Mediaboss Marketing

Its the predominant paradox of contemporary American politics: If Republicans prevail in this years midterm congressional elections, it will be because of their partys sharp-edged stances on topics like abortion and Benghazi, Obamacare and immigration, gay marriage and the minimum wage issues that energize the GOPs core base of support.

But if Republicans lose the race for the White House in 2016, it will be because of their partys polarizing, out-of-step stances on those very same issues, which alienate much of the broader electorate the GOP needs to win a national contest in a country whose demographics and political realities are shifting under its feet.

Establishment Republicans had a good night in Tuesdays round of primaries, but they did so in part by adopting positions at odds with the long-term need to broaden the partys support and move away from litmus-test issues. A wide range of Republicans see the party courting the same disaster it did in 2012, playing a base game that will keep it shut out of the White House.

(Also on POLITICO: Georgia Senate runoff: Nasty, brutish and long)

The Republican Party has essentially now two wings: a congressional wing and the national wing, the veteran GOP pollster Bill McInturff said at a recent Pew Research Center forum on so-called millennial voters, those from 18 to 29 years of age. The congressional wing is thriving, especially in the South, in districts that are 75 percent, or even 80 percent, white, and where every incumbents worst fear is a challenge from the right.

But McInturff summed up the national partys prospects with an old line from Mr. T in Rocky III: Prediction? Pain! He said the partys genetic instinct is that younger voters dont vote, and too many Republicans dont understand the coming demographic wave. Why am I a Republican? he asked. I believe in the power of markets. The marketplace is, you will lose keep losing national elections until you keep up.

The Republicans have faced this problem before, most recently in the 2012 presidential contest. A prolonged GOP primary in which contenders sought to prove their conservative bona fides and a subsequent airing of nominee Mitt Romneys 47 percent comments left the party vulnerable to Democratic attacks. But the ideological divide within the Republican Party, and between its most conservative wing and the wider electorate, is sharper and starker than ever.

(Also on POLITICO: Payback: GOP incumbents learn how to win)

Republican House members seeking reelection may well benefit from their lockstep opposition to raising the minimum wage this year. But three past and future presidential contenders Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty and Rick Santorum recently called that a losing proposition in the longer term. Republicans may benefit from near-term tail winds this fall, as Pawlenty put it, but the demographic reality is that diverse voters have a diminishing view of Republicans and that needs to be addressed.

Sens. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), under challenge from the tea party wing in safely Republican states, may help themselves this year with their support for a bill to ban abortions after 20 weeks. But the hangover from their partys identification with such a position may well produce a backlash in battleground presidential states two years from now.

Visit link:
How Republicans lose by winning