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I surveyed half a dozen Democrats since the vote, asking how important this would be for these Republicans and which of them was the most vulnerable. The strategists I talked with, many of them specialists on House campaigns or alumni of the Democrats congressional campaign arm, were hesitant to pick just one or two of these races as standouts. Instead, most agreed that any of these Republicans, from California or New York especially, were on notice. That would be John Duarte (Californias 13th district), Valadao, Mike Garcia (Californias 27th), Young Kim (Californias 40th), Michelle Steele (Californias 45th), Nick LaLota (New Yorks 1st district), George Santos (New Yorks 3rd, who of course has a whole other set of problems), DEsposito, Lawler, Brandon Williams (New Yorks 22nd), and Marc Molinaro (New Yorks 19th). If one were to simply go by Bidens margin of victory in these 18 districts, youd add Lori Chavez-DeRemer of Oregon to that list. Biden won her 5th district by nearly double digits.

Trying to defend this bill in swing districts is nearly impossible for these Republican incumbents, said Democratic strategist Jesse Ferguson. Theyve positioned themselves as both pro-default and against the middle class at the same time. Its quite a feat. Theres a story for Democrats to tell about how Republicans refused to pass a bill that would just avoid default and instead passed a bill that gutted the middle class.

Democrats had already been hammering these Biden-district Republicans on aspects of the cuts in the debt limit proposal. The Democratic-aligned advocacy group House Majority Forward has run TV ads hitting Republicans for being prepared to let America default. Democratic campaign committees, allied super PACs as well as outside consultants and strategists, expect these attacks to continue. And Democrats have polling to show they are effective. According to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted for House Majority Forward, 60 percent of those surveyed strongly disapprove when asked their opinion of the cuts.

Link:
How 18 Republicans Just Made Democratic Recapture of the House ... - The New Republic