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Will Republicans win control of the Senate in this falls elections?

Its a risky bet, even in what is shaping up to be a solid year for Republicans that will see them staying in control of the House.

Theyll gain three or four seats in the Senate, perhaps five, as they capitalize on President Obamas sinking ratings, an economy thats recovering in fits and starts, and a sense that U.S. foreign policy is bogged down.

To take control, though, the GOP needs a net gain of six seats. Its not an impossible task, but its a tough one.

Either way, the margin will be slender: 51-49 or even 50-50, with Vice President Joe Biden being called on to cast tie-breaking votes.

Six months out, it appears races in eight states -- Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana, Montana, North Carolina, South Dakota and West Virginia -- will decide who controls a majority in the upper chamber. All but Georgia are now Democratic seats.

The GOP seems poised to flip seats in Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia. In the last two, long-time incumbents are retiring. In Montana, Max Baucus has already departed to become the U.S. ambassador to China.

Democratic incumbents in Alaska and North Carolina appear to be in danger as well. Republicans would be assured of a tie if they win all five of these seats and dont lose any that they hold now. If it ends up 50-50, Sen. Angus King (I-N.H.) may be the most important man in Washington for a while. He caucuses with Democrats now and would be pressed to stay with them. But Republicans, too, will court him, offering key committee posts and other sweeteners to cross the aisle.

At the moment, once-vulnerable Democratic incumbents seem to be bouncing back in Arkansas and Louisiana. One reason: Their support for Obamacare isnt scaring away many voters, thus stripping Republicans of a key issue they were hoping to use successfully in those two states and others. Republican efforts to tie the Democrats to Obama arent getting much traction, either. The presidents delay of the Keystone XL Pipeline gives Mark Pryor of Arkansas and Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, both pipeline supporters, room to criticize him and score points at home.

If Republican chances in Arkansas and Louisiana dont improve, look for the GOP to try to put Colorado, Iowa and Michigan in play. Democrats are narrow favorites to hold onto those seats now, so theyre not on our list. Republicans cant openly root for what would help them the most: an economic reversal, a war or an act of terrorism. But theyll be set to pounce, saying Democrats have hurt the economy. (Thats an iffy argument in some areas, where Democrats will argue that the economy is finally improving after the recession.)

Excerpt from:
Republicans Can Win Back the Senate, but Will They?