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Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.V.) said she doesnt know whether her fellow home-state senator will run for reelection and hasnt asked him about it. But a presidential bid? He might hes talking about it, she said.

Theres no sugar-coating the dire position in which Manchin finds himself. After Democrats dominated West Virginia for decades, the state has gone full-blown MAGA in recent years. Former President Donald Trump won it by nearly 40 percentage points in 2020, and there are only 14 Democrats left in West Virginias 134-member state legislature. Manchins approval rating has plummeted, with 55 percent of voters giving him a thumbs down, according to a recent Morning Consult poll.

But interviews with 18 elected officials, strategists and political observers in West Virginia and Washington, D.C. reveal that Manchin isnt quite being left for dead yet. Even Justices former pollster said it would be unwise to count Manchin out.

There is a reason that Joe Manchin is basically the last standing Democrat in a state that has had a red tsunami since 2014, said Mark Blankenship, a West Virginia-based GOP pollster who worked for Justices 2020 gubernatorial campaign. You cant say that its impossible for him to win because hes won so much.

West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice (R) announces his Senate campaign.|Chris Jackson/AP Photo

Manchins GOP colleagues agreed with the sentiment: You cant take Joe for granted. Hes a formidable politician, said Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), who appeared as a featured speaker at Justices campaign kickoff last month.

The early investment from McConnells allies at the group One Nation could save Republicans money next year if it nudges Manchin toward the exit. Otherwise, the GOP will have to spend millions convincing West Virginia voters to part ways with a man who has not lost an election since the 1990s. Without Manchin on the ballot, many operatives see the state as an automatic flip, and Republicans can redirect their money toward other crucial battleground states.

It would be nice if we didnt have to, said Senate Minority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.) when asked if his party would need to spend money if Manchin retires. Well see how it all plays out.

Manchin first joined the West Virginia state legislature in 1982 at the age of 35. He served in both chambers before departing to run an unsuccessful primary campaign for governor in 1996. It was the only race he ever lost. He ended up supporting the Republican nominee over the woman who beat him for the Democratic nomination.

Four years later he became West Virginias Secretary of State and won the governorship in 2004. In 2010, he made the jump to the Senate, campaigning in a special election seat left open by Democrat Robert Byrds death.

Democrats best hope of keeping Manchins seat in 2024 involves him seeking reelection and a brutally messy Republican primary that leaves the eventual nominee bruised and broke.

Justice, while wealthy and well-liked, does not have the GOP field to himself. Also in the race is Rep. Alex Mooney (R-W.Va.), a conservative hardliner who trounced a fellow member in a Republican primary for a House seat in 2022. He is planning on running to Justices right with the help of $10 million from the anti-tax Club for Growth super PAC.

Democrats and Republicans alike said Manchin has been able to hold onto elected office in the past in part due to his skills as a retail politician, a key advantage in a state of only 1.7 million people.

He is the best face-to-face politician Ive interacted with outside of Bill Clinton, said Patrick Hickey, a political scientist who previously worked at West Virginia University. He has that Clinton-esque ability to make everybody feel like hes your friend and hes listening to you and hes concerned about you.

In 2012, Hickey said he invited Manchins GOP opponent, John Raese, to class. Within a week, he said, Manchin came into his class to glad-hand students.

Manchin, a moderate, has benefited from distancing himself from national Democratic leaders for years. During his first Senate campaign, he fired at Democrats cap-and-trade bill in an ad. His vote to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh in 2018 was credited with helping save him in that years Senate race. But Manchins favorability rating took a nosedive last year after he voted for and helped write President Joe Bidens Inflation Reduction Act. Thats left many of the few remaining Democrats in West Virginia feeling pessimistic about Manchins chances for holding on, regardless of his history.

I dont think he can pull it out, said Deirdre Purdy, chair of the Calhoun County Democratic Party. My county has so few Democrats in it, I cant even get a full committee together.

Manchin is now threatening to vote to repeal Bidens signature climate legislation with Republicans, arguing that Biden has extended electric vehicle tax credits beyond the laws specifications.

Given the states deep-MAGA hue, some in the GOP think it doesnt even matter whether Justice or Mooney wins the nomination because either will defeat Manchin. This states now solidly Republican, said former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.

Manchin has given few clues about whether he will run for reelection except to say that he wont make a decision until the end of the year. Amid that vacuum of information, political insiders have desperately tried to read the tea leaves.

When a political operative who has served as an adviser to both Manchin and Justice attended Justices campaign launch, it set off speculation among Republicans that Manchin may not run. Larry Puccio, Manchins former chief-of-staff and longtime friend, would only go to the event, the thinking went, if he had gotten a signal from the senator that hes bowing out. A GOP strategist close to Justice said Puccio will not have an official role on Justices Senate team, but the governor will talk to him about the race and campaign.

Some Democrats cautioned against reading into it, however. According to a person close to Manchin, Puccio will support Manchin for any office he seeks.

Puccio did not respond to a request for comment.

Jonathan Kott, a former senior adviser to Manchin, said he believes Manchin is truly undecided on another Senate run. In the 2018 election, Manchin waited until January days before the filing deadline to tell his colleagues that he was seeking reelection.

This is just who he is, he said. He just doesnt focus on the campaign till he has to. Hes busy being a senator for West Virginia and legislating. Hell sit down with his family, I would guess sometime in like December, and thats when theyll make a decision. Im pretty sure thats what he did last time.

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Republicans want Manchin to bow out, fearful that he may have one ... - POLITICO