Mediaboss Marketing

A simple dollars-to-dollars comparison likely understates the hole some Republican candidates find themselves in. Generally, candidates can buy television ads at a cheaper rate than outside groups so a dollar from a candidate effectively buys more eyeballs than a dollar from an ad buy backed by a super PAC or a national party committee.

I heard a rumor that campaigns need money to run ads. I dont know if that rumor is true, but if it is then we have the reason why Kari Lake isnt up on TV, said Barrett Marson, an Arizona Republican operative who worked for a super PAC supporting one of Lakes primary opponents and who has been critical of the electability of the statewide GOP ticket.

There has been a dearth of advertising on the Republican side of this race, Marson continued. About the only message TV viewers really get of Kari Lake is her own earned media interviews, which often are not positive.

Lake herself has downplayed the importance of ads as a cornerstone of a successful campaign. She told POLITICO in a recent interview that she was not a huge believer in running TV ads, cutting them off at the end of a contentious primary in which her opponent was outspending her 17-to-1 and then winning the nomination anyway.

I think Im a unique candidate in that I didnt need to run as much advertising to let people know who I am, because they already knew who I was, Lake said in the interview.

She has, however, gotten significant air cover in the state from the RGA for the final weeks of the election, which Marson notes could be a difference maker in a close campaign. The RGA has also sidestepped dealing with the state party, routing millions of dollars worth of spending through the Yuma County Republican Party. That allows the county party to coordinate with the Lake campaign and critically, get a lower ad rate.

While theres a big gap in spending in Arizona, theres little separating Lake and Democratic gubernatorial nominee Katie Hobbs in public polling. Polling averages show them separated by less than a point, and POLITICO forecasts the race as a tossup.

The same, however, can not be said for Mastriano in Pennsylvania, where Democrat Josh Shapiro has clobbered him on the airwaves for months largely without a response, as Shapiro ran up a fairly comfortable lead in recent polls.

Pennsylvania Republican gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano stands after concluding his speech during a campaign stop in Erie, Pa. on Sept. 29, 2022.|David Dermer/AP Photo

Mastriano has largely been abandoned by national Republicans his campaign adviser even tried to pick a fight with the RGA for not backing him and an in-state group that was running ads attacking Shapiro apparently cut bait in September.

Mastriano, did, however, launch his first TV ad of the general election last week, in what his campaign called a million-dollar buy skipping most of the far-right talking points he regularly espouses on the trail or in interviews and instead focusing on his military service.

Still, hes being dramatically outspent, in no small part due to Shapiros significant fundraising advantage.

Mastriano didnt have to run a lot of TV in the primary, and Josh Shapiro has had more than $20 million [on air] and Mastriano has had nothing, said Chris Nicholas, a veteran GOP consultant in the state. Through the end of the election, Shapiros total is expected to be even higher: at least $35 million since he launched his campaign.

Even so, Nicholas noted that a spending gap of that size normally means a race is over but that was not the case this year. For Mastriano, running TV ads no matter when you start to do it is a positive, even if it is belated, he said.

Dixon, the Michigan gubernatorial candidate, is also not on television herself, and she has been trailing significantly in recent polls. Instead, her campaign has largely relied on an allied super PAC called Michigan Families United, which was the only Republican entity on air for the month of September.

She has relied on the group to a heavy degree, both in the primary and in the general election. Dixons site at one point contained an unusually extensive memo, which was shared with POLITICO, entitled television, radio, and digital advertising. It laid out specific ad themes that would be helpful for the campaign. Her website also currently links to a Google Drive folder that has over an hour of b-roll footage, which is useful for outside ad makers.

Read more:
Republicans are chasing key governorships. There's one big thing missing. - POLITICO