Republicans like Pence better than Trump. That’s unprecedented. – Washington Post
By Martin Wattenberg By Martin Wattenberg May 31 at 5:00 AM
On a recent episode of Saturday Night Live, Colin Jost opened the news segment by saying, Obviously, Trumps not done yet, but lets just say that Mike Pence is definitely warming up in the bullpen. The (presumably liberal) studio audience in New York applauded probably because they believe that any normal Republican would be better than Trump. Indeed, polls show that Democrats prefer Pence over Trump.
The prospect of a vice president preparing to take over the presidency would usually alarm members of the presidents own party. After all, the president won after many primary victories, and should be very popular with the partys voters. By contrast, the vice president is chosen by the presidential candidate with little or no public input, and is less likely to be known to and popular with the rank-and-file.
[Trump threatened Germany over trade. Heres what you need to know.]
But heres whats really surprising: Pence may be in the unusual position of being more popular than Trump not just among Democrats but also among Republicans. In survey data from the fall of 2016, Pence was the first vice presidential nominee in nearly five decades of data collection to be more popular among his own partys voters than the presidential nominee himself.
Vice-President elect Mike Pence said on Tuesday during remarks to the Heritage Foundation that President-elect Donald Trump's administration will "rebuild" the military and vowed to hunt down members of the Islamic State. (The Washington Post)
The chart below shows the average rating on a feeling thermometer a scale from 0 to 100 that rates how cool or warm respondents feel toward a political figure for the victorious presidential and vice presidential candidate among their own partys supporters. These data come from the American National Election Studies surveys conducted in the fall of every presidential election year.
In every year until 2016, the winning presidential candidate was more popular among his fellow partisans than the vice presidential running mate. Only in 1992, when Bill Clinton held just a two-point advantage over Al Gore among Democrats, was the rating even close.
[Thanks to Trump, Germany says it cant rely on the U.S. What does that mean?]
Until last year, when Republicans rated Pence on average six points higher than they rated Trump.
Why? Did ideologically dedicated conservatives prefer Pences consistently conservative track record to Trumps more variable positions? Or did the party faithful prefer the candidate more strongly identified as a Republican?
[How would removing Trump from office affect U.S. democracy?]
No. Neither of those were related to the preference for Pence. So what was? Views of Trumps character.
One question, for example, asked respondents how well the phrase honest described Trump. Respondents could say anything ranging from extremely well to not well at all. Republicans who thought that Trump was extremely or very honest rated him three points higher than Pence. But a quarter of GOP identifiers thought that Trump was only slightly honest or not at all honest; they rated Pence a striking 15 points higher than the president. And I found the same pattern for questions about how even-tempered and knowledgeable Trump is.
Lets note that these data were collected before Trump was elected. After Trump won and took office, many Republicans have rallied around him. GOP leaders like Paul D. Ryan and Mitch McConnell who maintained a cordial distance from Trump during the campaign warmly embraced him. Republicans in the electorate followed suit, with 84 percent approving of the presidents handling of his job in a recent Gallup poll.
But should the presidents character again be seriously questioned, the Republican preference for Pence could easily reappear with a vengeance. The scandals bubbling around the White House could endanger Trumps presidency. Day after day, news stories have been breaking that give voters reason to question the presidents personal character.
[So what exactly counts as an impeachable offense?]
If more Republicans come to think that the president is not honest, knowledgeable or even-tempered, then more will warm to the notion of President Pence.
One of the turning points in President Richard Nixons downfall was when Vice President Spiro Agnew resigned in a scandal of his own, and congressional leaders insisted on appointing Gerald Ford to replace him. Nixon had joked that no one would try to get rid of him as long as Agnew was next in line. Once the alternative was the trustworthy Ford, the choice between Nixon and his vice president looked quite different.
[Once again, its time to ask: How low can Donald Trumps approval rating go?]
Another major turning point came when seven of the 17 Republicans on the House Judiciary Committee voted to approve an article of impeachment against Nixon. As Republican Lawrence Hogan, father of Marylands current governor, said, The evidence convinces me that my president has lied repeatedly, deceiving public officials and the American people.
If current scandals lead Republicans to reach a similar conclusion about President Trump, many will be quite glad to see Vice President Pence warming up in the bullpen.
Martin Wattenberg is professor of political science at the University of California at Irvine and author of Is Voting for Young People? (Longman, 2007).
Continued here:
Republicans like Pence better than Trump. That's unprecedented. - Washington Post
- The 2026 Senate map is tough for Democrats, but Republicans have their own headaches - MPR News - July 20th, 2025 [July 20th, 2025]
- Republicans food aid cuts will hit grocers in many towns that backed Trump - Politico - July 20th, 2025 [July 20th, 2025]
- Texas Republicans aim to redraw House districts at Trumps urging, but theres a risk - AP News - July 20th, 2025 [July 20th, 2025]
- Hill Republicans brace for another grueling fight over Trumps spending cuts - Politico - July 20th, 2025 [July 20th, 2025]
- The 2026 Senate map is tough for Democrats, but Republicans have their own headaches - El Paso Inc. - July 20th, 2025 [July 20th, 2025]
- The 2026 Senate map is tough for Democrats, but Republicans have their own headaches - Norwalk Hour - July 20th, 2025 [July 20th, 2025]
- The 2026 Senate map is tough for Democrats, but Republicans have their own headaches - Bay to Bay News - July 20th, 2025 [July 20th, 2025]
- What Republicans think of Musk and Trump after Musk's acrimonious exit from the administration - YouGov - July 20th, 2025 [July 20th, 2025]
- Ron Johnson, Wisconsin Republicans at odds with Trump over release of Epstein case documents - Milwaukee Journal Sentinel - July 20th, 2025 [July 20th, 2025]
- Georgia Republicans Have Gone Full Knives Out - Bloomberg.com - July 20th, 2025 [July 20th, 2025]
- Republicans are trying to pull Pat Dugan back into the District Attorney race - Billy Penn at WHYY - July 20th, 2025 [July 20th, 2025]
- Trump backs Texas plan to redraw voting maps to benefit House Republicans - Reuters - July 20th, 2025 [July 20th, 2025]
- 'Long overdue': Senate Republicans ram through Trump's clawback package with cuts to foreign aid, NPR - Fox News - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- Senate Judiciary Committee Republicans advance nomination of former Trump lawyer Emil Bove as Democrats walk out - CNN - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- Governor Hochul Convenes Cabinet Meeting on Devastating Impacts of Republicans Big Ugly Bill on New York State - Governor Kathy Hochul (.gov) - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- Trump blasts 'stupid' and 'foolish' Republicans amid calls to reveal more Epstein files - ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- A risky bet? Texas Republicans poised to redraw congressional map on Trumps orders - The Guardian - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- Republicans to tee up House vote on Epstein resolution - The Hill - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- Republicans are split over the Trump administrations handling of Epstein files - Politico - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- Republicans Fretted Over Ceding Spending Power to Trump. Then They Voted to Do It. - The New York Times - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- These are the Republicans who voted against Trump's $9 billion clawback of foreign aid, NPR funding - Fox News - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- Republicans Introduce Bill to Revoke the Charter of Largest US Teachers Union - Truthout - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- Trump pushes Texas Republicans to redraw congressional maps to help defend GOP's House majority - Fox News - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- Is This Restaurant the Only Thing Democrats and Republicans Agree On? - The New York Times - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- Youre Irrelevant: House Republicans Roll Their Eyes at the Freedom Caucus - NOTUS - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- Republicans plow ahead on cuts to PBS and foreign aid - Axios - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- Susan Collins finally got her dream job. Fellow Republicans are making it a nightmare. - Politico - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Republicans in Congress Shift to Backing Ukraine, Matching Trumps Reversal - The New York Times - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- House Speaker Johnson joins growing number of Republicans pressing Trump administration for more transparency on Epstein case - CNN - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Trump tells Texas Republicans to redraw the state congressional map to help keep House majority - AP News - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Behind Republicans Risky Bid to Draw Themselves Five More Seats in Texas - Cook Political Report - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- A closer look at where Senate Republicans stand on Trumps rescission request - PBS - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Senate Republicans narrowly advance Trump's $9 billion spending cut package - NBC News - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- House Republicans block Democratic maneuver to force release of Epstein files - Axios - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- For Some Republicans, Trumps Shift on Epstein Is Just the Latest Breach - The New York Times - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Republicans race to slash $9bn for public broadcasting and foreign aid - The Guardian - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Speaker Mike Johnson and other Republicans break with Trump on Epstein - The Washington Post - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Republicans move to block Democratic effort to force release of Epstein files - The Guardian - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Republicans renew a bid to remove noncitizens from the census tally behind voting maps - NPR - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- These Republicans Want More Details Over Handling of Epstein Files - Newsweek - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Opinion | Mamdani for Mayor (if You Want to Help the Republicans) - The New York Times - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Republicans Proceed with Bill to Increase Energy Costs and Make Americans More Vulnerable to Nuclear Threats - House.gov - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Texas Redistricting Maneuver May Harm Republicans More Than It Helps - The American Prospect - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Texas Republicans Oldest Trick In The Book - split-ticket.org - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Republicans in Congress break with Trump on his handling of the Epstein files - NBC News - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Republicans declared it crypto week in the House. Its not going as planned - AP News - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Republicans declared it crypto week in the House. Its not going as planned - WHEC.com - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Ohio House Republicans will try to override Gov. DeWine property tax vetoes - Ohio Capital Journal - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- 211 House Republicans Vote to Block Release of Epstein Files - The New Republic - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- NC Republicans in Congress respond to Gov. Stein's letter on Trump budget - WRAL.com - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Senate Republicans divided over looming vote to rescind $9 billion in spending - The Spokesman-Review - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Republicans confirm Whitney Hermandorfer, the first judge of Trumps second term - MSNBC News - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Trump is crushing it, but the Republicans can still blow it in 2026 and 2028 - The Hill - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- Jan. 6 Rioters Are the New Hot Event in Town for Republicans - The Wall Street Journal - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- Republicans and Democrats visited Alligator Alcatraz for the first time. Heres what they saw. - Politico - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- Pollster: Republicans outnumber Democrats in number of active registered voters in Louisiana for first time - louisianaradionetwork.com - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- Cortez Masto Blasts Republicans for Refusing to Fix the Provision in Their Tax Bill that Limits the Wagering Loss Deduction - Senator Catherine Cortez... - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- Karoline Leavitt Just Made A Trump Claim So Ridiculous That Even Republicans Are Calling It Out - Yahoo - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- Republicans Blame Canada for Wildfire Smoke Suffocating the U.S. - The New York Times - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Senate Republicans block attempt to roll back massive tax hike on professional gamblers - AP News - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Republicans run a risky strategy for holding the House that rests on redrawn maps - Politico - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- As Texas Republicans prepare for mid-decade redistricting, cautionary tales loom from the past - The Texas Tribune - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Trump warns Republicans against rejecting cuts to PBS and NPR - The Hill - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Republicans probably shouldve read their far-right megabill before passing it - MSNBC News - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Republicans Are Changing Their Tune on Immigration: Poll - Newsweek - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Kelly: Republicans cut health care and food for AZ families so the wealthy could pay lower taxes - Arizona Mirror - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Think Democrats and Republicans can't work together? On sealing eviction records, they do. - Stateline - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- How Republicans Rejected A Texas Flood Warning System - The Lever - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Texas Republicans have a brazen new plan to block Democrats from retaking the House in 2026 - Mother Jones - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Ron Faucheux: Will the Big Beautiful Bill sink Republicans? - NOLA.com - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- The big, beautiful bill could get ugly for Republicans - The Hill - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Republicans push for business sanction on sanctuary cities - NJ Spotlight News - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Nicolle Wallace: Trump 'has turned Republicans in the Senate into ghosts' - MSN - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Jury finds former head of Island County Republicans guilty in Elections Office mask mandate case - Whidbey News-Times - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Charlie Kirk sounds the alarm on the biggest threat to Republicans holding the White House in 2028 - Fox News - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Jon Stewart Rips Republicans for Trying to Jedi Mind Trick Americans Into Thinking There Never Was an Epstein List | Video - Yahoo - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Republicans toe Trump line even in aftermath of deadly Texas floods - The Guardian - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Opinion | How Republicans can defy history and survive the midterms - The Washington Post - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- What the Big, Beautiful Bill Reveals About Republicans - Slate Magazine - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]
- Are Republicans bowing to Trump even more than they used to? - KCRW - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]