Republicans Are Playing With a Stacked Deck in the Senate – New York Magazine
The upper chamber of Congress, where acreage gets more representation than actual voters.
Republicans love wide open, empty spaces. From the Oval Office to many Twitter precincts, they like to brandish maps of the 2016-presidential-election results by congressional district, or even by county, implicitly suggesting the bloody-red hues signify political dominance:
This is extremely misleading because Americans are not distributed equally by geography, of course, and acreage does not receive representation in our electoral system, right? Wrong: Theres the United States Senate.
Those who look at all the close presidential elections since 2000 and the roughly equivalent levels of party self-identification and assume the two parties have an equal shot at political power may be missing a subtle shift with profound implications: There are now far more red than blue states, and they have equal representation in the Senate.
As David Wasserman explains at FiveThirtyEight:
In the last few decades, Democrats have expanded their advantages in California and New York states with huge urban centers that combined to give Clinton a 6 million vote edge, more than twice her national margin. But those two states elect only 4 percent of the Senate. Meanwhile, Republicans have made huge advances in small rural states think Arkansas, North and South Dakota, Iowa, Louisiana, Montana and West Virginia that wield disproportionate power in the upper chamber compared to their populations
Republicans dont even need to win any swing states to win a Senate majority: 52 seats are in states where the 2016 presidential margin was at least 5 percentage points more Republican than the national outcome. By contrast, there are just 28 seats in states where the margin was at least 5 points more Democratic, and only 20 seats in swing states.
You can see this played out on the current and future Senate landscapes, where sometimes sharp partisan differences occur because only one third of the seats are up in any given cycle.
Democrats have a famously difficult landscape for 2018, defending 25 of 34 seats, with ten Democrats running in states carried by Donald Trump last year (only one GOP incumbent, Dean Heller of Nevada, is running in a state carried by Hillary Clinton).
It gets much better after 2018, right, but the red state/blue state factor limits Democratic opportunities for gains, even in theoretically favorable years.
In 2020, Republicans will be defending 22 Senate seats, with Democrats only defending 11 in 2020. But only two of those 2020 Republicans will be running in states carried by Clinton in 2016, and both of those were relatively close states (Colorado and Maine). In 2022, Republicans will again have to defend 22 seats. But not a single one is in a 2016 blue state.
Republicans having an advantage in the Senate carries no guarantees: At the moment, the Cook Political Report shows Democrats leading in all ten 2016 red states where they are defending Senate seats. If Democrats hold their own in the Senate next year, and particularly if they do well in the 2020 presidential contest, there is no reason they cannot gain control of the upper chamber in 2020 and hold it through 2022. But theyll be fighting a small-state bias built right into the system by the Constitution, which makes a mockery of the idea of equal representation.
As Tillerson meets with Duterte, the Pentagon mulls opening a new front in Americas war against the (so-called) Islamic State.
Hes just the latest in a growing trend of liberal-leaning politicians and political operatives taking up podcasting.
Nobody thought Judge Roy Moore had a chance to win a special Senate election in Alabama, until his main opponents began destroying each other.
The venture capitalist was an early passenger on the Trump Train, but it looks like hes steeling himself for a derailment.
McEnany once mocked Barack Obama for having a brother who lives in a hut in Kenya, and expressed support for the birther movement.
He announced a boost on high-end income-tax rates to fund public-transit fixes and reduced-fare MetroCards.
Congressional Democrats and Republicans can probably avoid a government shutdown or a debt default. But Trumps border wall could be a deal-breaker.
Trump wants to let coal companies pay well below market rate for the right to despoil public lands and damage the climate.
The GOPs advantage in dominating small states is giving it a permanent advantage in controlling the U.S. Senate, even in bad years for the party.
This is the third time in 100 years weve had this alignment of government, says Paul Ryan. So, how did the previous two go?
The government said it was a terrorist attack, but the men claimed they were defending democracy via a legitimate rebellion.
Diplomats complain that the former Exxon CEO is a surprisingly ineffectual manager but that may be what Trump wants.
Many have tried. All have failed.
A new Times report says that some Republicans, including Pence, are quietly betting against Trump being willing or able to run for president again.
No one was injured in the Saturday-morning blast, which may have been a domestic terrorist attack.
The U.S.-drafted resolution, which received unanimous support, is the first international measure taken against Pyongyang since Trump took office.
The DOJ inserting itself into this debate would represent a dramatic break with history and prior practices.
Conservative commentator Eric Bolling is the latest Fox News staffer to be accused of lewd behavior.
See original here:
Republicans Are Playing With a Stacked Deck in the Senate - New York Magazine
- Johnson says he had 'thoughtful' conversation with MTG about bucking Republicans on healthcare - Politico - October 13th, 2025 [October 13th, 2025]
- Why Republicans attempts to kill Obamacare keep backfiring - The Washington Post - October 13th, 2025 [October 13th, 2025]
- Republicans Arent Just Gutting Health Care. Theyre Taking Your Sick Leave, Too - Rolling Stone - October 13th, 2025 [October 13th, 2025]
- Republicans hope Erika Kirk can bring more young women into the party - NBC News - October 13th, 2025 [October 13th, 2025]
- Republicans who voted for RFK Jr. baffled by his autism-circumcision claims - The Independent - October 13th, 2025 [October 13th, 2025]
- Republicans try to weaken 50-year-old law protecting whales, seals and polar bears - ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos - October 13th, 2025 [October 13th, 2025]
- Sen. Chuck Schumer says Republicans are 'feeling the heat' about the American health care crisis - MSNBC News - October 13th, 2025 [October 13th, 2025]
- Oakland University police are investigating after Oakland County Republicans said a student at the school published a social media post calling for... - October 13th, 2025 [October 13th, 2025]
- Republicans try to weaken 50-year-old law protecting whales, seals and polar bears - AP News - October 13th, 2025 [October 13th, 2025]
- Few Legislative Republicans Break with Trump on Jailing Pritzker - The Illinoize - October 13th, 2025 [October 13th, 2025]
- Press Release: Senator Mark Kelly Urges Republicans to Address Rising Health Care Costs During Recent Interviews - Quiver Quantitative - October 13th, 2025 [October 13th, 2025]
- GOP leaders are encouraging Pennsylvania Republicans to embrace mail-in voting. It appears to be working. - Post-Gazette - October 13th, 2025 [October 13th, 2025]
- KING: The College Republicans letter to the Board dishonors the University - The Cavalier Daily - October 13th, 2025 [October 13th, 2025]
- Amid sagging revenues, NH Republicans to push for lowering key business tax - New Hampshire Public Radio - October 13th, 2025 [October 13th, 2025]
- Republicans try to weaken 50-year-old law credited with saving rare whales - Yahoo News UK - October 13th, 2025 [October 13th, 2025]
- Letter to the editor: This is what Republicans are supporting - The Mendocino Voice - October 13th, 2025 [October 13th, 2025]
- Republicans Have an Opportunity to Score in New York Inside Sources - Prescott eNews - October 13th, 2025 [October 13th, 2025]
- Condemns Senate Republicans for Attacking Abortion Access Instead of Working to Reopen the Government - Reproductive Freedom for All - Reproductive... - October 11th, 2025 [October 11th, 2025]
- Bookman: Republicans will pay for inaction on expiring health care subsidies - Georgia Recorder - October 11th, 2025 [October 11th, 2025]
- Republicans vote to roll back Biden-era restrictions on mining and drilling in 3 Western states - ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos - October 11th, 2025 [October 11th, 2025]
- MAGA Republicans Threaten Going Nuclear To End Government Shutdown - Yahoo News Singapore - October 11th, 2025 [October 11th, 2025]
- WisDems: Wisconsin Republicans fight to raise health care prices by keeping the government shutdown - WisPolitics - October 11th, 2025 [October 11th, 2025]
- Colorado Democrats push Republicans to negotiate on health care to reopen federal government - Colorado Newsline - October 11th, 2025 [October 11th, 2025]
- Republicans reject push to block Trump from using Qatari jet as Air Force One - Politico - October 11th, 2025 [October 11th, 2025]
- Ohio Republicans want public schools to teach positive impacts of Christianity on history - Ohio Capital Journal - October 11th, 2025 [October 11th, 2025]
- The Supreme Court Has the Chance to Give Republicans a Big Hand in the Midterms - Hungarian Conservative - October 11th, 2025 [October 11th, 2025]
- Article | Republicans are in disarray one week into the shutdown - POLITICO Pro - October 11th, 2025 [October 11th, 2025]
- Republicans Pushed Hundreds of Bills This Year to Curtail Local Governments - EXPOSEDbyCMD - October 11th, 2025 [October 11th, 2025]
- Tensions Heighten Between Texas GOP Executive Committee and House Republicans Ahead of Censure Vote - The Texan - October 11th, 2025 [October 11th, 2025]
- Two Republicans vote with Dems as Senate GOP spikes bid to block Trump's strikes on drug-smuggling boats - Fox News - October 11th, 2025 [October 11th, 2025]
- Republicans think theyre winning the messaging war even as polls show theyre losing - MSNBC News - October 9th, 2025 [October 9th, 2025]
- Ranking Members Raskin, Swalwell Statement on Senate Republicans Misdirected Outrage Regarding DOJs Investigation of the Criminal Conspiracy to... - October 9th, 2025 [October 9th, 2025]
- Senate Republicans vote against check on Trump using deadly force against cartels - The Guardian - October 9th, 2025 [October 9th, 2025]
- Vance heads to Indiana after Republicans warn White House of stalled redistricting push - Politico - October 9th, 2025 [October 9th, 2025]
- Hoyer: Americans Are Still Waiting on Republicans to Govern - Congressman Steny Hoyer (.gov) - October 9th, 2025 [October 9th, 2025]
- REPUBLICAN SHUTDOWN DAY 8: Senator Murray Joins Washingtonians Who Rely on ACA Tax Credits to Call on Republicans to Prevent Premiums from Doubling... - October 9th, 2025 [October 9th, 2025]
- With Republicans out of town, House Democrats are everywhere and nowhere - Roll Call - October 9th, 2025 [October 9th, 2025]
- Republicans Block Senate Democrats Bid to Stop Trumps Caribbean Boat Strikes - NOTUS News of the United States - October 9th, 2025 [October 9th, 2025]
- The real reason Mike Johnson is keeping Republicans away from D.C. during the shutdown - MSNBC News - October 9th, 2025 [October 9th, 2025]
- Representative Derek Tran Calls on House Republicans to Get Back to Work to Pay U.S. Troops - Fullerton Observer - October 9th, 2025 [October 9th, 2025]
- E&E News: Where are the climate Republicans? - POLITICO Pro - October 9th, 2025 [October 9th, 2025]
- Gillibrand Trump, Republicans have created manufactured healthcare affordability crisis - Mid Hudson News - October 9th, 2025 [October 9th, 2025]
- Republicans: The Trump show wont sell in Minnesota - Minnesota Reformer - October 9th, 2025 [October 9th, 2025]
- Press Release: Senate Republicans Block Legislation by Tim Kaine and Martin Heinrich to Repeal Trump's Energy Policies - Quiver Quantitative - October 9th, 2025 [October 9th, 2025]
- These Bay Area residents left the Democratic Party. Heres why theyre joining Republicans - San Francisco Chronicle - October 9th, 2025 [October 9th, 2025]
- Utah Republicans are reimagining what it looks like to tackle poverty - Deseret News - October 9th, 2025 [October 9th, 2025]
- Trump says he can pick and choose which feds get back pay. Republicans in Congress mostly disagree - Government Executive - October 9th, 2025 [October 9th, 2025]
- Katie Porter went viral for the wrong reasons after a video of her exchange with a local TV journalist became a must-see clip for the political set.... - October 9th, 2025 [October 9th, 2025]
- The lone US House Democrat to vote with Republicans on the funding bill draws a primary challenge - CNN - October 7th, 2025 [October 7th, 2025]
- Republicans are holding Americans' health care hostage and lying about it - MSNBC News - October 7th, 2025 [October 7th, 2025]
- Government shutdown enters sixth day as Republicans, Speaker Johnson says it's up to Democrats to 'stop the madness' - ABC7 Los Angeles - October 7th, 2025 [October 7th, 2025]
- Trump joins other Republicans in calling for Jay Jones to exit Virginia race - The Washington Post - October 7th, 2025 [October 7th, 2025]
- Trump wants to get rid of mail voting. Pa. Republicans are urging voters to use it. | News, Sports, Jobs - The Express - lockhaven.com - October 7th, 2025 [October 7th, 2025]
- Shelby Co. Republicans say Memphis Safe Task Force restoring law and order as Week 2 begins - Action News 5 - October 7th, 2025 [October 7th, 2025]
- Trump wants to get rid of mail voting. Pa. Republicans are urging voters to use it. - Spotlight PA - October 7th, 2025 [October 7th, 2025]
- House Republicans Cheer On Pain and Suffering as Their Shutdown Drags On - Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee - October 7th, 2025 [October 7th, 2025]
- McFeely: When it comes to failing farm economy, Republicans in ND, SD and Minnesota in a pickle - InForum - October 7th, 2025 [October 7th, 2025]
- Republicans and Democrats Neck-and-Neck in Tennessee's 7Th District Early Voting - State Affairs - October 7th, 2025 [October 7th, 2025]
- Column | Republicans threaten return to Musks chainsaw strategy to government - The Washington Post - October 4th, 2025 [October 4th, 2025]
- Republicans Have a Senate Map Without the Meltdowns - Politico - October 4th, 2025 [October 4th, 2025]
- Democrats and Republicans dig in on the shutdown - MSNBC News - October 4th, 2025 [October 4th, 2025]
- Pelosi on Republican Health Care Crisis: "Trump and Republicans are Inflicting a Painful Shutdown on the American People." - Representative... - October 4th, 2025 [October 4th, 2025]
- Mike Johnson: Republicans have nothing to negotiate on shutdown - Politico - October 4th, 2025 [October 4th, 2025]
- Long Island Republicans criticized for filing lawsuit to keep missing Democratic candidate's name on ballot - CBS News - October 4th, 2025 [October 4th, 2025]
- Back in Maine, Pingree Stresses Local Impact of Republicans Failure to Protect Health Care, Keep the Government Open - Chellie Pingree (.gov) - October 4th, 2025 [October 4th, 2025]
- Long Island Republicans criticized for filing lawsuit to keep missing Democratic candidates name on ballot - Election Law Blog - October 4th, 2025 [October 4th, 2025]
- Republicans are relishing a role reversal in the shutdown fight. Can Trump keep them united? - AP News - October 4th, 2025 [October 4th, 2025]
- 'What are Republicans so afraid of?': Grijalva says swearing-in delayed a week by GOP 'playing games' - Tucson Sentinel - October 4th, 2025 [October 4th, 2025]
- The NFL spent more helping Democrats than Republicans in the last 4 elections - Deseret News - October 4th, 2025 [October 4th, 2025]
- LEADER JEFFRIES ON GOOD MORNING AMERICA: REPUBLICANS HAVE SHUT THE GOVERNMENT DOWN BECAUSE THEY DONT WANT TO PROVIDE HEALTHCARE TO WORKING-CLASS... - October 2nd, 2025 [October 2nd, 2025]
- Governor Hochul Rallies With New Yorkers to Call Out Trump and Washington Republicans Reckless Government Shutdown - Governor Kathy Hochul (.gov) - October 2nd, 2025 [October 2nd, 2025]
- These Democratic senators voted with Republicans on government funding bill - ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos - October 2nd, 2025 [October 2nd, 2025]
- LEADER JEFFRIES ON CNN: THE REPUBLICANS KNOW THEYRE LYINGABOUT THIS ISSUE - Congressman Hakeem Jeffries (.gov) - October 2nd, 2025 [October 2nd, 2025]
- House Republicans wade into legal fight over California EV rules - E&E News by POLITICO - October 2nd, 2025 [October 2nd, 2025]
- Republicans Demand Information From the College Board and Firms That Help Set College Prices - The New York Times - October 2nd, 2025 [October 2nd, 2025]
- NM congressional delegation say Republicans could have avoided shutdown if they had wanted to - Source New Mexico - October 2nd, 2025 [October 2nd, 2025]
- Pressley Slams Republicans for Shutting Down Government, Creating Healthcare Crisis - House.gov - October 2nd, 2025 [October 2nd, 2025]
- Why did John Fetterman vote with Republicans to reopen the government? - Inquirer.com - October 2nd, 2025 [October 2nd, 2025]
- REP LIEU SLAMS TRUMP SHUTDOWN, CALLS ON REPUBLICANS TO SAVE HEALTHCARE - Congressman Ted Lieu (.gov) - October 2nd, 2025 [October 2nd, 2025]
- Whip Clark on MSNBC: Democrats Are Here, Republicans Are Nowhere To Be Found - Katherine Clark Democratic Whip | (.gov) - October 2nd, 2025 [October 2nd, 2025]