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For Trump, the party is a bankable asset under any scenario. Foreign governments considering his companys projects might be more receptive knowing a once-and-perhaps-future president is on the other side of the deal. Audiences may be more apt to tune in if Trump starts a conservative news venture. Candidates looking for fundraising help will be courting Trump, enabling him to stockpile chits. So will members of Congress hoping to make inroads with his base.

Republican Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, a Trump confidant, told me hes spoken with Trump about another run and wants to see him mount a comeback. Grover Cleveland did it, Graham said, referencing the Democratic president who was defeated in 1888 and won again four years later. Graham predicted that Trump will indeed run againand that doing so is the best thing for the party, frankly.

Right now, assuming for the moment that Biden wins, its Trumps nomination if he wants it, Graham told me. (Like many other Republicans, Graham has not yet acknowledged that Biden has won the election.) He has a lot of sway over the Republican Party. If he objects to anything Biden [does], it would be hard to get Republicans on board. If he blessed some kind of deal, it would be easier to get something done. In many ways, hell be a shadow president.

Read: The 3 norms Trump could still break

An early test of Trumps enduring influence comes next month in Amelia Island, Florida, where Republican National Committee officials will hold their winter meeting and vote on the partys leadership. No other candidate seems strong enough to dethrone Trumps handpicked chair, Ronna McDaniel, who would serve another two-year term.

I get my most loyal acolytes and keep them in power, and guess what? former RNC Chair Michael Steele, channeling the outgoing president, said to me. Ive got power. Ive got influence.

But relying on Trump to run again could leave the party exposed. If he teases another campaign and backs out, the GOP will have sacrificed itself for him and blocked the rise of up-and-coming candidates for no reason at all. Simply announcing that hell run is enough to potentially clear the Republican field, or at least monopolize the attention that would normally be paid to candidates positioning themselves for the nomination. How are you going to say youre running for president in 2024 when Trump is telling everybody he is? Representative Adam Kinzinger of Illinois, one of the few Republican members of Congress whos been willing to publicly criticize Trump, asked me.

Even before the election, heretics inside the Trump-branded GOP were quietly discussing ways to wean the party from a polarizing leader who stood a good chance of losing. There are conversations among elected officials who recognize theres no future with Trumpism. Its a dead end, Jeff Flake, the former Republican senator from Arizona, told me.

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The Republican Plan for the Next Four Years Isnt Normal - The Atlantic