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Arizona candidates for Senate: Republican Sen. Martha McSally (left) and Democrat Mark Kelly.(Photo: The Republic, Arizona Daily Star)

From the Republican uh-oh department: Arizona Sen. Martha McSally is sliding in the polls, dropping four percentage points in a month.

McSally now trails Democrat Mark Kelly by 13 points, according to the latest tracking poll by OH Predictive Insights.

While the April poll of 600 likely voters favored Kelly 51% to McSallys 42%, in May its now 51%-38%.

The poll shows independents breaking more than 2-1 for Kelly.

McSally is doing terribly, pollster Mike Noble told me on Monday. Theres no way to find a bright spot on that one.

And thats not even the bad news for McSally.

The bad news comes from Maricopa County, where Republicans rule.

At least, they did rule, until Democrat Kyrsten Sinema defeated McSally there in 2018 -- stealing 88 mostly-suburban precincts that normally would go to the Republican nominee.

Arizona Sen. Martha McSally has lost ground to Democrat Mark Kelly, according to the latest tracking poll from OH Predictive Insights.(Photo: OH Predictive Insights)

McSally's declining supportlies within the 4 percent margin of error inthe May tracking poll, a blend of live and automated calls made betweenMay 9 to May 11.Buther Maricopa County numbers are a disaster.

In May 2019, this same tracking poll showed Kelly up over McSally, 46%-41%, among likely voters in Maricopa County.

In May 2020, Kelly has climbed to 54% in Maricopa County while McSally has dropped to 36%.

Just think about that for a moment. Kelly has gone from a five-point advantage in Maricopa County to an 18-point cruise.

Polling shows Arizona Sen. Martha McSally is getting killed in the one place she must win.(Photo: OH Predictive Insights)

Thats a stunnerwhen you consider that Maricopa County in recent years always hasgonefor Republicans (well, except for now-ex-state Superintendent Diane Douglas and McSally).

Morestunning still: the fact that the state's most populous countyis the one place that McSally must win if she wants to hang onto that Senate seat yet she has done nothing to appeal to the independents and moderate Republican voters who likely will decide this race.

"Maricopa County is the key for Republicans winning," Noble said. "It'sthekey to Trumps re-election but its also key for the Senate seat. Maricopa County is where the battle is at and right now its not going well for McSally."

Ive never understood McSallys strategy why she decided to become a Donald Trump pocket pal when it was obvious she lost in 2018 because she campaignedas a Donald Trump pocket pal.

Now shes facing a campaign thatwill be solely a referendum on Trump.

Whose approval rating, by the way, now stands at 45% in Arizona, according to the poll.

Of course, the four-point drop in McSallys numbers over the last month could be attributable to the campaign ads that are pummeling her.

The Lincoln Project, an anti-Trump conservative super PAC run in part by George Conway, began running attack ads against McSally two days before this poll went into the field. Democratic groups have been beating her up on the airwaves since last fall.

Republicans, meanwhile, have beenmostly silent on the campaign front. The Senate Leadership Fund, run by allies of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, plansto spend $9.2 million to try to boost McSally but not until the fall.

Meanwhile, the National Republican Senatorial Committee, faced with possible loss of the Senate, recently pushed the panic button,announcingplans tomove ahead in June with a $5.7 million ad campaign to try to save the appointed senator who nowtrails by double digits.

Me? I'm wondering what took them so long.

Reach Roberts at laurie.roberts@arizonarepublic.com.

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New poll shows Sen. Martha McSally losing ground to Mark Kelly and that's not even the bad news - AZCentral