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Data shows the impact of an indictment on former President Donald Trump's standing with his party. | Evan Vucci/AP Photo

The indictment of former President Donald Trump is likely to deliver a temporary boost to him in the GOP primary but at the expense of his standing among the broader electorate that will ultimately decide whether he returns to the White House.

Thats according to recent polling conducted prior to Thursdays news of Trumps indictment.

Pollsters will likely go back into the field now, but the protracted run-up to charges being filed against the former president allowed a number of pollsters to gauge Americans opinions about the matter.

In a number of surveys released over the past two weeks, most Americans said the then-rumored charges against Trump were fair and serious. In an NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist College poll released last week, 56 percent of Americans said, taken together, the investigations into Trumps conduct were fair, and 55 percent of voters in a Quinnipiac University poll out this week said the probe into Trumps alleged hush-money payments to porn star Stormy Daniels was serious.

But among Republicans, those numbers were all reversed. They believed Trump was being unfairly targeted 80 percent of Republicans in the Marist poll said Trump is facing a witch hunt and New York County District Attorney Alvin Braggs office was bringing charges for conduct that is either legal or not serious enough to merit criminal indictment.

Tracking Trump investigations

The pre-indictment poll numbers are consistent with the political dynamic thats existed since Trump took office six years ago: The Republican base especially downscale voters and those who describe themselves as very conservative rallies around Trump after scandals, even as those controversies take a toll on Trumps overall image.

So whats best for Trumps chances of holding off Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and the other candidates for the nomination an indictment that rallies most of Trumps competitors and rank-and-file Republican voters around him likely makes it more difficult for the GOP to reclaim the presidency in 2024.

Over the past month, as the prospect of criminal charges hung over Trump, the former president was actually increasing his national advantage over DeSantis, who hasnt officially entered the race yet, among GOP voters. The indictment does little to threaten that lead, at least in the short term as evidenced by DeSantis and the other declared or likely candidates decrying the charges on Thursday.

But its not just that Republican voters think Trump is being targeted or treated unfairly. A sizable portion of them believe hes fully innocent. In the Marist College poll, in addition to four-in-five Republicans calling the investigations into Trump a witch hunt, just 10 percent of GOP voters say Trump has done anything illegal. Nearly half, 45 percent, say Trump hasnt done anything wrong, while a sizable 43 percent describe Trumps behavior as unethical, but not illegal.

Similarly, in the pre-indictment Quinnipiac poll, only 20 percent of Republicans said the existence of criminal charges against Trump should disqualify him from running for president, and 52 percent said the Manhattan case was not serious at all.

Those numbers could change once the details of the indictment are made public. But for now, Republicans are out of step with the electorate as a whole. Fifty-seven percent of respondents in the Quinnipiac poll say criminal charges should disqualify Trump from the campaign, and only 26 percent say the allegations in the New York case arent serious at all.

While most Republicans say the various Trump probes amount to a witch hunt in the NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll, its only 41 percent of all Americans. And 46 percent of Americans say Trump has committed crimes (compared to only 10 percent of Republicans), while another 29 percent call Trumps actions unethical, but not illegal.

In another pre-indictment survey released this week, the Democratic polling consortium Navigator Research found that 57 percent of voters supported indicting Trump for illegally using campaign funds for personal expenses a hush money payment to adult film actress Stormy Daniels and then lying about it, including a quarter of Republicans, 25 percent.

And the online pollster Morning Consult offered the first data point following news of the indictment, though there has been little time for it to sink in yet. In a flash poll conducted early Friday, 51 percent of voters said they supported the indictment, but only 19 percent of GOP primary voters agreed. (Polls conducted entirely in one day, let alone a half-day, are subject to greater sources of potential error than other surveys.)

There is one message for Trump defenders that is resonating: Just because Americans dont think Trump isnt the victim of a witch hunt doesnt mean they dont think politics is a factor at all.

In the Quinnipiac poll, 62 percent of respondents said the district attorneys case is mainly motivated by politics, including 93 percent of Republicans, 29 percent of Democrats and 70 percent of independents. Fewer than a third, 32 percent, said the case is mainly motivated by the law.

There are discreet limits to that argument, however. In Fridays Morning Consult poll, voters were split between those who said the New York grand jurys decision to indict Trump was mostly based on evidence that Trump violated the law (46 percent) and those who said the grand jury was motivated to damage Trumps political career (43 percent).

The coming days and weeks will bring more data, including following Trumps expected arraignment next week. And theres a hint in the Quinnipiac poll about how that moment could move the needle of public opinion.

Quinnipiacs pollsters cited Trumps statement earlier this week that his indictment was imminent and asked his supporters to protest and take our country back. They asked respondents if Trump was mainly acting out of concerns about democracy as a candidate who could face criminal charges while campaigning for the nations highest office, or mainly acting out of concerns for himself?

Of the subgroups identified by Quinnipiac, only one thought Trump was defending democracy in urging protests against his indictment: Republicans (56 percent). Majorities of all Americans (69 percent), Democrats (98 percent) and independents (71 percent) thought Trump was mostly concerned about himself.

Here are some of the people involved as the case against former President Donald Trump moves forward.

Michael Cohen

Trumps former attorney testified in 2018 that he made a hush-money payment on behalf of Trump.

Stormy Daniels

The porn actress is said to have received $130,000 for her silence about an affair with Trump.

Alvin Bragg

The Manhattan DA took office in January 2022 and inherited the investigation.

Allen Weisselberg

Prosecutors gave the ex-Trump Organization CFO immunity in their hush-money probe in 2018.

Joe Tacopina

A vocal member of Trumps legal team, he began representing Trump earlier this year.

Susan Necheles

She is one of Trumps lawyers who was on the defense team in the Trump Organization trial.

Robert Costello

Cohens former legal adviser cast aspersions on Cohens credibility before the grand jury.

Karen McDougal

The model is another woman who received hush money for her involvement with Trump.

David Pecker

The former National Enquirer CEO has been linked to Cohens efforts to pay off Daniels and McDougal.

Link:
The data's clear: The indictment makes Republicans like Trump more - POLITICO