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But if Trump does not run for president in 2024 or if his popularity within the party fades by then New Hampshire will be a critical testing ground, and potential competitors are already assessing Sununus potential pull. Thats because, following the Iowa caucuses, any candidate resting their candidacy on a more moderate, nonevangelical base of support potential candidates such as former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie or Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan will desperately need a strong showing in New Hampshire, where moderates traditionally go to win over a more socially moderate Republicans and independents.

Im just looking at the path forward, said one adviser to Hogan. Sununu causes chaos for a large part of the 2024 field if he runs.

Even if Sununu doesnt run, he will be a highly sought-after endorser in the state. For potential candidates, said Wayne MacDonald, a New Hampshire lawmaker and former state Republican Party chair, Sununu will be, at that point, a fourth-term Republican governor. He has a great organization and a strong base of support, and that endorsement is going to be very important.

Trump, perhaps, is the one exception to that rule. He easily won the New Hampshire primary in 2016 and again in 2020, and its unclear if any Republican Sununu included could defeat him there.

Lewandowski said at a Mar-a-Lago event earlier this month that if Sununu does run against Trump in 2024, there is 0.000001 percent chance that Chris Sununu will be the Republican nominee for president of the United States.

Lewandowski suggested there is still time for Trumpworld to jettison Sununu with the filing deadline not until June.

I think Chris is very vulnerable in a Republican primary, so well see if somebody runs against him, he said.

Sununu has not been as critical of Trump as some Republicans, like Rep. Liz Cheney of Wyoming, Nebraska Sen. Ben Sasse or Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson. Sununu supported Trump in 2020 and insists he is not anti-Trump.

But Sununu has rejected Trumps baseless claims that the 2020 election was rigged, calling him misinformed. In another break with Trump, the governor said people convicted of participating in the riot at the Capitol on Jan. 6 should not be pardoned, and he said he didnt need Trump to campaign with him in New Hampshire.

Then came the Gridiron Club dinner in Washington, D.C., where Sununu later said he was simply telling jokes.

The needling of the former president which is frowned on under the GOPs current iteration does not appear to have hurt Sununu. In the latest Saint Anselm College poll, Sununu ranks favorably among men, women and people of all age groups and education levels in New Hampshire. Despite his moderate profile, he is viewed favorably by 86 percent of Republicans, and more than 80 percent of people who describe themselves as very conservative.

Hes navigated the Trump stuff, just objectively, politically really well, said Fergus Cullen, a former New Hampshire Republican Party chair. He knows when to hug him, and when to push him away.

Meridith McGraw and Stephanie Murray contributed to this report.

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The one Republican Trump can't touch - POLITICO