Mediaboss Marketing

By Martin Wattenberg By Martin Wattenberg May 31 at 5:00 AM

On a recent episode of Saturday Night Live, Colin Jost opened the news segment by saying, Obviously, Trumps not done yet, but lets just say that Mike Pence is definitely warming up in the bullpen. The (presumably liberal) studio audience in New York applauded probably because they believe that any normal Republican would be better than Trump. Indeed, polls show that Democrats prefer Pence over Trump.

The prospect of a vice president preparing to take over the presidency would usually alarm members of the presidents own party. After all, the president won after many primary victories, and should be very popular with the partys voters. By contrast, the vice president is chosen by the presidential candidate with little or no public input, and is less likely to be known to and popular with the rank-and-file.

[Trump threatened Germany over trade. Heres what you need to know.]

But heres whats really surprising: Pence may be in the unusual position of being more popular than Trump not just among Democrats but also among Republicans. In survey data from the fall of 2016, Pence was the first vice presidential nominee in nearly five decades of data collection to be more popular among his own partys voters than the presidential nominee himself.

Vice-President elect Mike Pence said on Tuesday during remarks to the Heritage Foundation that President-elect Donald Trump's administration will "rebuild" the military and vowed to hunt down members of the Islamic State. (The Washington Post)

The chart below shows the average rating on a feeling thermometer a scale from 0 to 100 that rates how cool or warm respondents feel toward a political figure for the victorious presidential and vice presidential candidate among their own partys supporters. These data come from the American National Election Studies surveys conducted in the fall of every presidential election year.

In every year until 2016, the winning presidential candidate was more popular among his fellow partisans than the vice presidential running mate. Only in 1992, when Bill Clinton held just a two-point advantage over Al Gore among Democrats, was the rating even close.

[Thanks to Trump, Germany says it cant rely on the U.S. What does that mean?]

Until last year, when Republicans rated Pence on average six points higher than they rated Trump.

Why? Did ideologically dedicated conservatives prefer Pences consistently conservative track record to Trumps more variable positions? Or did the party faithful prefer the candidate more strongly identified as a Republican?

[How would removing Trump from office affect U.S. democracy?]

No. Neither of those were related to the preference for Pence. So what was? Views of Trumps character.

One question, for example, asked respondents how well the phrase honest described Trump. Respondents could say anything ranging from extremely well to not well at all. Republicans who thought that Trump was extremely or very honest rated him three points higher than Pence. But a quarter of GOP identifiers thought that Trump was only slightly honest or not at all honest; they rated Pence a striking 15 points higher than the president. And I found the same pattern for questions about how even-tempered and knowledgeable Trump is.

Lets note that these data were collected before Trump was elected. After Trump won and took office, many Republicans have rallied around him. GOP leaders like Paul D. Ryan and Mitch McConnell who maintained a cordial distance from Trump during the campaign warmly embraced him. Republicans in the electorate followed suit, with 84 percent approving of the presidents handling of his job in a recent Gallup poll.

But should the presidents character again be seriously questioned, the Republican preference for Pence could easily reappear with a vengeance. The scandals bubbling around the White House could endanger Trumps presidency. Day after day, news stories have been breaking that give voters reason to question the presidents personal character.

[So what exactly counts as an impeachable offense?]

If more Republicans come to think that the president is not honest, knowledgeable or even-tempered, then more will warm to the notion of President Pence.

One of the turning points in President Richard Nixons downfall was when Vice President Spiro Agnew resigned in a scandal of his own, and congressional leaders insisted on appointing Gerald Ford to replace him. Nixon had joked that no one would try to get rid of him as long as Agnew was next in line. Once the alternative was the trustworthy Ford, the choice between Nixon and his vice president looked quite different.

[Once again, its time to ask: How low can Donald Trumps approval rating go?]

Another major turning point came when seven of the 17 Republicans on the House Judiciary Committee voted to approve an article of impeachment against Nixon. As Republican Lawrence Hogan, father of Marylands current governor, said, The evidence convinces me that my president has lied repeatedly, deceiving public officials and the American people.

If current scandals lead Republicans to reach a similar conclusion about President Trump, many will be quite glad to see Vice President Pence warming up in the bullpen.

Martin Wattenberg is professor of political science at the University of California at Irvine and author of Is Voting for Young People? (Longman, 2007).

Continued here:
Republicans like Pence better than Trump. That's unprecedented. - Washington Post