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The explanation we heard most often from strategists on the left, right, and center: Biden is unpopular in ways that are largely unique to him, regularly hitting sub-40 marks in approval ratings. And while Trump is still viewed unfavorably, polling also shows voters increasingly rating his presidency better by comparison.

I think this just speaks to the degree that Biden is a weak general election candidate when relatively uninspiring Democratic candidates are outperforming him so consistently across the board, Patrick Ruffini, a Republican pollster and founding partner of Echelon Insights, told Semafor. All former presidents get better retrospective evaluations when they leave office. We just havent had a chance to test how this would play out when one was a current candidate until now.

One of Bidens biggest weaknesses, according to polling, is the economy. Alyssa Cass, a partner at Slingshot Strategies working on Democratic messaging, told Semafor that voters across the spectrum say their No. 1 issue is costs cost of living, food, housing, and more. The disparity between Trumps polling and Senate Republican candidates, she believes, is because voters associate this key issue with Biden.

Theyre holding Joe Biden responsible for the price pressure they feel every time they go to the grocery store, but arent assigning that same responsibility to their Senate candidate, Cass said. That further makes sense when you have these Senate candidates who are, for the most part, riding on a MAGA platform and putting culture issues front and center. I dont think this is a culture war election. I think this is a how expensive are my groceries election.

Recent polling from Blueprint, overseen by Cass, backs up that theory: Data released on May 16 found young voters are prioritizing kitchen table issues and 52% of those polled trust Trump more than Biden when it comes to lowering prices.

Cook Political Reports recent swing state polling found that not only is Biden seen as inferior to Trump on fighting inflation, but 59% of voters think the president has at least some ability to control prices an expectation that could separate him from down-ballot Democrats who survived a worse economy in the midterms.

Then there are other Biden-specific problems, namely his age 66% of voters said they did not think Biden would finish another term in the same Cook Political Report survey. By a 53%-47% margin, voters also reported being more concerned about Bidens age than Trumps temperament and legal issues, two weaknesses that are more unique to him.

In conversations with Republicans, some also say the race between the two candidates looks different than other partisan contests. Trump has largely focused on playing up his record as president and denigrating Bidens in broad terms, rather than trying to make the race a referendum on policy specifics or ideological purity.

As has been the case for many years, President Trump leads the party and the ticket, and has expanded the Republican coalition to include voters that dont typically vote Republican or vote at all, Danielle Alvarez, an RNC spokeswoman, said.

And finally, some of it may just be simple name recognition. Republican Senate candidates are largely going up against incumbent Democrats this cycle, meaning they may need more time to consolidate right-leaning voters who are still not familiar with their campaign, and may face more resistance from voters who dislike Biden but have voted for their opponents before.

One generalization is that Trump is a much better known entity theres going to be a lot more certainty that people are voting for Trump right now, Natalie Jackson, vice president of GQR Insights & Action and a pollster for Democrats, told Semafor.

See the rest here:
Donald Trump is outrunning other Republicans. What does it mean for November? - Semafor