Republicans should listen to Israel’s spies on the Iran nuclear deal | TheHill – The Hill
Republicans remain resolutely opposed to the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement, which prevented Iran from building a nuclear weapon in exchange for economic relief.
But for a political party that claims an unshakeable commitment to Israels security, the GOP would be wise to consider how Israels top spies men who have dedicated their lives to defending Israel from foreign threats view the deal.
Indeed, of the six living former directors of Israels storied foreign intelligence agency, four have publicly praised the Iran nuclear agreement. None have echoed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin NetanyahuBenjamin (Bibi) NetanyahuMOREs extraordinary criticism of the deal.
These former high-level intelligence officials are not alone. Israels military leadership, high-profile Israeli nuclear experts, former directors of Israels internal security agency and a former Israeli prime minister have all echoed Mossads former chiefs in praising the Iran nuclear deal.
Shabtai Shavit, Mossads director from 1989 to 1996, hailed the agreement as an opportunity for Israel to join a new Middle Eastern order. According to Shavit, the agreement bought us 15 years, in which all kinds of things could happen. Now, with Trump having withdrawn from the agreement, the Iranians have enough enriched uranium for at least one bomb.
Danny Yatom, Mossads chief from 1996 to 1998, called President TrumpDonald TrumpThe Hill's Morning Report - Biden: Back to the future on immigration, Afghanistan, Iran Juan Williams: Biden flips the script The Memo: Two months in, strong Biden faces steep climbs MOREs unilateral withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal a mistake, arguing that remaining in the deal made it easier to persuade Iran to make much more concessions.
Efraim Halevy, who led Mossad from 1998 to 2002, declared that the Obama administration scored a great success with the Iran nuclear deal, applauding the agreements rigorous monitoring system. In Halevys words, the deal blocks the road to Iranian nuclear military capabilities for at least a decade.
While Republicans continue to demand that negotiations over Irans nuclear program expand to include Tehrans malign behavior, Halevy flatly rejected such a maximalist approach. According to Halevy, the Iranians would ... have built a nuclear arsenal by the time non-nuclear issues such as Irans support for regional militant groups and its missile program were hashed out.
A fourth former Mossad director, Tamir Pardo, signed a letter in support of President BidenJoe BidenAstraZeneca says COVID-19 vaccine found 79 percent effective in US trial with no safety concerns The Hill's Morning Report - Biden: Back to the future on immigration, Afghanistan, Iran This week: Senate works to confirm Biden picks ahead of break MOREs approach to Iran. Pardo, along with several high-profile Israeli security experts, welcomes the American initiative to get Iran to again transparently follow the guidelines in the [nuclear agreement].
Pro-deal sentiment among Israels spies is not limited to Mossad directors. In an explosive interview, the agencys recently-retired deputy director an apolitical and widely respected intelligence official whose identity remains concealed for security reasons blasted Netanyahus relentless efforts to undermine the agreement.
According to this former senior official, Israels situation today is worse than it was at the time of the nuclear deal. We have a situation in which there is uranium enrichment in Fordow, there is activity in Kashan, there is work at Natanz, [Iran has] accumulated 2.5 tons of enriched uranium, and now advanced centrifuges.
Echoing former Mossad director Efraim Halevy, the unnamed official slammed Netanyahus demands parroted by congressional Republicans that negotiations with Tehran should expand to include non-nuclear issues. Such a maximalist approach, Mossads former deputy chief argues, endangers Israel by muddying the waters and distracting from what he views as the one true existential threat to Israel: an Iranian nuclear weapon.
The former spy also blasted Netanyahus complete opposition to the Obama administrations efforts to rein in Irans nuclear program. In his telling, Netanyahus relentless obstruction obliterated Israels capacity to shape the agreement.
Ami Ayalon, a former director of Shin Bet Israels internal intelligence and security agency agrees with his Mossad counterparts. According to Ayalon, when it comes to Irans nuclear capability, this [deal] is the best option. When negotiations began, Iran was two months away from acquiring enough material for a [nuclear] bomb. [With the agreement in place,] it will be 12 months.
Another former Shin Bet chief, Carmi Gillon, penned one of the more impassioned defenses of the Iran nuclear agreement. Writing in 2017, Gillon urged then-President Trump not to withdraw from the deal, calling it a blessing for Israel and a clear success.
According to Gillon, two years on from the signing of the agreement to curtail Tehrans nuclear program, Israel and the region are safer than ever because the threat of an Iranian nuclear weapon is more remote than it has been in decades. Thanks to the agreement, Irans nuclear program has been defanged and all its pathways to a bomb blocked.
Perhaps most importantly, Gillon wrote that the majority of my colleagues in the Israeli military and intelligence communities supported the deal once it was reached.
Gillons claim of broad support for the agreement among Israels national security experts is echoed by Uzi Arad, a former high-ranking Mossad official who served as Netanyahus national security adviser from 2009 to 2011. According to Arad, the majority of Israels national security community favors the deal.
Indeed, support for the agreement extends to Israels military leadership. Asked whether senior military officers viewed the Iran nuclear deal as good for Israel, Yair Golan, Israels second highest ranking military officer from 2014 to 2017, responded with a simple answer: Unequivocally.
According to Golan, the general sentiment in the senior ranks [of the Israeli military] was one of satisfaction [with the Iran nuclear agreement]. In Golans telling, it is in Israels urgent national security interest for the United States to return to compliance with the deal.
Indeed, support for the agreement among Israels top generals should come as no surprise, as the calm on the Iranian nuclear front allowed the military to focus on other threats.
Ultimately, Netanyahus hard-line approach to Iran is at stark odds with the consensus of Israels intelligence, foreign policy and military experts. Indeed, in a scathing op-ed, former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert labeled Netanyahus maximalist campaign Israels greatest failure.
Of course, this is not the first time Netanyahu finds himself on the wrong side of a critical security issue. Testifying before Congress in 2002, Netanyahu made a bold personal guarantee that a U.S. invasion of Iraq would have enormous positive reverberations on the region.
Israels spies surely disagreed with Netanyahus catastrophically wrong judgment then, as they do now. Republicans should take note.
Marik von Rennenkampff served as an analyst with the U.S. Department of States Bureau of International Security and Nonproliferation, as well as an Obama administration appointee at the U.S. Department of Defense. Follow him on Twitter @MvonRen.
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Republicans should listen to Israel's spies on the Iran nuclear deal | TheHill - The Hill
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