Republicans: Montana special election ‘closer than it should be’ – Politico
GREAT FALLS, Mont. Republican Greg Gianfortes closing motivational speech to voters ahead of Thursdays special House election in Montana is the same thing GOP strategists are whispering in private: This race is closer than it should be.
Its a recurring nightmare of a pattern for Republicans around the country, as traditional GOP strongholds prove more difficult and expensive for the party to hold than it ever anticipated when President Donald Trump plucked House members like Ryan Zinke, the former Montana Republican now running the Interior Department, for his Cabinet. Gianforte is still favored to keep the seat red, but a state Trump carried by 20 percentage points last year became a battleground in the past few months.
Story Continued Below
Democrat Rob Quist, a folk singer and first-time candidate, has raised more than $6 million for his campaign, including $1 million in the past week alone as energized Democratic donors pour online cash into political causes this year. Quist hopes that enthusiasm also contributes to an outsize turnout as it did in special elections in Kansas and Georgia earlier this year for the oddly scheduled Thursday election, happening just before a holiday weekend.
"I remember talking to people when it first started who said this was a slam dunk, Gianfortes it. And its not there anymore, said Jim Larson, the Montana Democratic Party chairman. It is a lot closer than people ever thought it would be.
Gianforte, a technology executive, has led consistently in polls for the special election, but Quist has narrowed that lead to single digits in recent weeks, according to private surveys. Gianforte has an edge, but its not going to be a slam dunk, said one national GOP strategist.
Your guide to the permanent campaign weekday mornings, in your inbox.
By signing up you agree to receive email newsletters or alerts from POLITICO. You can unsubscribe at any time.
Republicans have called on Vice President Mike Pence and Donald Trump Jr. to calm their nerves about turnout and prevent Democrats from having the only energized voting bloc in the special election. Both have rallied voters with Gianforte, and Pence recorded a get-out-the-vote robocall. Gianforte, who said little about Donald Trump when Gianforte ran for governor and lost in 2016, has cast himself as a willing and eager partner of the president this time around.
On Tuesday, surrounded by Trump stickers and some Trump hat-wearing supporters Gianforte said he was eager "to work with Donald Trump to drain the swamp and make America great again," invoking two of the president's campaign slogans. Pence's robocall may give another boost to Republican turnout efforts.
But the environment has changed since Trumps presidential win last fall. One senior Republican strategist warned that, based on the partys performance in special elections so far, if Republicans cannot come up with better candidates and better campaigns, this cycle is going to be even worse than anybody ever thought it could be.
The fact that we're talking about Montana a super red seat is amazing, said John Lapp, who led the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee during the 2006 cycle. It's also amazing how much money Republicans have to pour into these seats to defend them. It's still a steep climb in Montana, but we know that the reaction there means that there's a tremendous amount of Democratic energy across the country, a tremendous amount of fundraising that will then feed into races that are much fairer fights."
Democrats hope the passage of House Republicans health care bill just three weeks before the election will put the wind at Quists back. It has been the subject of Quists closing TV ads, and he has called the plan devastating to Montana.
GOP outside groups have ensured that Republicans have a spending advantage, though, airing more than $7 million worth of TV ads, versus about $3 million from Democrats. House Majority PAC, Democrats main House outside group, on Tuesday added a last-minute $125,000 TV ad buy to the race, on top of $25,000 announced last week.
But those ads may have reached a point of diminishing returns in a state that prefers retail politics, said Matt Rosendale, the Republican state auditor.
"The airwaves are saturated, and when people see political commercials come on, they completely block it out. I think theres a lot of money wasted on it," Rosendale said. "Its a necessity in Montana to meet people. You have to be able to go out and meet with them, look them in the eye and answer difficult questions face-to-face."
Operatives in both parties privately grumble about the quality of their candidates, with each arguing their paths to victory might be clearer with a standard-bearer carrying a little less baggage.
Republicans acknowledge that Gianforte has flaws Democrats exploited mercilessly in last years gubernatorial race, likely cementing negative feelings about him from some voters. Gianforte is dogged by reports that he sued Montana to block access to a stream in front of his ranch, kicking up a public lands dispute that hits home with Montana voters and has probably followed him into this House race, said Jeff Essman, the states GOP party chairman.
Democrats, too, acknowledge that Quist isnt without his problems. Republican TV ads repeatedly attack Quists various personal financial problems, including "a defaulted loan, tax liens, collections, foreclosure notices. Republican groups dug into Quists medical records and questioned his musical performance at a nudist colony.
"I havent seen this kind of opposition research on both sides on a House race in a long time, said one Democratic strategist whos worked in the state. This is what you get when candidates are chosen in a nominating process and there's no vetting. Some people would say Quist is authentic, an outsider, a la Donald Trump, but Quist has a problematic record because he hasnt spent his career in politics being careful."
Quist called in his own big-name reinforcements to activate the Democratic base and cater to the populist streak in the state, as Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders headlined a handful of rallies alongside Quist last weekend.
Its a gamble, Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) said, that could alienate some in the state, where Trump remains popular.
"Rob Quist is too liberal for Montana he is very liberal. Democrats who have won statewide in Montana tend to be moderate, and Quist is no moderate, said Daines, who campaigned alongside Gianforte in the final stretch of the race. Who did he parade across Montana this weekend? Bernie Sanders.
Missing out on the latest scoops? Sign up for POLITICO Playbook and get the latest news, every morning in your inbox.
Here is the original post:
Republicans: Montana special election 'closer than it should be' - Politico
- Republicans toe Trump line even in aftermath of deadly Texas floods - The Guardian - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Opinion | How Republicans can defy history and survive the midterms - The Washington Post - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- What the Big, Beautiful Bill Reveals About Republicans - Slate Magazine - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Are Republicans bowing to Trump even more than they used to? - KCRW - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- How Republicans sidelined the health care industry and pushed through historic Medicaid cuts - STAT - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Republicans urge US universities to cut ties with 'nefarious' Chinese-backed scholarship program - ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Full List of Republicans Who Voted To Slash Weather Forecasting Funding - Newsweek - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Republicans are already getting hammered over the OBBB - Punchbowl News - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Will Republicans in Virginia pay a price for the One Big Beautiful Bill? Here's what the math shows. - Cardinal News - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- These Republicans fought for green energy tax credits. Trumps latest order could threaten them - Deseret News - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- 'Nefarious mechanism': Republicans issue stern warning to US universities against Chinese scholarship pro - Times of India - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Republicans Are Already Licking Their Lips at the Chance of Another Reconciliation Bill - NOTUS - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Republicans say 'big, beautiful bill' will address states with high SNAP payment error, including Colorado - Denver7 - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Opinion | Everyone Hates This Bill. Dan Osborn Could Make Republicans Pay for It. - The New York Times - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- 'Big, Beautiful Bill': Which House Republicans voted against the bill? - FOX 5 DC - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- 2 Ohio Republicans taking on their own party to protect access to marijuana - News 5 Cleveland WEWS - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Republicans just cut Medicaid. Will it cost them control of Congress? - Politico - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- News Analysis: The healthcare cuts approved by Trump, Republicans go well beyond Medicaid - Los Angeles Times - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- People Are Saying We Might Not Even Make It To The Midterm Election After Elizabeth Warren Tried To Give Hope About Republicans Having To "Face... - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Fake Weather, Fake Flooding: Republicans Are Spreading A Bizarre Conspiracy Theory After The Deadly Texas Floods - HuffPost - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- WHAT THEY ARE SAYING: Trump & Congressional Republicans Big Ugly Bill Will Hurt American Families - New Democrat Coalition (.gov) - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- What the Republicans New Policy Bill Means for Higher Education - The New York Times - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Republicans used to be the fiscally conservative party, but look at us now - Idaho Capital Sun - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- Trump Goes on a Charm Offensive as He Woos Holdout Republicans - The New York Times - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- U.S. Rep. Castor Statement on Republicans Big Ugly Bill That Will Inflict Outsized Harm & Raise Costs on Floridians - U.S. Representative Kathy... - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- Opinion | Republicans may be cooking up a mess in Texas - The Washington Post - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- Republicans, Democrats start gaming out Trump's tax-cut bill hit to 2026 elections - Reuters - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- Republicans Pass the One Big Beautiful Bill Act Ahead of the July 4 Deadline - Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld LLP - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- These Republicans Savaged Their Partys Bill, Then Voted for It - The New York Times - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- How Republicans Re-engineered the Tax Code - The New York Times - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Republicans passed the 'big, beautiful bill.' Will it come back to haunt them? - USA Today - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Congressional Republicans defy expectations and send megabill to Trump - Colorado Public Radio - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Why Republicans once staunchly opposed to Trumps bill changed their minds - PBS - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Texas Republicans vote to send GOPs tax and spending megabill to Trumps desk after threatening to tank it - The Texas Tribune - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- The 2 House Republicans who voted no on Trump's sweeping domestic policy bill - ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- House Republicans pass their megabill, sending it to President Trump - Politico - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Jeffries calls out Republicans over Medicaid ahead of final megabill vote - Politico - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Which House Republicans voted against Trump tax bill? - USA Today - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- These House Republicans Voted Against Trump's 'Big, Beautiful Bill' - Newsweek - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- These are the 5 Republicans who voted against Trumps Big Beautiful Bill - AL.com - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Where Trumps massive policy bill stands in the House as some Republicans express concerns - PBS - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- House Republicans expected to pass Trump's massive tax and policy bill by July 4 - NPR - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Republicans Vulnerable to Losing Their Seats After Voting Yes on Trump Bill - Newsweek - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Who were the 2 Republicans that voted against Trump's tax bill? - NBC 5 Chicago - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- House Republicans advance Trump's tax-cut bill to a final vote - Reuters - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Congress passes Trump's tax and spending bill, with all four Colorado Republicans in the House voting "yes" - The Colorado Sun - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Republicans Just Passed the Worst Bill in Modern American History - Mother Jones - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Senate works a tense overnight session as Republicans seek support for Trumps big bill - PBS - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Article | Senate Republicans shock the House with a supercharged megabill - POLITICO Pro - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Senate Republicans struggle to push Trump's budget bill over the finish line - BBC - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Which Republicans Voted Against Trumps Bill in the Senate - The New York Times - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- The Republicans who bucked Trump on his big bill: From the Politics Desk - NBC News - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Why Republicans are rushing to pass Trump's "big, beautiful bill" - MSNBC News - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- House Republicans don't have the votes yet to pass Trump's megabill - CNBC - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Which Senate Republicans voted against Trump's tax and spending bill? - USA Today - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Fact-Checking Trump and Republicans on Proposed Tax Cuts in Policy Bill - The New York Times - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Senate Republicans just voted to dismantle Americas only climate plan - Grist.org - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Senate Republicans pass Trumps big bill but it may cost them in the future - The Guardian - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- House Republicans race toward a final vote on Trumps tax bill, daring critics to oppose - AP News - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- The Republicans in Congress Who Are Opting to Self-Deport From Washington - The New York Times - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Ahead of 2026, Georgia Republicans Are Quietly Installing Election Conspiracy Theorists on Local Boards - Democracy Docket - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Whats in the latest version of Trumps big bill Senate Republicans are trying to pass - PBS - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- The Top 5 Ways the Congressional Republicans Budget Reconciliation Bill Will Harm Disabled Students - Center for American Progress - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Republicans introduce last-minute industry killer tax on solar and wind in spending bill - CNN - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Young Republicans are fueling the GOPs generational divide on Israel - The Washington Post - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Senate Republicans tax cuts cost projected to rise to $4.45T - Politico - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Whats in Trump and Senate Republicans tax and immigration bill? - The Washington Post - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- Senate Republicans move to slash consumer bureau funding by half, risking hundreds of job cuts - AP News - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- Senate Republicans advance Trump's tax and spending cuts bill after dramatic late-night vote - AP News - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- Senate Republicans scramble to pass Trump's big bill before July 4 deadline - Scripps News - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- Trump attacks Republicans who voted against big beautiful Bill - Yahoo - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- Governor Hochul Slams Washington Republicans for Threatening New Yorkers Jobs, Small Businesses and Health Care in the North Country - Governor Kathy... - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- Trump reacts to Tillis not seeking re-election, sends warning to 'cost cutting Republicans' - Fox News - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- Article | Senate Republicans make steep cuts to wind and solar in updated megabill text - POLITICO Pro - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- Senate Republicans scrambling to pass tax-and-spend bill by Trump deadline - The Guardian - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- Republicans rush to pass Big, Beautiful Bill ahead of July 4th holiday - CGTN America - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- Senate Republicans Can Still Abandon Disastrous, Rushed Reconciliation Bill - Center on Budget and Policy Priorities - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- Gov. Kotek blames transportation package failure on Republicans who just wanted to go home - Oregon Capital Chronicle - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- Republicans dangle reprieve from tax retaliation as Trump bill heads toward votes - Reuters - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- News Wrap: Senate Republicans unveil their version of Trumps big budget bill - PBS - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]