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Congratulations, Republicans! You won the Senate majority! Now, can you hold onto it for more than two years?

Looking at the 2016 Senate map, there's reason for some doubt. Im helping win the majority in 2014, and Im making the point that 2016s going to be a very different map for us, Ohio Republican Sen. Rob Portman, who is up in 2016, told the New York Times earlier this year.

He's right.

Republicans will have to defend 24 seats as compared to just 10 for Democrats in 2016. And, the raw numbers don't even tell the whole story. Seven seats currently held by Republican incumbents -- Florida,Illinois, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin -- were all carried by President Obama in 2008 and 2012. And there is chatter about potential Republican retirements in Arizona and Iowa; if either John McCain or Chuck Grassley decided to call it a career, each of those races would be major Democratic targets.

On the other side of the coin, Republican takeover opportunities are few and far between. By far the most endangered Democrat is Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid who survived in 2010 but could be facing Nevada Gov. Brian Sandoval (R), who won a second term with more than 70 percent of the vote on Tuesday, in 2016. Reid has said he will run again although his demotion from Majority Leader to Minority Leader might make him rethink those plans. The only other Democrat who starts the 2016 cycle in serious jeopardy is freshman Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet, who, like Reid, was a surprise winner in 2010. Sen.-elect Cory Gardner's (R) convincing win over Sen. Mark Udall (D) on Tuesday in the Rocky Mountain State will undoubtedly energize Republicans although it's less clear what the GOP bench looks like for a race against Bennet.

Outside of those two seats, there's almost no vulnerability on the Democratic side. Even if Sen. Barbara Boxer (Calif.) or Barbara Mikulski (Md.) decide not to run again, both sit in very, very Democratic states -- particularly at the federal level.

To win back the Senate majority in two years time will, likely, require Democrats to net four (if they hold the White House in 2016) or five (if they don't) seats. Republicans currently control 52 Senate seats in the 114th Congress but Sen. Mark Begich (D) is behind by 8,000 votes in Alaska and likely to lose, and Sen. Mary Landrieu's chances don't look great in Louisiana's Dec. 6 runoff.

Five seats is certainly not out of the question -- although it might be a bit of a stretch -- given the Senate map of 2016. Of the 10 most vulnerable seats listed below, Republicans hold eight.

The number one ranked race is the most likely to flip party control in 2016. To the Line!

The GOP gained control of the Senate Tuesday night, taking hold of the legislative agenda in that chamber. Here are three of the policies Republicans are likely to tackle as they take the reins in January 2015. (Julie Percha/The Washington Post)

See the article here:
The Fix: Why Republicans Senate majority could be very short-lived