instinct to take the most conservative stance has pushed him far to the right. Hes devolved into another Ted Cruz.

Mr. DeSantis will probably never be an entertainer like Mr. Trump, an orator like Ronald Reagan, or someone to get a beer with like George W. Bush. But to compete for the nomination, he will at least need to be who he appeared to be a few months ago: a new kind of conservative, who can appeal to the establishment and the base by focusing on the new set of issues that got him here: the fight for freedom and against woke.

Mr. DeSantiss varying campaigns against everything from coronavirus restrictions to gender studies curriculums werent extraordinarily popular, at least not in terms of national polling, but it was a type of political gold nonetheless. It let him channel the passions of the Republican base and get on Fox News without offending bourgeoiseconservative sensibilities on race, immigration and gender. In fact, many elite conservatives disliked woke and coronavirus restrictions just like the rank-and-file. Even some Democrats sympathized with his positions. As a result, he won re-election in Florida in a landslide. Democratic turnout was abysmal.

This combination of base and elite appeal made him a natural candidate to lead an anti-Trump coalition. In the last presidential primary, in 2016, Mr. Trump held the center of the Republican electorate and left his opposition split on either side. To his right, there was Mr. Cruz and the orthodox conservatives. To his left, there was Marco Rubio, John Kasich and the relatively moderate, business-friendly establishment. None of thesefactional figures stood a chance of unifying those two disparate groups, but for a fleeting moment after the midterms last year, Mr. DeSantis seemed to assemble all of the various not-necessarily-Trump factions under his banner.

Since then, Mr. DeSantiss coalition has unraveled. His superficial struggles on the campaign trail might be evident to most, but what is more easily overlooked is an overarching struggle to balance the competing needs of an ideologically diverse coalition in a Republican primary.

His challenge has two halves. First, his instinct to move to the right has been more fraught in a Republican primary than it was when woke liberals were his foil. After all, theres plenty of room to line up to the right of woke without alienating anyone on the right. Trying to be to the right of Mr. Trump, on the other hand, involves greater risk regarding both the general electorate and his relatively moderate supporters.

Perhaps surprisingly, Mr. DeSantis actually fares best among moderate voters in Republican primary polling. This probably says more about which Republicans are most skeptical about Mr. Trump than it does about Mr. DeSantis, but it nonetheless means that his conservative instincts routinely put him at odds with his own base.

In some cases, the tension between Mr. DeSantis and his base is unavoidable and his moderate supporters will sometimes lose. A politician cant always please every constituency. Abortion, for instance, poses a legitimate problem for Mr. DeSantis and every Republican nowadays.

But Mr. DeSantis has not always seemed cognizant of the delicate balancing act ahead of him and has committed errors as a result. His relatively soft position on Russia regarding Ukraine, for instance, overlooked that the elite, hawkish, neoconservative right not only cares deeply about containing Russia but would also inevitably be part of any successful anti-Trump coalition. Mr. DeSantis doesnt need to be a neocon to hold this support against Mr. Trump, but it does seem he needs to support defending Ukraine.

The second half is that the fights for freedom and against woke have not been a glue thats held his fractious coalition together. So far this year, hes struggled to make the race about these issues at all. Instead, abortion, entitlements, Russia and Mr. Trump have dominated the conversation.

Of all the things that have happened to Mr. DeSantis so far this year, this might be the most troubling and telling. Tactical mistakes can be fixed, but if fighting for freedom and against woke isnt a powerful, organizing theme, then hes not especially different from any other Republican.

This might not be entirely Mr. DeSantiss fault. The coronavirus pandemic is over at least for political purposes. The peak of woke might have come and gone as well: The arc of new left culture fights seems to have bent into a reactionary phase in which debate centers as much or more on proposed Republican restrictions on books, drag shows and A.P. history curriculums as on the latest controversy about the excesses of the left. Mr. DeSantiss renewal of a year-old fight against Disney the exact origins of which I suspect would stump even many regular readers of this newsletter is a telling indicator that his campaign against woke is struggling for oxygen.

At the same time as Mr. DeSantiss new issues have faded, the old issues have come roaring back. The Supreme Court and Vladimir Putin made sure of it. So did Mr. Trump, who attacked Mr. DeSantis for old statements on cutting entitlements. And while all of these issues make Mr. DeSantis vulnerable in various ways, there are few opportunities to attack Mr. Trump as too woke.

The devolution of Mr. DeSantis, in other words, is partly due toforces beyond his control. But if freedom or woke is not enough, he will probably need a new set of issues to uniteopen-to-anyone-but-Trump voters.

See more here:
Why Ron DeSantis Is Struggling - The New York Times