Electability is all Democrats discussed in 2020. In 2024, Republicans don’t care – NPR
Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump speaks at a primary election night party after his win in the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday. Matt Rourke/AP hide caption
Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump speaks at a primary election night party after his win in the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday.
Nikki Haley is continuing to lean hard into one particular argument in her stump speech: electability.
"Republicans have lost the last seven out of eight popular votes for president. That's nothing to be proud of," the former U.N. ambassador has told crowds in Iowa, New Hampshire and now South Carolina, before boasting of a December Wall Street Journal poll that found her 17 points ahead of Joe Biden in a head-to-head matchup.
The argument failed in the first two voting contests, now that Haley has lost to Trump by more than 30 points in Iowa and, a smaller margin, but still double-digits in New Hampshire.
Moreover, polls show that voters just don't care that much about electability. Entrance polls showed that only 14% of Iowa GOP caucusgoers said a candidate's ability to defeat Biden was their top factor in choosing. Meanwhile, 41% chose someone who "shared their values."
Similarly, in New Hampshire exit polls, the same percentage of Republican primary voters, 14%, ranked the ability to defeat Joe Biden as their top priority. Choosing a candidate who "fights for people like me" garnered the top choice of 31% of those voters, while shared values was most important to another 30%.
All of this might surprise anyone who paid attention to the last presidential election. In 2020, Democratic voters badly wanted Trump out of office and were therefore obsessed with nominating a presidential candidate who was electable someone who could defeat Trump.
This year, Republican voters also badly want to defeat Joe Biden, but many say electability isn't a big factor for them. And the reasons for that are complicated.
Concerns about electability vary greatly by election. For example, voters who want to move on from a two-term presidency in the opposing party as with Democrats in 2008 might about something other than electability (in the case of 2008 Democrats, that something was "change").
Similarly, voting a sitting president out of office can raise the salience of electability. In 2012, when Republicans were eager to vote Obama out of office, a plurality of both Iowa Republican caucusgoers and New Hampshire Republican primary voters said electability was their top concern.
Still, the parties generally have different attitudes toward electability, says Matt Grossmann, a political scientist at Michigan State University.
"Republicans do not perceive a tradeoff between rallying the base and winning a general election, whereas Democrats do perceive that tradeoff," he said.
One possible reason why, Grossmann said, is that Republicans correctly perceive America's conservative bent more Americans consider themselves conservative than liberal.
But Grossmann adds that the cause and effect of electability is complicated.
"The candidate that you support influences who you think is electable. So most people will choose their candidate and then say that candidate is more electable."
Similarly, a candidate who works hard to bill themselves as electable will attract voters who care about that quality.
Republican presidential candidate former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley speaks at a New Hampshire primary night rally, in Concord, N.H., on Tuesday. Steven Senne/AP hide caption
Republican presidential candidate former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley speaks at a New Hampshire primary night rally, in Concord, N.H., on Tuesday.
Barbara Grieb is one of those voters. She went to see Haley last week in Rochester, N.H.
"I think that even Democrats, women Democrats, are ready for a woman in the White House," she said. She added: "A win is important. And I think that's why I am eliminating President Trump because. I just don't think he's got the likability, obviously, from Democrats."
One complicating factor this year is that many Republicans see Joe Biden as a particularly weak candidate, so they don't need to worry about electability.
It is true that Biden is unpopular his net approval is at around negative 16 points. But he's not at all sure to lose.
Many head-to-head polls show Trump and Biden about even with each other, or Trump with a slight advantage. Head-to-head polls between Haley and Biden also don't show either with a clear lead.
Which reveals another important point: neither Haley nor Trump appears to have a clear electability advantage right now.
Trump introduces two potential other confounding factors to the electability equation this year. One is that as the last Republican president, he's essentially running as a Republican incumbent.
And along with that, he brings his feverishly devoted followers. And even if some of them briefly glanced at other candidates, many came home to Trump in the end. Peggy Hutchison is one she went to a Trump rally the day before the Iowa caucuses in bitterly cold weather. She was wearing a Trump t-shirt more specifically, a shirt emblazoned with the Punisher logo wearing Trump's distinctive yellow coif. She said she had been to eight Trump rallies. And also...
"I was at January sixth also. But I didn't go in [to the Capitol]. I was there," she said.
"I left when I could tell it was getting out of hand," she added with a laugh.
Hutchison had gone to events for two other Republican candidates Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy. But she explained why she decided on Trump.
"His platform," she said. "I haven't heard anything that he stands for that I don't stand for."
I asked her specifically about electability. She said that while she thinks Trump will defeat Biden, that didn't play into her decision at all. She simply has liked Trump since 2015.
In addition, Trump's lie that he won the 2020 election also plays into how Trump voters think about electability this year. Pat McGee went out to see Trump in Portsmouth. Why did she plan to vote for him?
"He knows what to do and he knows who to do it to," she said. "He knows which people to trust and which people are RINOs which people to pick that would be in his cabinet and support."
I asked her: is she confident that if he's the nominee, Trump can defeat Biden?
"He will. Yeah," she said.
I pointed out that Trump lost to Biden in 2020. McGee made a skeptical face.
"He didn't lose."
To the degree that Trump voters think he's electable, that perception is fueled by Trump's lie about the 2020 election. Convince voters you've never lost, and you might sound like the most electable candidate around.
Excerpt from:
Electability is all Democrats discussed in 2020. In 2024, Republicans don't care - NPR
- The Republicans who still haven't endorsed Donald Trump - The Economist - May 5th, 2024 [May 5th, 2024]
- 'Incredibly positive': Disability advocates commend Kansas Republicans' effort on waitlists Kansas Reflector - Kansas Reflector - May 5th, 2024 [May 5th, 2024]
- The AZ Senate has repealed the 1864 abortion ban, after 2 Republicans join Dems - Arizona Mirror - May 5th, 2024 [May 5th, 2024]
- Voters could support abortion rights and Republicans in November - NPR - May 5th, 2024 [May 5th, 2024]
- E&C Republicans Open Investigation into Allegations of Political Bias at Taxpayer-Funded NPR, Request Attendance ... - Energy and Commerce Committee - May 5th, 2024 [May 5th, 2024]
- Republicans, concerned about dairy industry, urge calm about H5N1 bird flu - STAT - May 5th, 2024 [May 5th, 2024]
- House Republicans, Seeking Political Edge Amid College Protests, Spotlight Antisemitism - The New York Times - May 5th, 2024 [May 5th, 2024]
- 2024 election poll: Trump vs. Biden and what Republicans and Democrats fear - NPR - May 5th, 2024 [May 5th, 2024]
- Republicans, Democrats, and Donald Trump Agree on One Thing: Marjorie Taylor Greene's Move to Oust Mike ... - Vanity Fair - May 5th, 2024 [May 5th, 2024]
- Kristi Noems dog-killing embodies the cruel phoneyness of todays Republicans - The Guardian - May 5th, 2024 [May 5th, 2024]
- Opinion | Republicans preferred China strategy is reckless and dangerous - The Washington Post - May 5th, 2024 [May 5th, 2024]
- Letter: Are the Democrats more faithful to the Constitution than the Republicans? Let's consider health care to answer ... - Salt Lake Tribune - May 5th, 2024 [May 5th, 2024]
- Republicans Call on NPRs Chief, Katherine Maher, to Testify on Bias - The New York Times - May 5th, 2024 [May 5th, 2024]
- The 8 types of Democrats and Republicans in the House - ABC News - May 5th, 2024 [May 5th, 2024]
- Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene launches her plan to oust Speaker Johnson - The Washington Post - The Washington Post - May 5th, 2024 [May 5th, 2024]
- Tennessee's school voucher debate turns to competitive Republican state House and Senate primaries Tennessee ... - Tennessee Lookout - May 5th, 2024 [May 5th, 2024]
- Roy eyes steamroller agenda if Republicans sweep in November - Roll Call - May 5th, 2024 [May 5th, 2024]
- The Governor of Kansas Vetoed Four Anti-Abortion Measures. Republicans Rammed Them Through Anyway. Mother ... - Mother Jones - May 5th, 2024 [May 5th, 2024]
- House Republicans expand investigations into campus antisemitism - Inside Higher Ed - May 5th, 2024 [May 5th, 2024]
- Bill to Combat Antisemitism on Campuses Prompts Backlash From the Right - The New York Times - May 5th, 2024 [May 5th, 2024]
- House Republicans Are Standing Up Against Antisemitic Mobs That Have Overrun America's Colleges & Universities - GOP.gov - May 5th, 2024 [May 5th, 2024]
- This High-Ranking Republican Supports an Off-the-Wall Solution to Tackle Social Security's $22.4 Trillion Cash Shortfall - The Motley Fool - May 5th, 2024 [May 5th, 2024]
- Trump says Republicans always wanted to leave abortion law to states. That's false. - NBC News - May 5th, 2024 [May 5th, 2024]
- Stapilus: It's not how many Republicans there are, but what kind - Idaho Press - May 5th, 2024 [May 5th, 2024]
- How House Republicans Are Responding To Campus Protests : The NPR Politics Podcast - NPR - May 5th, 2024 [May 5th, 2024]
- Republicans catching up with Democrats on mail-in voting - Washington Times - May 5th, 2024 [May 5th, 2024]
- Campus Protests Over Gaza Open a New Line of Attack for GOP in 2024 Election - The New York Times - May 5th, 2024 [May 5th, 2024]
- After losing three straight times, are Republicans as invested in Vegas House seats? - The Nevada Independent - May 5th, 2024 [May 5th, 2024]
- Congressional Republicans announce resolution to overturn Biden tailpipe rule - The Hill - May 5th, 2024 [May 5th, 2024]
- NC Senate Republicans advance bill forcing law enforcement cooperation with ICE NC Newsline - NC Newsline - May 5th, 2024 [May 5th, 2024]
- Republicans are airing out their inability to govern on 2024 campaign trail - The Washington Post - March 26th, 2024 [March 26th, 2024]
- Rep. Mike Gallagher to resign in April, narrowing House GOP vote margin to 1 - The Washington Post - March 26th, 2024 [March 26th, 2024]
- Some Republicans who supported Nikki Haley are still refusing to back Donald Trump - Firstpost - March 26th, 2024 [March 26th, 2024]
- North Dakota Republicans will caucus on the eve of Super Tuesday. Here is what to expect - The Associated Press - March 4th, 2024 [March 4th, 2024]
- Michigan Republicans chart their path forward after months of disarray - USA TODAY - March 4th, 2024 [March 4th, 2024]
- Analysis | A fifth of Trump supporters think he committed a serious crime - The Washington Post - March 4th, 2024 [March 4th, 2024]
- Opinion | Democracy is imperiled globally. Republicans aren't helping. - The Washington Post - The Washington Post - March 4th, 2024 [March 4th, 2024]
- Murphy: For Donald Trump And The Republicans, The Border Is Just A Moneymaking Grievance Machine That They ... - Senator Chris Murphy - March 4th, 2024 [March 4th, 2024]
- In Georgia, Republicans and Democrats line up to run for office - The Atlanta Journal Constitution - March 4th, 2024 [March 4th, 2024]
- Republicans Who Like Putin - The New York Times - March 4th, 2024 [March 4th, 2024]
- GOP life-at-conception bill scrutinized after Alabama IVF ruling - The Dallas Morning News - March 4th, 2024 [March 4th, 2024]
- Senate Republicans Block Murray and Duckworth Bill to Protect IVF After Flurry of Republican Statements Expressing ... - Senator Patty Murray - March 4th, 2024 [March 4th, 2024]
- Nikki Haley Defeats Trump in 2024 Washington, D.C., GOP Primary - The New York Times - March 4th, 2024 [March 4th, 2024]
- Republicans Nod to Trump's Influence in Race to Succeed McConnell - The New York Times - March 4th, 2024 [March 4th, 2024]
- Haley Is Still Struggling to Deal With Trump's Grip on Their Party - The New York Times - March 4th, 2024 [March 4th, 2024]
- Washington, D.C. Republican Primary Election 2024: Live Results - The New York Times - March 4th, 2024 [March 4th, 2024]
- These two Republicans endorsed in dozens of Texas House races. One put his money where his mouth is. - KUT - March 4th, 2024 [March 4th, 2024]
- The anti-voucher House Republicans spared from Abbotts wrath - The Texas Tribune - March 4th, 2024 [March 4th, 2024]
- Ukraine's troops are rationing ammunition. Yet House Republicans plan to take weeks to mull more aid - The Associated Press - March 4th, 2024 [March 4th, 2024]
- In Texas races, Gov. Abbott targets fellow Republicans who oppose vouchers - The Washington Post - March 4th, 2024 [March 4th, 2024]
- Alaska Republicans head to the polls Tuesday with Trump, Haley and Ramaswamy on the ballot Alaska Beacon - Alaska Beacon - March 4th, 2024 [March 4th, 2024]
- Here's What's in the Bipartisan Spending Bill to Prevent a Partial Shutdown - The New York Times - March 4th, 2024 [March 4th, 2024]
- Trump Ballot Eligibility Ruling Elicits Mixed Reactions Ahead of Super Tuesday - The New York Times - March 4th, 2024 [March 4th, 2024]
- 'Embarrassment': Republicans hit Austin hard during tense hearing over his hospitalization - POLITICO - March 4th, 2024 [March 4th, 2024]
- Republicans want earmarks for their districts but vote against spending bills - The Washington Post - March 4th, 2024 [March 4th, 2024]
- On Israel, Trump Is Even Worse Than Biden - The Intercept - March 4th, 2024 [March 4th, 2024]
- Alabama IVF ruling leaves Republicans stuck between their base and the broader public - The Guardian US - March 4th, 2024 [March 4th, 2024]
- Analysis | Hunter Biden gives House Republicans the rebuttal they didn't want - The Washington Post - March 4th, 2024 [March 4th, 2024]
- Reflecting Congressional divisions over U.S. involvement with Ukraine, Republicans are more reluctant than ... - AP-NORC - March 4th, 2024 [March 4th, 2024]
- Murphy says Republicans want the border to be a mess - The Hill - March 4th, 2024 [March 4th, 2024]
- 2 Republicans vie to take on vulnerable Democrat in November - Spectrum News - March 4th, 2024 [March 4th, 2024]
- Senate Republican Blocks Bill to Protect I.V.F. Treatment - The New York Times - March 4th, 2024 [March 4th, 2024]
- The Idaho Republican Presidential Caucus is Saturday. Here's what to know. Idaho Capital Sun - Idaho Capital Sun - March 4th, 2024 [March 4th, 2024]
- Ignoring Warnings, G.O.P. Trumpeted Now-Discredited Allegation Against Biden - The New York Times - February 27th, 2024 [February 27th, 2024]
- Biden Calls Republicans in Congress 'Worse' Than Strom Thurmond - The New York Times - February 27th, 2024 [February 27th, 2024]
- N.Y. Republicans Pick a Former Police Detective to Challenge Gillibrand - The New York Times - February 27th, 2024 [February 27th, 2024]
- Opinion: MAGA Republicans pushing to impeach President Biden don't seem to notice the egg on their faces - Los Angeles Times - February 27th, 2024 [February 27th, 2024]
- Republicans vote to make it harder to amend Missouri Constitution - The Associated Press - February 27th, 2024 [February 27th, 2024]
- Alabama IVF ruling spurs a GOP reckoning on conception bills - Roll Call - February 27th, 2024 [February 27th, 2024]
- What's in the House Republican Mississippi Medicaid expansion bill? - Mississippi Today - February 27th, 2024 [February 27th, 2024]
- Trump Strengthens Grip on Capitol Hill as He Presses Toward Nomination - The New York Times - January 25th, 2024 [January 25th, 2024]
- Trump Forces Terrified Republicans to Bend the Knee Yet Again - The New Republic - January 25th, 2024 [January 25th, 2024]
- Republicans Roll the Dice on the Border - National Review - January 25th, 2024 [January 25th, 2024]
- House Republicans now have one of the smallest majorities in history - NBC News - January 25th, 2024 [January 25th, 2024]
- Senate Republicans are coming to grips with another Donald Trump nomination - NBC News - January 25th, 2024 [January 25th, 2024]
- In States Where Republicans Banned Abortion With No Exception for Rape, Rape Led to 58979 Pregnancies Post-Roe - Vanity Fair - January 25th, 2024 [January 25th, 2024]
- Why Hochul's budget is a headache for Suozzi - POLITICO - January 25th, 2024 [January 25th, 2024]
- After Early Primary Victories, Republicans in Congress Fall in Line Behind Trump - The New York Times - January 25th, 2024 [January 25th, 2024]
- New Hampshire exit polls: Republicans were just half of voters in their own primary - Reuters - January 25th, 2024 [January 25th, 2024]
- Republicans zero in on a new border the one with Canada - NBC News - January 25th, 2024 [January 25th, 2024]
Tags: