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American politicians have often sought to exploit the nations racial and ethnic divides for political gain. During the Trump era, voters are not responding as expected.

The gap in presidential vote preference between white and nonwhite voters has shrunk by 16 percentage points since 2016, according to an analysis by The Upshot, as Joseph R. Biden Jr. gains among white voters and President Trump makes inroads with Black and Hispanic voters.

Mr. Trumps exploitation of resentments over immigration and race helped fuel his 2016 victory, but similar tactics this time have not had the same effect. Polls show that many white voters have been repelled by his handling of race, policing and protests.

The decrease in racial polarization defies the expectations of many analysts. It may also upset the hopes of some activists on the left who viewed an embrace of more progressive policies on race would give Democrats overwhelming support from nonwhite voters, reducing the need to cater to the more conservative white voters who backed Mr. Trump four years ago. Instead, Mr. Biden leads because of gains among those very voters.

The presidents pitch hasnt resonated even among the kinds of voters who seem likeliest to be receptive. Trish Thompson, 69, a white Republican who works as a security guard for pipeline and fracking lands in Brownsville, Texas, is switching from Mr. Trump to Mr. Biden because of what she called the presidents appalling coronavirus response and his misogynistic behavior and his inability to acknowledge his racial discrimination.

Over all, Mr. Trump leads among white voters by only five points in high-quality surveys conducted since August, compared with a 13-point advantage in the final surveys in 2016.

Mr. Biden has tended to make his largest gains in Northern states, where the president made his largest gains four years ago.

Mr. Trumps support has proved resilient in the Sun Belt, bolstered by perhaps the single most surprising demographic trend of the cycle: his gains among nonwhite voters.

In recent national polls, Mr. Biden leads by 42 points among nonwhite voters. That is a lot, but it is about nine points worse than Mrs. Clintons lead in the final 2016 surveys.

New York Times/Siena College surveys suggest that the presidents gains are particularly significant among Hispanic voters. Mr. Biden holds only an 84-7 lead among Hispanic voters who said they backed Mrs. Clinton four years ago, compared with a 93-2 lead among Black voters and a 94-3 lead among white voters.

Mr. Biden has lost almost exactly as much ground among nonwhite voters as he has gained among white voters, but because white voters vastly outnumber nonwhite voters in the most important battleground states, the trade-off favors him.

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The elections big twist: the racial gap between Republicans and Democrats is shrinking. - The New York Times