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Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnel (R-Ky.) announced the passage of the vote to proceed to debate on the GOP's health-care bill on July 25 as "the first step" toward repealing Obamacare. (The Washington Post)

When House Republicans tried to pass an Obamacare replacement plan back in March, it failed thanks to the resistance of the far-right House Freedom Caucus. Two months later, Speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.) made a different bet: If you satisfy the right, enough moderates will cave to pull the bill across the finish line. That gamble paid off, with the measure passing 217-213. Now Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) is making a similar wager on Senate Republicans spinelessness. Unfortunately, so far it seems to be working, with McConnell pulling together 50 votes to move forward on repealing Obamacare.

During McConnells doomed initial push for an Obamacare replacement, the GOP leader was trappedbetween skeptics on both ends of the caucus. The right, includingSens. Rand Paul (Ky.), Ted Cruz (Tex.) and Mike Lee (Utah), wanted to rip up Obamacare root and branch. The moderates, including Sens. Shelley Moore Capito (W.Va.), Rob Portman (Ohio) and Dean Heller (Nev.), opposed steep cuts to Medicaid and opioid addiction treatment.

With the resurrection of Obamacare replacement, GOP leaders had to decide what the latest version of the bill would look like. Because they opted to forgo a Congressional Budget Office score, this version would need 60 votes. Since that would be impossible to reach, this version would bemore of a symbolic gesture. But itwould set the terms for the intra-party debate the rest of the week as GOP leaders hashed out a final iterationbehind closed doors. On Saturday, conservatives got a commitment to include Cruz and Lees amendment to allow insurance companies to sell plans that dont comply with Obamacares mandate. (That would send the exchanges into a death spiral, but never you mind.) Paul also gotwhat he wanted: a vote on a clean repeal of Obamacare.

What did the moderates get for their votes to proceed? A Portman amendment to the billrestoringa small portion of the Medicaid cutsto go with previously added andsimilarly pitiful funding to treat opioid addicts. Both were token gestures, yet Portman voted yes. A month ago, Heller said he would not vote forthe billbecause of its steep Medicaid cuts. The cuts remained largely intact, yet Heller voted yes. A week ago, Capito said she would vote for the bill only if there was a replacement plan that addresses my concerns. No one knows whether there will be such a plan, yet Capito voted yes. (Heller, Capito and their defenders will say that its just a procedural vote to begin debate, not on the bill itself. But Heller and Capito both specifically said they would vote no on that motion.)

Worse, simply by voting for the motion to proceed, the moderates have undercut their influence. McConnells new strategy heavily depends on the fallback option of skinny repeal a bare-bones repeal of the mandate and a few other features of Obamacare. The bill would then go to a House-Senate conference committee, where it would be completely rewritten, and then it would go back to the Senate for an up-or-down vote. Make no mistake: The House Freedom Caucus and Senate conservatives will have far more influence over that committee than moderates in either chamber. And then the moderates would be told to vote for a bill that they didnt like and barely influenced, for the good of the party.

Sen. Richard Burr (N.C.), a GOP stalwart, was rightly ridiculed on Monday for saying, Ill vote for anything. But at least he was being honest. Again and again, weve seen GOP moderates go through the motions of being deeply concerned about an Obamacare alternative or a controversial nominee or the latest development in the Russia scandal then vote with the party anyway as though nothing has happened. Soonthey will be faced with a finalbill, one that willriphealth insurance away from millions. The question is whether they will cave yet again. Those that choose cowardice may hope that voters wont judge them, but history will not be so kind.

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McConnell's wager on Republicans' spinelessness appears to be paying off - Washington Post