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Republicans are strong favorites to retake the Senate majority this fall, according to The Post's new Election Lab model. (Read more about it here.)

According to the model, which was built for The Post by political scientist and Monkey Cage blog author John Sides, Republicans have an 82 percent chance of claiming the six seats they need to move back into the majority. Explains Sides:

The main problem for Democrats is that its a midterm year and the presidents party almost always loses seats in the midterm. Moreover, conditionsmake it difficultfor Democrats to overcome this tendency: The economy is not growing that strongly and, partly as a consequence, President Obama is not that popular. Moreover, as many have noted, many seats that the Democrats must defend this year are in Republican-leaning states.

Given these conditions, thepolitical science literaturesuggests that quality Republican candidates should emerge. This is because quality candidates are strategic: They tend to run when their chances of winning are higher. Thus, many Republican candidates have significant political experience in state legislatures, the U.S. House of Representatives, and in other offices. (In states where primaries havent taken place, we assume that the eventual party nominees will have an average experience level like that of nominees in similar races in the past.)

Of the two Republican seats seen as potential pickups for Democrats, neither look promising. Republicans have a 94.37 percent chance of holding onto the open Georgia seat and upwards of a 97 percent chance of keeping the Kentucky seat. On the other hand, there are currently eight Democratic-held seats where the Election Lab gives Republicans a better than 50 percent chance of winning. In order, they are:

1. South Dakota (99.14 percent of GOP takeover)

2. West Virginia (94.58 percent)

3. Montana (73.05 percent)

4. Louisiana (72.48 percent)

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Republicans have an 82 percent chance of winning back the Senate