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Which issues matter most? Share of likely Republican primary voters who said each issue was among the most important to determining their primary vote

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Next, we presented likely Republican primary voters with a list of 20 issues and asked them to pick up to three that would be most important in determining their vote. By far, the two most cited issues were getting inflation or costs under control (49 percent) and controlling immigration (48 percent). That was also the case the last four times we conducted this poll, although in the past, respondents were significantly more likely to pick inflation than immigration. The closing gap could be because inflation is easing while immigration officials are encountering a record number of people attempting to cross the southern border. Meanwhile, issues like limiting abortion and improving election security were not cited by even 10 percent of respondents.

Finally, we also asked about several topics that have recently been in the news. For example, 73 percent of respondents said they were very or somewhat familiar with the U.S. House voting to authorize an impeachment inquiry into Biden, and 83 percent said they were very or somewhat familiar with Colorados and Maines rulings that Trump should be disqualified from the primary ballot (those rulings have both been stayed pending a final decision by the U.S. Supreme Court). Unsurprisingly, 84 percent of likely Republican primary voters felt the efforts to remove Trump from the ballot were politically motivated, while just 21 percent thought they were justified by the law (respondents could say both were true). But they dont think those efforts are going anywhere anyway: Only 24 percent of respondents thought it was very or somewhat likely that those rulings would stay in place. In fact, a plurality (47 percent) of respondents thought these efforts would actually make Trump more likely to win in a general election against Biden only 15 percent thought they would make Trump less likely to win.

We also asked about Haleys recent answer to a voters question about what caused the Civil War. She did not mention slavery but rather cited the role of government and what the rights of the people are. (She later clarified that of course slavery was one of the causes of the war.) Our poll found that more likely Republican primary voters thought slavery was a major cause of the Civil War (68 percent) than thought that the role of the federal government was a major cause (56 percent). Only 7 percent thought slavery was not a cause of the war, while 10 percent thought the role of the federal government wasnt.

However, Haleys response may not hurt her much among voters, simply because they didnt hear about it. (The gaffe came during the week between Christmas and New Years Day when many Americans probably werent paying attention.) In the poll, only 46 percent of respondents said they were very or somewhat familiar with the exchange, while 30 percent said they had not heard of it at all.

See the article here:
Where Do Republican Voters Stand Ahead Of The New Hampshire Primary? - FiveThirtyEight