Mediaboss Marketing

By Dina Smeltz By Dina Smeltz February 16 at 6:00 AM

For decades, the Republican Party has been more hawkish toward Russia than Democrats. Thats changed with President Trumps election. Even everyday Republicans are now more positive than Democrats toward Russia, according to several opinion polls.

In fact, on the issue of Russia cyber-meddling in the U.S. elections, Republican public opinion more closely resembles public opinion in Russia than overall opinion in the United States.

Heres an example. On Feb. 5, Trump spoke with Fox News host Bill OReilly. After the president reiterated his respect for Putin, OReilly interjected, Hes a killer, though. Putins a killer. To which Trump responded, What do you think, our countrys so innocent?

[Why back-channels with Russia cost Michael Flynn his job]

This softer line on Russia is out of step not only with GOP elites, but also with overall American views.

Americans remain largely unfavorable toward Putin and Russia.

Thats beentrue since Russia annexed Crimea in 2014. A Jan. 20-25 Quinnipiac University survey found that only 9 percent of Americans have a favorable view of Vladimir Putin, while 70 percent are unfavorable. And a Dec. 16-18 Chicago Council Survey (CCS) shows that American attitudes toward Russia have fallen to new lows after U.S. intelligence agencies concluded that Russia hacked into the emails of both the DNC and the RNC.

[How low can Donald Trumps approval rating go?]

Even well before Michael Flynns resignation as national security adviser and revelations that Trumps campaign aides were in contact with Russian intelligence officers, a majority of Americans disapproved of the way Trump has responded to the issue of Russian hacking (54 percent disapprove, 35 percent approve).

And three separate surveys conducted between Jan. 12 and 25 foundthat majorities of Americans believe that Russia interfered in the U.S. elections (between 51 percent and 64 percent, depending upon the polling organization and question wording).

[Unlike all previous U.S. presidents, Trump almost never mentions democratic ideals]

In turn, a majority of Americans support further investigations into Russias role (68 percent) including a congressional inquiry (64 percent).

The new special relationship: U.S. and Russia?

Many interpreted Trumps Feb. 5 comments to OReilly as suggesting a moral equivalence between Russia and the United States, which a range of Republican political leaders were quick to condemn. On the Sunday news shows, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell(Ky.) and Sen.Ben Sasse(Neb.) bristled, while Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.) and Rep. Liz Cheney (Wyo.) tweeted their discomfort with Trumps comments.

But everyday Republicans disagree with the party elite.

As other pollsters have discovered, self-described Republicans are now more positive than Democrats toward Russia and Putin. And a majority of Republicans think that the Russian government did not interfere in the U.S. elections and oppose further investigations into the hack, contrasting sharply with the majority view among Democrats and independents.

This is where public opinion among self-described Republicans is closer to views in Russia than among their fellow Americans: Arecent January Levada Center survey found that 7 in 10Russians doubt that their government interfered in the U.S. election (12 percent Russia definitely/probably interfered, 72 percent probably/definitely did not).

[This is why Democrats lose in rural, post-industrial America]

In addition, while Democrats say that Trump is being too friendly toward Russia (68 percent), only 15 percent of Republicans agree (ABC News/Washington Post). Republicans are more likely to say that Trump has about the right attitude toward Russia (75 percent vs. 11 percent Democrats).

Russians have noticed the change. They have grown more favorable toward the United States since Trumps election (from 28 percent just before to 37 percent in a Jan. 20-23 poll). Almost half (46 percent) expect that relations between Russia and the United States will improve with Trump in the White House. And 42 percent of Russians volunteer that Trumps inauguration ceremony was the most memorable event of January, more so than the assassination of the Russian ambassador in Turkey and Fidel Castros death.

Ordinary Republicans say they dont believe Russia hacked the U.S. election

Before the 2016 presidential campaign, a computer hack against the United States would have alarmed people of all parties. A February 2016 Gallup survey found large majorities of both Democrats (72 percent) and Republicans (77 percent) rated cyberterrorism the use of computers to cause disruption or fear in society as a critical threat facing the nation, ranking just below terrorism and Irans development of nuclear weapons. In a 2016 non-probability, opt-in ReportLinker survey of 513 online respondents, 53 percent agreed that Russia is the biggest cyberattack threat to the United States.

Moreover, in 2014 and 2015 CCS surveys, Republicans consistently felt more threat from Russia than Democrats, and were more likely to favor taking military actions to defend Ukraine from Russia. And on the question of Irans nuclear program and reducing the worlds nuclear stockpiles, slightly larger majorities of Republicans than Democrats said that Russia was working in a different (vs. same) direction than the United States, the 2016 CCS found.

All that was before Trump was elected president.

Perhaps Republicans have a lack of confidence in the intelligence agencies conclusions.Or perhaps ordinary Republicans are taking political cues from Trump rather than from traditional Republican hawks such as Rubio and John McCain. Or perhaps Republicans think that whatever hurts the Democrats has to be good for Republicans, even cyber-interference.

Meanwhile, Trumps equivocal positions toward Russia, including on the possibility of lifting sanctions, already appear to have consequences. Fighting has escalated in eastern Ukraine with unconfirmed reports of new armor from Russia arriving to rebel-held areas. Russia has deployed cruise missiles, violating a major arms control treaty; had its jets buzz a U.S. aircraft carrier; and sent Russian spy ships patrolling the U.S. East Coast.

With each sentence of praise for Putin or hints aboutlifting sanctions, Trump weakens any U.S. bargaining position toward Russia on Ukraine, Syria, nuclear disarmament and so on. No wonder Russians are more optimistic now than they have been since the government annexed Crimea.

Dina Smeltz is a senior fellow in public opinion and foreign policy at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs.Lily Wojtowicz, an intern at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, also contributed to this report.

Go here to see the original:
Republicans used to fear Russians. Here's what they think now. - Washington Post