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Hours after his departure from the White House was announced, Stephen K. Bannon gave a crazed interview to the Weekly Standard,sounding more like a B movie actor in a gangster movie than an ex-White House adviser or media baron. The Trump presidency that we fought for, and won, is over, he said. We still have a huge movement, and we will make something of this Trump presidency. But that presidency is over. Itll be something else. Then it got really weird. I feel jacked up, he declared. Now Im free. Ive got my hands back on my weapons. Someone said, its Bannon the Barbarian. I am definitely going to crush the opposition. Theres no doubt. I built a f***ing machine at Breitbart. And now Im about to go back, knowing what I know, and were about to rev that machine up. And rev it up we will do. The mixture of grandiosity, irrationality and aggressiveness is stunning, a reminder that many people who reached the White House this year never should have been in positions of power.

Looking ahead, Bannon may prove more destructive to Republicans and helpful to Democrats than he could ever have been inside the White House. Granted, at the White House he leaked and backstabbed, but he was not at liberty to say publicly whatever nutty idea or nasty attack came into his head (at least not until last week, when he freely popped off to whomever would listen). There are no less than six serious worries that should plague President Trump and Republicans.

First, the shotgun marriage of Breitbarts white nationalism and traditional Republican policy and sensibilities will be under severe strain. Some from Trumps base may side with Breitbart and Bannon, looking at the president as a sellout. Others will take their fury out on the GOP House and Senate, trying to dislodge them in primaries or simply stay home in November 2018. Trumps base was already shrinking (although he denied it) before this; now it may be subdivided even further. Given how unpalatable Trump is to Democrats and independents, hell now be left with Republicans but only those not alienated before (#NeverTrumpers) or turned off by the post-Bannon White House. Neither Trump nor the GOP majorities can survive with only a fraction of a minority party.

Second, we do not know what Bannon knows about the Russia scandal. It is not known if he is the source of leaks regarding Jared Kushners meetings with Russians, but Bannon certainly would have every incentive to share with prosecutors and congressional committees whatever he knows. As Rosie Gray at the Atlanticwrote, Two sources close to Bannon said that he has for some time complained about Kushner being an issue in the Russia investigation; one of the sources said Bannon regards Kushner as the weak link in the White House when it comes to the investigation.Bannons animus towards the globalists in the administration is well known. Now, from the outside, he no longer has any reason to play nice.

Third, while Bannons xenophobic, isolationist and nativist brand of populism may have limited appeal, he certainly knows that the ossified right-wing agenda (tax cuts for the rich, cuts to entitlements) is even less popular. In this battle against the right wing hell be able to make common cause with Democrats to oppose what remains of the GOPs agenda, especially tax reform. Breitbart and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) may sound an awful lot alike when it comes to the power of the big banks, trade, corporate welfare and the Goldman Sachs-dominated Cabinet. The Trump coalition that elected him, already frayed, may be pulled apart at the seams.This points to an uncomfortable truth for Republicans: Neither the Bannon-Trump mishmash of populism nor the right-wing leftovers from the 1980s are a viable approach for a national party in 2017. If Democrats can resist the pull too far to their left, they will have a vast expanse from center left to center right from which to pick up votes in the midterms.

Fourth, Bannon has told biographer Joshua Green he isgoing to warfor Trump against his opponents on Capitol Hill, in the media, and in corporate America. That certainly includes his old nemeses within the administration. While Bannon might argue that Trumps pro-business allies are leading him astray or betraying populism, that is hard to do over a sustained period of time without suggesting the president is weak or easily duped. At some point Trump will invariably fail to follow the Bannon-Breitbart line (e.g. by seeking big tax cuts for the rich). Will he then be branded as an apostate? Inevitably this kind of help from outside true believers becomes a critique of a fallen leader.

Fifth, if the Russia investigation does turn up damaging information on the president or his inner circle, Bannon may very well seek to separate himself entirely from Trump, taking the populist base with him and quietly or not so quietly pushing impeachment fever along. One could imagine a sizable bipartisan majority (every Democrat, disgusted mainstream Republicans, GOP opportunists courting the Bannon base) in the House and Senate feeling sufficiently liberated politically to undertake impeachment and/or to push for Trumps resignation. Without Bannon and the host of misfits (Sean Spicer, Anthony Scaramucci, Michael Flynn, Reince Priebus) in the West Wing, the only thing standing between Republicans and a normal presidency is Trump. Thats plenty of incentive, especially if Trumps polling is near the 30 percent mark, for Republicans to dump Trump.

Sixth, does anyone really believe Trump will be a two-term president? Perhaps he limps through until the midterms in 2018. He might survive potential indictment and impeachment, and duck demands (from Congress or the special prosecutor) to reveal financial information he desperately wants to keep under wraps. Nevertheless, his political apparatus and his coalition have disintegrated, business leaders are abandoning him, and he has become a social pariah (as Kennedy Center Honorees boycott of the awards forced him to stay away and charities cancel events at his hotel). If he keeps this up hell be hit where he is most vulnerable in the wallet. Meanwhile, looking to 2020, mainstream Republicans who deluded themselves in 2016 will not be able to convince themselves that Trump is good for their causes or for the country.Why would he even risk a humiliating defeat (or victory, sentencing him to four more years of scrutiny) in 2020? In essence Trump is looking more and more like a lame duck (in the first year of his presidency!), someone whose weakness invites challengers within his own party, third-party rivals and congressional resistance (already high) to his agenda.

In sum, Bannons departure has the capacity to accelerate the centrifugal forces in the GOP, erode Trumps base, deprive him of political support to ward off the Russia investigators and ultimately guarantee that at most hell be a one-term president.

Link:
What should keep Republicans up at night - Washington Post