Analysis: Trump’s Low Poll Numbers Limit Influence Over Unruly Republicans – NBCNews.com
To put it bluntly, 38 percent is not the kind of number that scares a wayward congressman if the chief executive says "follow me or else" essentially
That lack of a powerful, popular leader only heightens the GOP's other problem: The deep differences running through it.
The GOP won in 241 districts in November (there are 237 now after cabinet appointments) and the party needs 216 votes to have a majority. That means they can afford to lose 21 votes. Now consider some of the differences in the House districts that the GOP won.
Trump's feud with his party last week centered on the Freedom Caucus, a group of 32 conservative House members that the president and
So even if Trump is popular in those places, the House members are likely more popular. That doesn't mean they'd be completely safe from Trump's promise to "fight," but it at least suggests they feel pretty comfortable standing up to the president.
In 23 House districts held by Republicans, Hillary Clinton was actually the winning presidential candidate. In another five districts, she lost to Trump by less than 2 points. The representatives in those 28 districts may find it very easy to go against the president they might even see opposing Trump as being in their best interest with the president whose approval rating is mired in the high 30s.
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And at the other end of the spectrum, 42 of those House GOP districts gave Trump 66 percent or more of their vote that's 20 points better than Trump did nationally. Those places are likely going to be pro-Trump even as his numbers slip.
Or look at the House GOP split through the frame of policy. Cuts to
In 24 GOP-won House districts, 20 percent or more of the population gets insurance through Medicaid. But in another 27 House districts, less than 10 percent of the population gets insurance through the program.
It only stands to reason that voters in those districts might have very different ideas about the role the government should play in health care and, perhaps, the role of government aid in a broader sense.
Add it all up and you have a very complicated, diverse coalition without a strong force to hold them together.
Last week, in the wake of the GOP's failure to pass a bill repealing and replacing the Affordable Care Act, some party leaders said that Republicans needed to re-learn how to govern.
"We've been an opposition party for ten years," House Speaker Paul Ryan said in an interview. "We've got to become a proposition, governing party."
That may be true, but considering the fragmented nature of the party and the politically weak power at the top, it will not be easy.
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Analysis: Trump's Low Poll Numbers Limit Influence Over Unruly Republicans - NBCNews.com
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