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Tom MacArthur. Photo: Dominick Reuter/AFP/Getty Images

House Republicans are scared. Last week, Arizona congresswoman Martha McSally warned donors that her political prospects were falling with President Trumps approval numbers. I have an R next to my name and right now, this environment would have me not prevail, McSally said in a leaked recording. After winning her district by 14 points last year, a recent poll found McSally trailing a generic Democrat.

And shes far from the only Republican who sees a big blue wave cresting.

Republicans are growing increasingly worried that they will lose the House of Representatives, Politico wrote in its Playbook Monday morning. The pervasive pessimism comes as there continues to be a dearth of legislative victories, and a toxic political environment that appears to be worsening.

For Politico, the upshot of this pessimism is clear: Republicans will be less willing to take risks as they shift into political survival mode.

But that begs the question: For House Republicans, what constitutes a political risk?

After all, the House GOP was already navigating a toxic political environment in early May. And yet, when the time came to vote on a health-care bill that less than 20 percent of the public supported, self-styled moderate Republicans from competitive districts toed the party line.

At the end of the day, all those town-hall protests and calls to congressional offices did put the fear of 2018 into their hearts. But that fear pushed them further to the right. As the Washington Post reported:

Moderates considered the risk of voting for a bill that condemned thousands of poor people to preventable deaths for the sake of increasing income inequality. Then, they contemplated the risk of bucking their partys leadership, donors, and base for the sake of protecting nonaffluent cancer patients.

And most decided they were much more afraid of doing the latter.

This is important context for Tom MacArthurs weekend visit to Trump National Golf Club in Bedminster. MacArthur represents a New Jersey district whose registered voters are only 2 percent more Republican than Democratic. He was co-chairman of the House GOPs Tuesday Group, a caucus of self-identified moderate Republicans. And yet, when his partys widely despised health-care bill died an untimely death, he decided to spearhead the effort to bring it back to life.

Now, hes counting on the widely despised president and GOP donor class to get him reelected. As Politico reports:

The event was closed to press, but MacArthur campaign strategist Chris Russell said Trumps remarks focused on MacArthurs role in revamping the House GOPs Obamacare replacement bill.[Trump] talked about the health care fight, Russell said. [He was] very complimentary of Tom and his efforts on health care and, moving forward, sees him as a leader in Washington.

MacArthur will be a test case for whether the high turnout rate of elderly white people combined with the deep pockets of right-wing billionaires can insulate House Republicans from public opinion (and/or democratic accountability).

Only 8 percent of Americans want the health-care bill that MacArthur revamped to pass the Senate. Only 38 percent like having Donald Trump as their president.

MacArthur thinks his survival depends on preaching to that small, well-funded choir. Judging by developments in the Senate, many of his fellow GOP moderates think the same.

Rightwing media is encouraging Trump to pull the trigger. And the only people that could punish him for doing so are congressional Republicans.

Keep an eye on what African-American voters and D.C. suburbanites do.

Body-slamming a journalist has worked out pretty well for Greg Gianforte.

But there was some good news for the White House in the decision.

Almost 10,000 commuters will be affected and have been instructed to warn their employers in advance.

Reince Priebus called his job a blessing, while Pence with greatest privilege of my life.

Republican aide, when asked if the public can see the bill, replies, We arent stupid.

The public can tune in at 2:30 p.m. on Tuesday.

His one-year-old centrist party is poised to win an unlikely majority in Frances parliament, bolstering his presidential mandate.

It was technically true we did not have a counter-intelligence file case open on then President-elect Trump. Vindication?

Tom MacArthur represents a swing district in a blue state. But hes still more afraid of losing the conservative base than the center.

A group of enterprising lawyers thinks it might be, whether all roads lead to Russia or not.

They were photographed trudging toward their new home on Sunday evening.

Their attorneys general will argue that the president has violated the Constitutions emoluments clause.

Trump may have helped provoke a dangerous escalation of tensions in the Persian Gulf.

Watching a risky career move unfold in real time.

The president is reportedly worried about large-scale protests against him.

James Comey wasnt the only one receiving unwanted phone calls from the president.

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Vulnerable House Republican Ties Himself to Trump - New York Magazine