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Kevin DrumAug. 23, 2017 6:46 PM

Republicans are in a bind. They want to pass a tax bill, but (a) they dont want to pay for it and (b) they want it to be permanent. Sadly, a combination of PAYGO and reconciliation rules prevent this. What to do? One option is to design a bill that would get some Democratic support, and then pass a deficit-busting bill with 60 votes in the Senate. However, Republicans have no interest in working with Democrats, especially since Democrats would insist on a bill that doesnt benefit the rich. Thats a nonstarter.

So theyre back to square one. Bloomberg reports on their latest brainstorm for sidestepping the rules:

Under the proposal, the GOP would not account for things like expiring tax breaks when gauging the budgetary impact of tax legislation giving tax writers more room for cuts. Senate budget and tax panels are discussing the move to a current policy baseline instead of the standard current law baseline said the people who asked not to be identified because the discussions are private. The chief House tax writer, Kevin Brady, also signaled openness to the approach last month, saying it would lead to deeper tax cuts.

If youre even close to normal, youre thinking, WTF does that mean? Thats what Im thinking anyway. But a couple of charts will help us work our way through this. Lets suppose we have a tax break of five quatloos that expires halfway through the next decade. Starting in 2023, instead of saving five quatloos, you have to pay five quatloos. It looks like this:

If Republicans decide to extend the tax break, it will increase the deficit by 50 quatloos (5 years x 10 quatloos) compared to current law. This is, quite sensibly, how CBO scores things.

But wait! Suppose Republicans declare that their intention has always been to extend the tax break. In other words, current policy is that the tax break goes on forever. Then it looks like this:

The cost of extending the tax break is zero! Republicans are basically saying that since they planned to do this all along, it shouldnt count against the baseline.

But heres what I dont get. This is obviously a fantasy, and its one that CBO will never go along with. In the real world, extending a tax break thats scheduled to expire does indeed increase the deficit. So to do this, Republicans would have to overrule the CBOs score of their bill.

But if theyre this determined to do what they want to do, why not cut the crap and simply instruct the Budget Committee to declare that their bill has no effect on the deficit? It doesnt really matter how. Just assume enormous economic growth or something. The Budget Committee has final say over the score, so they can ignore CBO if they want. Whats the point of all this absurd rigamarole?

More here from CBPP if youre interested.

Or, as Donald Trump put it last night, Its a trick.

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Continued here:
Republicans Mulling Plan to Hide the Quatloos - Mother Jones