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In public, Republicans minimize the long-term implications of Trump. Dan Crenshaw, a freshman congressman for Houston and a rising star in national circles, argued that Texans can distinguish between national and local Republicans. To his point, Greg Abbott, the popular incumbent governor, had a 60% approval rating among Latinos in that very same Lyceum poll. But Trump at the top of the ticket is a major drag on state Republicans. In 2018, when Trump wasnt even on the ballot, Republicans lost 12 State House seats and two U.S. House seats. With Trump as the face and brand of the partyand with members of the state party increasingly identifying as Trump Republicans rather than traditional Republicans, according to primary pollingthe Texas GOP has an uphill fight to hold on to its dwindling portion of the Latino vote. As one Texas Republican strategist put it to me, it doesnt work to say that we are a welcoming party, we are working for you, but we are also a little bit racist.

Behind the scenes, however, the party is attempting to adjust to a new reality. Some in the GOP have tried to distance themselves from Trumpism in subtle ways, or at least to foster a Texas Republican brand focused more narrowly on core issues. In the most recent legislative session, the Republican-controlled legislature abandoned its fixation with bathroom bills in favor of school funding issues, property taxes, and other economic issues. And they are reaching out to new voters. Crenshaw, for one, has made a point of visiting schools, and even convened a youth summit, headlined by Nikki Haley, for almost 2,000 young conservatives. James Dickey, the Republican state chair, told me he spends much of his time counseling Texas Republicans that they can win if they work hard, but risk losing if they take success for granted. He believes the message has gotten through: No one says bless your heart to me anymore when I tell them we have to work to save Texas.

They also think they have a hidden ace. Trump may be a millstone among Latinos, but many Republicans believe that the national Democrats are an equal vulnerability in Texas. Dickey seemed content with the fact that, in his view, the national Democrats have lost their minds. Crenshaw nodded when I asked whether Sanders would be a boon to Texas Republicans, and he seemed pleased with the possibility, until he noted with some horror, What would happen if he won?

For now the numbers still favor the GOP. In January, Democrats fared poorly in a hotly contested special election in House District 28. Both parties invested heavily, but Republicans were more effective in tying the Democrats to locally unpalatable positions on guns and health care. It all resulted in a thumping 16-point defeat. Lets not overstate the importance of an off-cycle State House special electionGary Gates, the winner, wont even get to attend a legislative session before his term expiresbut it is a signal of how the next election will be fought. Manny Garcia, the executive director of the Texas Democratic Party, sees Texas as a battleground state today, but the Republicans still hold the home field edge. Trumps margin of 807,179 votes in 2016 has surely been eroded by changing demographics and motivations, but it likely has not disappeared. It will take an unusual, but not impossible, combination of events for Democrats to overcome that lead.

All this has energized Texas Democrats, though you wouldnt know it from party headquarters: a shabby suite in an equally tired building on the outskirts of Austin. But inside Suite 508, the sense of excitement is palpable; on a recent Monday evening, dozens of staffers and volunteers shuttled back and forth making calls, sending tweets, organizing block walks, and doing whatever else a modern campaign requires. Being a permanent minority is difficult. Money dries up, volunteers and voters stay home, and potential candidates dont bother to run. But a lot has changed in the wake of the 2018 uprising. When I asked Garcia how things have shifted over his dozen years in state politics, he said the biggest change is belief. That belief is evident in the campaign office, but also in candidate-recruitment efforts. More than 1,000 people participated in a recent candidate-training program, and for the first time in memory, Democrats will likely contest every election in every county in Texas in 2020.

Excerpt from:
Trump Could Doom Republicans in Texas. The Party Is Still in Denial. - Vanity Fair