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Dwight Weidman| Guest columnist

Mastriano wins Pennsylvania GOP governor race

State Sen. Doug Mastriano won the Republican nomination for Pennsylvanias open governors office on Tuesday. (May 17)

AP

Most voters dont pay much attention to elections until after Labor Day, so it might be premature to make any forecasts regarding the upcoming November general election. Keeping that in mind, the early signs arent good for our two main Republican standard bearers, U.S. Senate candidate Dr. Mehmet Oz and candidate for governor Doug Mastriano.

With the Joe Biden albatross hanging around the necks of Democrat candidates, both the Pennsylvania governorship and the seat in the U.S. Senate should easily be classified as leaning Republican, but Pennsylvania Republicans, with their unique inability to get out of their own way, are now facing two races that are rated by most polling services as toss-up or leaning Democrat. How did we get here? More importantly, can the GOP turn things around?

Lets take a look at each of the two big races. Well start with the contest to replace U.S. Sen. Pat Toomey, who is retiring.

The Senate race is a textbook example of how not to win in Pennsylvania, or anywhere else. The Republican nominee, Dr. Mehmet Oz, might be great at selling miracle cures, but he has been a disaster from day one as a candidate. He has built-in disadvantages such as basically being a resident of New Jersey and a dual citizen of Turkey, in a state where nativist instincts are strong. His past pronouncements, backed by a wealth of video evidence, have shown him as liberal on many issues. His recent statement that he would vote for the Democrat Respect for Marriage Act, which would codify same-sex marriage, only confirmed conservative fears that Oz isnt one of them.

The biggest problem with the Oz candidacy is the turmoil that it caused right before the primary election. In a questionable decision, former President Trump had endorsed Oz, partially because of urging from people such as the most annoying man on television, Sean Hannity, and when Oz started underperforming in the primary polls, Hannity, and his fellow-polemicist on Newsmax, Greg Kelly, conducted a smear campaign against conservative Oz opponent Kathy Barnette, who was surging in the race. To this day, Barnette has not come out in support of Oz, and many of her conservative supporters are still sitting on the sidelines.

Trumps endorsement of Oz and the subsequent negative attacks on his opponents might have put the good doctor barely over-the-top in the primary, as many uninformed Trump supporters pulled the lever for him, but they also created division in the Republican ranks that has resulted in low enthusiasm, poor fundraising and polls that put the New Jersey doctor anywhere from 6 to 11 points behind a very beatable Democrat, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman.

The campaign for Pennsylvania governor started with a lot of promise, at least in early polls, showing Republican state Sen. Doug Mastriano and Democrat Attorney General Josh Shapiro in a statistical tie, but a new poll shows Mastriano slipping to a deficit of 10 points (Fox News, July 22-26). Even worse for Mastriano, the Fox News poll and some other surveys show Josh Shapiro at or near the magic number of 50%.

This race is another case of Republicans shooting themselves in the foot during the primary process. The hands-off approach by the state GOP led to a scramble by nine candidates, most of whom had zero chance of winning. This split the mainstream conservative vote allowing Mastriano, who many view as too far-right, to win with 43.8%. Mastrianos final primary tally was padded by a last-minute endorsement from Donald Trump, to claim another endorsement win. This also led many to question Trumps loyalty as he failed to support and endorse eventual second-place candidate Lou Barletta, who was one of the first major Pennsylvania figures to support Trump in 2016.

Mastriano, despite having a large grassroots following, lacks fundraising capability. His pre-primary disdain for his fellow Republicans and refusal to pledge loyalty to the partys nominee if it wasnt him isnt translating well to his pleas for unity now. He also lacks an experienced and capable staff, which will inevitably lead to many mistakes along the way. Weve already seen one major error in his campaign finance reporting earlier this year, and he recently and abruptly dropped his association with the social platform GAB after paying it $5,000 for advertising. Jewish groups have criticized Mastriano over his association with Gab CEO Andrew Torba, who supposedly has made anti-Semitic comments. Erratic, knee-jerk moves like this arent the hallmark of a competent campaign.

Anything can happen in the next three months, but current trends arent looking good for Republicans here. Unless these trends are halted and reversed by mid-September, it could be all over in Pennsylvania.

Dwight Weidman is a resident of Greene Township and is a graduate of Shepherd University. He is retired from the United States Department of Defense, where his career included assignments In Europe, Asia and Central America. He has been in leadership roles for the Republican Party in two states, most recently serving two terms as Chairman of the Franklin County Republican Party. Involved in web publishing since 1996, he is the publisher of The Franklin County Journal. He has been an Amateur Radio Operator since 1988, getting his first license in Germany, and is a past volunteer with both Navy and Army MARS, Military Auxiliary Radio Service, and is also an NRA-certified firearms instructor.

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Pennsylvania Republican candidates might be in trouble this November - Public Opinion