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The GOPs performance in state elections was the most stunning storyline to come out of the 2014 cycle. Of the 36 gubernatorial elections, the GOP won 24 of them, including pick-ups in deep-blue states like Maryland, Massachusetts, and Illinois. Thirty-two states now have Republican governors. Well-known Republican incumbents like Scott Walker (WI), Rick Scott (FL), and John Kasich (OH), each of which seemed vulnerable earlier this year, rode to decisive victories. Before the election, Republicans controlled 57 of 99 state legislative chambers (Nebraska is unicameral); come January, that number will have grown to 68. Any way you slice it, Democrats were routed in the states.

But what does the decisive Republican victory mean for public spending on higher education? Some on the left are girding themselves for more of what they call state disinvestment in higher educationthe argument that states have steadily slashed funding for public colleges over the past two decades. Others argued that although state coffers have begun to rebound from the recession, Republicans commitment to tax cuts could well siphon tax dollars away from higher education.

If the past is any guide, though, its not a foregone conclusion that Republicans will slash higher education funding, or that Democrats will shower campuses with additional taxpayer dollars. To get a sense of what might be in store, I looked at how changes in state spending per student over the past five years (2009-2013, the most recent years available) tracked with who had political control over the governors mansion and the statehouse. The spending and enrollment data come from the State Higher Education Finance (SHEF) database, released each year (I excluded federal stimulus money from the state funding totals).

I simply divided state spending by the number of full-time equivalent students, adjusted it for inflation using the CPI, and calculated year-over-year changes for the 2009-2013 period. (SHEF uses a number of unique adjustments to compare spending per student across states and over time, but I elected to use the simpler version). I then looked at how those year-over-year changes varied across different political constellations.

A couple of overall patterns to note up front. First, only two states actually increased per-student funding across the 2009-2013 period (Illinois and North Dakota). The rest reduced it, with the median state cutting funding 21 percent during the period. Twenty-nine states reduced funding by 20 percent or more; New Hampshire (which had a Democratic governor) saw the largest decrease (nearly 50 percent). Whether Democrats or Republicans were in charge, the recession took a bite out of higher ed budgets.

Second, in 2012-13, public spending started to tick back up in many states. Thirty-one states increased funding per-student last year, and 10 increased it by five percent or more. Granted, most were starting from a lower baseline, but the majority of states had bottomed out as of last year.

When it comes to politics, the patterns are mixed, at best. Three out of the four states with unified Democratic government (DE, MD, MA) reduced funding by between 12 and 24 percent. One (Illinois) increased funding over the period. Among the nine states with unified Republican control, eight reduced per-student funding by an average of 25 percent, with Arizona, Florida, and Idaho seeing declines of more than 30 percent. North Dakota increased funding 22 percent. In both camps, the majority of states increased funding between 2012 and 2013(six of nine in the R column, and two of the four in the D column).

Among those states with unified control in 2013 only, spending patterns across Democratic and Republican states run counter to conventional wisdom. Of the 23 states with unified Republican government in 2013, 17 saw increases in per-student funding between 2012 and 2013, and the median change across the whole group was a 3.6 percent increase. Of the 15 unified Democratic states in 2013, nine increased funding between 12 and 13, with a median change of just 0.22 percent. States with Republicans in control were somewhat more likely to increase per-student funding.

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What Will The Republican Surge Mean For State Higher Education Budgets?