The Fix: Republican House districts are not getting any less white
Cresent Hardy, Republican candidate for Nevada's 4th Congressional District, was targeted by the state's Democratsthis week for saying that he, at first, didn't think the race was winnable because it was "a minority district."
Whether or not the attack hits very hard remains to be seen, but Hardy's candor, exposing the sort of calculus that goes into the decision of whether or not to run and for what office, is interesting. And it raises an interesting question: Can Republicans win in majority-minority districts? The answer, as you might expect, is yes. But it doesn't happen often.
Nevada's 4th District is a relatively new one. As America's population has shifted west, Nevada was the beneficiary of a new Congressional seat following the 2010 Census. The newly created district is, indeed, majority-minority, meaning that its population is more non-white than white. About 46 percent of the district's residents are white; nearly a third are Latino. Hardy is challenging incumbent Rep. Steven Horsford who is African-American, like about 13 percent of his consituents.
Since the 109th Congress, the earliest for which racial data is available by congressional district from the Census Bureau's online database, the number of majority-minority Republican House districts has stayed pretty flat, beneath 10 percent. There was a slight uptick in the 111th Congress -- the Congress following the dominant Democratic performance in 2008, when Democrats ate away at what normally would be Republican areas. That dropped the Democrats' percentage of majority-minority districts, and boosted the Republicans'.
But what's more insightful is how the makeup of each party's districts falls across the spectrum of diversity. Over at Wonkblog, Christopher Ingraham looked closely at the racial composition of the 113th Congress, including how many of the Republican Party's seats fell into various densities of whiteness. We rewound that data back a decade to see how it has changed.
In the 109th Congress, the plurality of Republican seats were in districts that were 80 to 100 percent white. As time passed, and as the country got less white overall, the vast majority of Republican seats moved into the 60 to 100 percent white range. Very few districts are under 60 percent white; nearly none are less than a fifth white. For Democrats, the change has been more dramatic. The number of districts controlled by Democrats that are more than 80 percent white is the lowest of the five quintiles. But it's densely mixed; about as many Democratic seats are between 20 and 40 percent white as are between 60 and 80 percent.
What does this mean for Cresent Hardy? Well, not a lot. But of Nevada's now-four Congressional district, two are majority white and two are majority-minority. The two that are majority-minority are currently represented by Democrats. Republicans do win seats like that, but it doesn't happen often. And it didn't happen in 2012, when Horsford first won election.
Philip Bump writes about politics for The Fix. He previously wrote for The Wire, the news blog of The Atlantic magazine. He has contributed to The Daily Beast, The Atlantic, The Daily, and the Huffington Post. Philip is based in New York City.
View original post here:
The Fix: Republican House districts are not getting any less white
- Q&A: Meet the Republican candidates vying for Colorado Governor - SummitDaily.com - June 12th, 2026 [June 12th, 2026]
- Republican Greg Cunningham on the border, Trump and big money in the N.M. CD2 race - Santa Fe New Mexican - June 12th, 2026 [June 12th, 2026]
- 'I wont vote for Ken Paxton': Former GOP official breaks with party in ad to play during Texas Republican convention - Spectrum News - June 12th, 2026 [June 12th, 2026]
- Times Opinion: This is the Hamilton County budget you get under Republican rule - Chattanooga Times Free Press - June 12th, 2026 [June 12th, 2026]
- Carter supports House Republican passage of life-saving ICE, Border Patrol funding - U.S. Representative Buddy Carter (.gov) - June 12th, 2026 [June 12th, 2026]
- Trump pardons former Republican congressman convicted of insider trading - PBS - June 12th, 2026 [June 12th, 2026]
- Evette and Wilson Advance to Runoff in South Carolina Republican Primary for Governor - The New York Times - June 12th, 2026 [June 12th, 2026]
- In Nevada, Trumps policies are making things tough for Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo - NPR - June 12th, 2026 [June 12th, 2026]
- How the political typology groups feel about the Republican and Democratic parties - Pew Research Center - June 12th, 2026 [June 12th, 2026]
- Beshear slams Louisville Republican for medical cannabis attack: 'I think they think it's masculinity' - WHAS11 - June 12th, 2026 [June 12th, 2026]
- A quick look at the Colorado governor candidates running in this months Democratic, Republican primaries - The Denver Post - June 12th, 2026 [June 12th, 2026]
- These Republican Lawmakers Challenged Abortion Bans. Then They Faced Backlash. - ProPublica - June 12th, 2026 [June 12th, 2026]
- Ousted Republican Heather Hill re-enters governors race as write-in candidate - NBC4 WCMH-TV - June 12th, 2026 [June 12th, 2026]
- 5 Big Moments in the Texas Republican Senate Race - The New York Times - May 27th, 2026 [May 27th, 2026]
- Trump is getting the Republican Party that he wants. But can he win in the midterms? - The Seattle Times - May 27th, 2026 [May 27th, 2026]
- What to expect in the Texas US Senate Republican primary runoff - PBS - May 27th, 2026 [May 27th, 2026]
- Ken Paxton Wins the Senate Republican Primary Runoff in Texas - The New Yorker - May 27th, 2026 [May 27th, 2026]
- MAP: How Bexar County and Texas voted in the U.S. Senate Republican primary runoff - KSAT - May 27th, 2026 [May 27th, 2026]
- 5 Things to Know About Ken Paxton, the Republican Senate Nominee in Texas - The New York Times - May 27th, 2026 [May 27th, 2026]
- Democratic Incumbents Run Against Each Other After Republican Redistricting in Texas - The New York Times - May 27th, 2026 [May 27th, 2026]
- Americas ugliest primary? Texas Republican infighting could hand Senate seat to Democrat - The Guardian - May 27th, 2026 [May 27th, 2026]
- State Republican convention headed for Duluth - Duluth News Tribune - May 27th, 2026 [May 27th, 2026]
- WATCH: Would Republican candidates for SC governor want to appoint judges? Heres what they said. - WIS News 10 - May 27th, 2026 [May 27th, 2026]
- Republican-Appointed Judges Just Gave the Roberts Court a Stunning Rebuke - Mother Jones - May 27th, 2026 [May 27th, 2026]
- WATCH: Republican candidates for SC governor speak on failed redistricting push, loyalty to Trump - WIS News 10 - May 27th, 2026 [May 27th, 2026]
- Republican attorneys general split with House party members over US social media bill - Reuters - May 27th, 2026 [May 27th, 2026]
- Trump is getting the Republican Party that he wants. But can he win in the midterms? - Yahoo - May 27th, 2026 [May 27th, 2026]
- Republican Rep. Mike Flood Jeered at Another Contentious Nebraska Town Hall - News of the United States - NOTUS - May 27th, 2026 [May 27th, 2026]
- Read the DOJ's memo to Republican senators on how Trump's $1.8 billion 'anti-weaponization' fund will work - PBS - May 22nd, 2026 [May 22nd, 2026]
- Trump exerts iron grip on Republican Party with Massie defeated - BBC - May 22nd, 2026 [May 22nd, 2026]
- Blanche thrust into Republican firestorm over $1.8B fund as he seeks to prove his loyalty to Trump - KSAT - May 22nd, 2026 [May 22nd, 2026]
- Blanche at center of Republican firestorm over $1.8B fund as he seeks to prove his loyalty to Trump - Inquirer.com - May 22nd, 2026 [May 22nd, 2026]
- Congress delays vote on Republican-backed ICE funding after GOP infighting - KUOW - May 22nd, 2026 [May 22nd, 2026]
- Tommy Tuberville wins Republican nomination for Alabama governor - ESPN - May 22nd, 2026 [May 22nd, 2026]
- Greg Dolezal and John F. Kennedy advanced from the May 19 Republican primary for lieutenant governor of Georgia to the June 16 primary runoff -... - May 22nd, 2026 [May 22nd, 2026]
- Republican announces write-in campaign for seat held by late Rep. Liz Conmy - InForum - May 22nd, 2026 [May 22nd, 2026]
- Blanche at center of Republican firestorm over $1.8B fund as he seeks to prove his loyalty to Trump - AP News - May 22nd, 2026 [May 22nd, 2026]
- Thomas Massie - Republican who stood up to Trump is hoping for big win against president - BBC - May 22nd, 2026 [May 22nd, 2026]
- Trumps revenge tour may have sparked a Republican revolt - MS NOW - May 22nd, 2026 [May 22nd, 2026]
- It will be a very difficult cycle for a Republican to hold on. - KTAR News 92.3 FM - May 22nd, 2026 [May 22nd, 2026]
- Blanche at center of Republican firestorm over $1.8B fund as he seeks to prove his loyalty to Trump - Caledonian Record - May 22nd, 2026 [May 22nd, 2026]
- Republican party infighting spills over to Montana's legislative primaries - Montana Public Radio - May 22nd, 2026 [May 22nd, 2026]
- Blanche at center of Republican firestorm over $1.8B fund as he seeks to prove his loyalty to Trump - dailyrecordnews.com - May 22nd, 2026 [May 22nd, 2026]
- Sen. Bill Cassidys defeat shows the price of dissent in Trumps Republican Party - NBC News - May 17th, 2026 [May 17th, 2026]
- Polls vs prediction: The Kentucky primary testing Trump's influence in Republican party - TRT World - May 17th, 2026 [May 17th, 2026]
- Why Trump is going to war with Kentuckys rebellious Republican - The Times - May 17th, 2026 [May 17th, 2026]
- This Republican voted to convict Trump. Now he's up for reelection. Can he survive? - NPR - May 17th, 2026 [May 17th, 2026]
- Sen. Cassidy knocked out of Louisiana Republican primary as Trump-backed Letlow, Fleming make runoff - AP News - May 17th, 2026 [May 17th, 2026]
- Trump's revenge tour continues with ouster of Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy - WBAL-TV - May 17th, 2026 [May 17th, 2026]
- Georgia Senate race tests Gov. Brian Kemps sway in the Republican Party - NBC News - May 17th, 2026 [May 17th, 2026]
- All three branches of government should have a stock trading ban: House Republican - The Hill - May 17th, 2026 [May 17th, 2026]
- CT Republican convention opens with congressional nominations after governor race shake-up - CT Insider - May 17th, 2026 [May 17th, 2026]
- Gail Symons: The Difference Between The 1994 And 2026 Republican Platform - Cowboy State Daily - May 17th, 2026 [May 17th, 2026]
- A Top Connecticut Republican, Accused of Fraud, Ends Her Bid for Governor - The New York Times - May 17th, 2026 [May 17th, 2026]
- Trump Gets Revenge on Republican Who Voted to Convict Him - Yahoo Finance - May 17th, 2026 [May 17th, 2026]
- Colorado county Republican chair arrested in sting on allegations he tried to pay for sex with a child - Colorado Springs Gazette - May 17th, 2026 [May 17th, 2026]
- Cornyn and Paxton battle for Republican nomination, abortion pill ruling sparks Texas reaction - CBS News - May 17th, 2026 [May 17th, 2026]
- Trump Gets Revenge on Republican Who Voted to Convict Him (1) - Bloomberg Government News - May 17th, 2026 [May 17th, 2026]
- Democratic spokesperson's advice to the Republican Party: 'Learn from the Biden Administration' - CNN - May 17th, 2026 [May 17th, 2026]
- Republican candidates sue to block unaffiliated voters from participating in June primary - Colorado Newsline - May 11th, 2026 [May 11th, 2026]
- In win for voters, Montana court blocks Republican-backed attack on Election Day registration - Democracy Docket - May 11th, 2026 [May 11th, 2026]
- What makes a good teacher? Ask a Republican and a Democrat, and they are likely to agree - The Conversation - May 11th, 2026 [May 11th, 2026]
- 2026 Primary Election: Two Candidates Look for the Republican Nomination in House District 3 - Flathead Beacon - May 11th, 2026 [May 11th, 2026]
- Idahos Republican civil war intensifies as the primary election draws near - Idaho Education News - May 11th, 2026 [May 11th, 2026]
- Iowa politics: KCCI's full interview with Eddie Andrews, Republican candidate for governor - KCCI - May 11th, 2026 [May 11th, 2026]
- Netflix Sued by Republican Texas Attorney General, Who Alleges Service Is Spying on Users and Is Designed to Be Addictive - Variety - May 11th, 2026 [May 11th, 2026]
- G.O.P. Fatigue in Iowa Strains the Republican Primary for Governor - The New York Times - May 11th, 2026 [May 11th, 2026]
- House Republican Proposes Bill to Wind Down the Iran War - The New York Times - May 7th, 2026 [May 7th, 2026]
- Another House Republican is under the microscope for alleged sexual misconduct - Politico - May 7th, 2026 [May 7th, 2026]
- Lather, Rinse, and Repeat: House Republican Appropriators Again Approve Foreign Assistance Bill with Funding Cuts and Bad Policy Riders - Home - PAI - May 7th, 2026 [May 7th, 2026]
- Vivek Ramaswamy wins Republican nomination for Ohio governor - BBC - May 7th, 2026 [May 7th, 2026]
- House Republican introduces bill that includes strict limits on Iran war - The Hill - May 7th, 2026 [May 7th, 2026]
- A Maine Republican is joining his rivals campaign while staying in the race - Bangor Daily News - May 7th, 2026 [May 7th, 2026]
- Inside the Quiet Republican Effort to Flip Fetterman - Politico - May 7th, 2026 [May 7th, 2026]
- Swing-district Republican introduces war authorization to limit Iran operations - Jewish Insider - May 7th, 2026 [May 7th, 2026]
- Republican who defied Trump, then lost his election fires back: 'loyalty lies' with 'the people of my district' - CNN - May 7th, 2026 [May 7th, 2026]
- New polling shows a tight race to be the Republican nominee for South Carolina's next governor - MyHorryNews.com - May 7th, 2026 [May 7th, 2026]
- Americans continue to view both the Republican and Democratic parties negatively - Pew Research Center - May 7th, 2026 [May 7th, 2026]
- Trump stumps for Burt Jones in crowded Republican race for governor - AJC.com - May 7th, 2026 [May 7th, 2026]
- Swing-district Republican breaks with Trump, pushes limits on Iran war - Yahoo - May 7th, 2026 [May 7th, 2026]