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On the evening of July 19, several dozen Republican donors gathered for dinner in a private room at the St. Regis Aspen to hear Nikki Haley deliver a speech. The former South Carolina governor had been invited by the Republican Governors Association, which was holding its typically drama-free summer meeting at the exclusive Rocky Mountain resort. It would be a prime platform for Haley to court 27 red-state governors as she lays the groundwork for a future presidential run. But when Haley took the stage, attendees noticed that Florida governor Ron DeSantis was conspicuously absent. According to an attendee, DeSantis was holding his own fundraiser 20 miles up the road in Basalt, Colorado. Ron was pissed he didnt get asked to speak, the attendee later recalled.

Welcome to the 2024 Republican presidential primary.

At this nascent stage, its common for prospective candidates to compete fiercely for donor dollars and Fox News airtime. But the 2024 contest is playing out like no other in memory. Thats because the race is either entirely wide open or over before it begins. The outcome hinges on the whims, grievances, and obsessions of one Donald J. Trump.

The 45th president retains a psychic grip on the MAGA-fied Republican base more than six months after leaving office despite two impeachments, the horrors of the January 6 Capitol riot, and nearly 350,000 U.S. COVID-19 deaths. In July, Trump dominated the Conservative Political Action Committee straw poll with 70 percent of the vote. (DeSantis came in a distant second, with 21 percent.) Its a metaphysical impossibility that anybody, even a senator named Jesus H. Christ, could beat Trump in a Republican primary if he runs, said Michael Caputo, a veteran of Trumps 2016 campaign who briefly served as spokesman for the Department of Health and Human Services.

The candidates know this. Haley, who served as Trumps U.N. ambassador, told The Associated Press in April that she wouldnt run if Trump did. Others, such as DeSantis, Texas senator Ted Cruz, and former secretary of state Mike Pompeo, tell reporters theyre merely focused on the midterms. But just because candidates wont openly challenge Trump doesnt mean theyre not testing the waters in the event Trump doesnt jump in. If Trump doesnt run, youre going to have 2016 on steroids. There will be 25 to 30 people running for president, a prominent Republican said. Could the field include Tucker Carlson? Sean Hannity? Even congresswoman conspiracist Marjorie Taylor Greene? Anythings possible.

The race is entirely WIDE OPEN or OVER before it begins.

Given Trumps long history of turning will-he-or-wont-he speculation into a media spectacle, theres little chance hell declare his 2024 intentions until after the midterms at the earliest. I think that people will be very happy with my decision, Trump told me when we spoke in mid-August. He was on the phone from his golf club in Bedminster, New Jersey. Removed from office, his mood was relaxed and upbeat. I think MAGA is stronger than its ever been before, he said. Trump particularly relished New York governor Andrew Cuomos resignation, announced two days before. I thought he was a tough guy. Maybe he wasnt, Trump said.

Mostly, though, Trump seemed to enjoy watching his potential 2024 rivals being forced to anticipate his next move. Knowing Trump, hell dangle it right up to the New Hampshire primary filing deadline, a Trump confidant told me. Which means candidates are stuck waiting for Trump to get in or get out while they pretend not to be campaigning even as they knife one another behind the scenes. Its a holding pattern, a frustrated Haley adviser said. Its unlike any previous race.

After Mitt Romney lost to Barack Obama in 2012, the Republican National Committee famously commissioned an autopsy to diagnose the partys problems with voters. The internal review produced a 100-page report that advised candidates to broaden the partys appeal to Hispanics, Blacks, and women. Three years later, that blueprint was blown up when Trump descended his golden escalator and labeled Mexican immigrants rapists. The Republican Party became a cult of personality, said Sally Bradshaw, a former Jeb Bush adviser who coauthored the 2012 RNC autopsy. (Bradshaw quit the GOP in 2016. She now runs an independent bookstore in Tallahassee, Florida.)

Republicans didnt even bother with a self-assessment following Trumps loss to Joe Biden. The reason there wasnt an audit this time is the people left in the party dont care about solving problems, Bradshaw said. If anything, the partys takeaway from 2020 is that the base wants it to become more Trumpian. A Reuters/Ipsos poll in May reported that 61 percent of Republicans agree with Trumps big lie, that Biden stole the election. A Politico poll in June found that 3 in 10 Republicans subscribed to the conspiracy theory that Trump will be reinstated as president.

In July, I called Roger Stone to hear his take on which GOP candidates are best positioned to inherit the MAGA mantle. Stone, after all, was the architect of Trumps political career, which began when Trump flirted with a presidential run in 1988 to promote The Art of the Deal. Its very difficult to fill Trumps shoes in the America First movement, Stone said. It cant be handed off like a baton. Stone also believes the 2024 primary will be the first Republican contest in memory that hasnt been shaped by Fox News. The rise of more strident MAGA outlets like One America News and Newsmax have opened new avenues to connect with the base. I dont think Fox will wield the same influence that they did in the past, Stone said. The most loyal and religious Fox viewers have moved on.

If it were up to Stone, Michael Flynn would be the partys 2024 nominee, which, Stone acknowledges, is highly unlikely. (Both Stone and Flynn received pardons from Trump for felony convictions related to the Mueller investigation.) Of the other potential contenders, Stone is most impressed with DeSantis.

The people left in the party dont care about SOLVING PROBLEMS.

Since being elected Floridas governor in 2018, the 43-year-old former congressman has deftly positioned himself as a mini-Trump. He rebuffed public health guidelines during the nadir of the COVID-19 pandemic and kept Florida virtually free of a statewide lockdown in 2020. In May, he signed a restrictive voting rights bill live on Fox News. And in June, DeSantis dispatched Florida law enforcement agents to Texas to secure [the] southern border. According to one recent conservative poll, DeSantis beat Trump with a 74 percent approval rating. (Trump scored 71 percent.) One former Trump adviser recently texted me a photo of DeSantis merch: a hat that said DeSantis 2024: Make America Florida.

DeSantis has also built a powerful fundraising machine. According to the Miami Herald, his political action committee raised almost $14 million in April, bringing its total haul to about $31.6 million. Hedge fund billionaire Ken Griffin made a $5 million donation. DeSantis is the most valuable player this year. Hes Trump without the negatives, said Scott Reed, the former chief strategist for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

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The Race to Inherit Trumps MAGA Base Is Already OnAnd the Knives Are Out - Vanity Fair