The Fix: Republican House districts are not getting any less white
Cresent Hardy, Republican candidate for Nevada's 4th Congressional District, was targeted by the state's Democratsthis week for saying that he, at first, didn't think the race was winnable because it was "a minority district."
Whether or not the attack hits very hard remains to be seen, but Hardy's candor, exposing the sort of calculus that goes into the decision of whether or not to run and for what office, is interesting. And it raises an interesting question: Can Republicans win in majority-minority districts? The answer, as you might expect, is yes. But it doesn't happen often.
Nevada's 4th District is a relatively new one. As America's population has shifted west, Nevada was the beneficiary of a new Congressional seat following the 2010 Census. The newly created district is, indeed, majority-minority, meaning that its population is more non-white than white. About 46 percent of the district's residents are white; nearly a third are Latino. Hardy is challenging incumbent Rep. Steven Horsford who is African-American, like about 13 percent of his consituents.
Since the 109th Congress, the earliest for which racial data is available by congressional district from the Census Bureau's online database, the number of majority-minority Republican House districts has stayed pretty flat, beneath 10 percent. There was a slight uptick in the 111th Congress -- the Congress following the dominant Democratic performance in 2008, when Democrats ate away at what normally would be Republican areas. That dropped the Democrats' percentage of majority-minority districts, and boosted the Republicans'.
But what's more insightful is how the makeup of each party's districts falls across the spectrum of diversity. Over at Wonkblog, Christopher Ingraham looked closely at the racial composition of the 113th Congress, including how many of the Republican Party's seats fell into various densities of whiteness. We rewound that data back a decade to see how it has changed.
In the 109th Congress, the plurality of Republican seats were in districts that were 80 to 100 percent white. As time passed, and as the country got less white overall, the vast majority of Republican seats moved into the 60 to 100 percent white range. Very few districts are under 60 percent white; nearly none are less than a fifth white. For Democrats, the change has been more dramatic. The number of districts controlled by Democrats that are more than 80 percent white is the lowest of the five quintiles. But it's densely mixed; about as many Democratic seats are between 20 and 40 percent white as are between 60 and 80 percent.
What does this mean for Cresent Hardy? Well, not a lot. But of Nevada's now-four Congressional district, two are majority white and two are majority-minority. The two that are majority-minority are currently represented by Democrats. Republicans do win seats like that, but it doesn't happen often. And it didn't happen in 2012, when Horsford first won election.
Philip Bump writes about politics for The Fix. He previously wrote for The Wire, the news blog of The Atlantic magazine. He has contributed to The Daily Beast, The Atlantic, The Daily, and the Huffington Post. Philip is based in New York City.
View original post here:
The Fix: Republican House districts are not getting any less white
- GOP lawmaker claims his and other Republican offices have been targeted with flags depicting vile symbol - CNN - October 19th, 2025 [October 19th, 2025]
- All eyes are on Trump after no Republican emerges as the frontrunner in Georgias U.S. Senate race - Georgia Recorder - October 19th, 2025 [October 19th, 2025]
- Donald Trump Says Republican Must Be Thrown Out of Congress ASAP - Newsweek - October 19th, 2025 [October 19th, 2025]
- Inside the Republican network behind big sodas bid to pit Maga against Maha - The Guardian - October 19th, 2025 [October 19th, 2025]
- Opinion | Happy birthday to an old Democrat, from this Republican - thegazette.com - October 19th, 2025 [October 19th, 2025]
- Republican Frustration With Kristi Noem Has Reached a Boiling Point - NOTUS News of the United States - October 19th, 2025 [October 19th, 2025]
- Mahoning County Republican Party calls for resignation of clerk of courts - WKBN.com - October 19th, 2025 [October 19th, 2025]
- Trump diverts anti-terror funds from Democratic strongholds to Republican states - Reuters - October 17th, 2025 [October 17th, 2025]
- Mfume, Maryland Delegation Members Urge Republican Leaders to Reopen Government, Prevent Health Care Costs from Skyrocketing and Protect Rural Health... - October 17th, 2025 [October 17th, 2025]
- American Flag With Swastika Is Found in Republican Congressmans Office - The New York Times - October 17th, 2025 [October 17th, 2025]
- First Thing: JD Vance brushes off racist texts in Republican group chat as what kids do - The Guardian - October 17th, 2025 [October 17th, 2025]
- Im still the same Ed McMahon: New Hanover County Sheriff switches from Democrat to Republican after 16 years - WECT - October 17th, 2025 [October 17th, 2025]
- The Lonely House Republican Still Coming to Work During the Shutdown - The New York Times - October 17th, 2025 [October 17th, 2025]
- US Capitol police investigating flag with swastika in Republican representatives office report - The Guardian - October 17th, 2025 [October 17th, 2025]
- Republican Lawmaker Blames Coordinated Ruse for Swastika-Emblazoned Flag in His Office - NOTUS News of the United States - October 17th, 2025 [October 17th, 2025]
- The Racist Roots, and Racist Present, of Todays Republican Party - The American Prospect - October 17th, 2025 [October 17th, 2025]
- NYC Republican mayoral hopeful Sliwa: "I'm the only one standing between Zohran Mamdani ... and Zohran lite" - CBS News - October 15th, 2025 [October 15th, 2025]
- Why this former Republican is going to a No Kings protest in Idaho - Idaho Capital Sun - October 15th, 2025 [October 15th, 2025]
- DAY 14 OF THE TRUMP-REPUBLICAN SHUTDOWN: Part I: How is the Trump Administration Using the Shutdown as Cover to Break the Law and Shutter Crucial... - October 15th, 2025 [October 15th, 2025]
- Republican Rep. Mike Lawler on his calls for Democrats to reopen the government - NPR - October 15th, 2025 [October 15th, 2025]
- Republican lawmakers demand Treasury probe CAIR over alleged Hamas ties and terrorism concerns - Fox News - October 15th, 2025 [October 15th, 2025]
- Supreme Court takes up Republican attack on Voting Rights Act in case over Black representation - ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos - October 15th, 2025 [October 15th, 2025]
- Staten Island Republican fires chief of staff over alleged text comments, including I love Hitler - SILive.com - October 15th, 2025 [October 15th, 2025]
- 'I love Hitler': The internal correspondence of young Republican politicians - Ynetnews - October 15th, 2025 [October 15th, 2025]
- Yale researcher says Republican funding proposal could cost thousands of lives - Connecticut Public - October 15th, 2025 [October 15th, 2025]
- Republican Bill Aims to Make Trump's Bitcoin and Crypto 401K Order Federal Law - Yahoo Finance - October 15th, 2025 [October 15th, 2025]
- How Wesley Hunt's entry into the Texas Senate race impacts Republican primary rivals Cornyn and Paxton - CBS News - October 13th, 2025 [October 13th, 2025]
- Analyzing Dominion Voting Systems sale to firm run by ex-Republican elections official - NPR - October 13th, 2025 [October 13th, 2025]
- LEADER JEFFRIES ON MSNBC: WE NEED TO ADDRESS THIS REPUBLICAN HEALTHCARE CRISIS - Congressman Hakeem Jeffries (.gov) - October 13th, 2025 [October 13th, 2025]
- LEADER JEFFRIES: "THIS HAS BEEN AN ALL-OUT REPUBLICAN ASSAULT ON THE HEALTHCARE OF THE AMERICAN PEOPLE" - Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries... - October 13th, 2025 [October 13th, 2025]
- Democrats have upper hand in shutdown because Republican voters like Obamacare | Opinion - USA Today - October 13th, 2025 [October 13th, 2025]
- Watson Coleman Tours Organizations Impacted by Republican Shutdown and Cuts - Insider NJ - October 13th, 2025 [October 13th, 2025]
- Oct. 13, 2025: Around the Region - Pottsville Republican Herald - October 13th, 2025 [October 13th, 2025]
- Republican U.S. Senate race in Georgia is still searching for a front-runner - AJC.com - October 11th, 2025 [October 11th, 2025]
- Obamacare Enrollment by State: Most Enrollees Live in Republican Areas - The New York Times - October 11th, 2025 [October 11th, 2025]
- Top Republican Throws Massive Wrench in Shutdown Standoff - The Daily Beast - October 11th, 2025 [October 11th, 2025]
- Former Republican elections official buys Dominion Voting, the company at the center of false 2020 conspiracy theories - Fortune - October 11th, 2025 [October 11th, 2025]
- Dominion Voting Systems sold to company run by former Republican election official - ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos - October 11th, 2025 [October 11th, 2025]
- Congresswoman Escobar Withholds Her Pay for Duration of the Republican Government Shutdown - Congresswoman Veronica Escobar (.gov) - October 11th, 2025 [October 11th, 2025]
- Rep. Jimmy Gomez and Dads Caucus Call on Republican Leadership to End Shutdown and Protect Affordable Health Care - U.S. Representative Jimmy Gomez... - October 11th, 2025 [October 11th, 2025]
- Everyone is confused about Tylenol and autism, but Republican women lean toward believing RFK - The 19th News - October 11th, 2025 [October 11th, 2025]
- Letitia James is the biggest hypocrite of them all, Republican strategist says - Fox News - October 11th, 2025 [October 11th, 2025]
- Griffith is only Republican in Virginia delegation not to call for Jones to quit race - Cardinal News - October 11th, 2025 [October 11th, 2025]
- Laura Loomer vs. Pete Hegseth: Is Trump's 'biggest' supporter leaving Republican Party? What we know - Hindustan Times - October 11th, 2025 [October 11th, 2025]
- Republican Leaders Show No Signs of Changing Their Shutdown Strategy - NOTUS News of the United States - October 11th, 2025 [October 11th, 2025]
- Republican Military Wife Rebukes Mike Johnson on Live TV'Very Disappointed' - Newsweek - October 11th, 2025 [October 11th, 2025]
- Texas Troops in Illinois Criticized by Republican Governor - Newsweek - October 11th, 2025 [October 11th, 2025]
- Republican voter registration surges in N.J. as political landscape shifts. See the numbers. - NJ.com - October 11th, 2025 [October 11th, 2025]
- Republican Governors Eagerly Join Trumps Military Campaign Against Blue Cities - The Intercept - October 11th, 2025 [October 11th, 2025]
- Temple alums debut book reveals Phillys ties to Irish Republican Army gun smuggling during the Troubles - Temple University - October 9th, 2025 [October 9th, 2025]
- DAY 8 OF THE TRUMP-REPUBLICAN SHUTDOWN: How is the Trump-Republican Shutdown Making It Easier to Scam Investors? - U.S. House Committee on Financial... - October 9th, 2025 [October 9th, 2025]
- Walberg, Michigan Republican Delegation Send Letter to Michigan Senators Urging Them to End Shutdown - Congressman Tim Walberg | (.gov) - October 9th, 2025 [October 9th, 2025]
- LEADER JEFFRIES ON MSNBC: "WE NEED TO ADDRESS THE REPUBLICAN HEALTHCARE CRISIS" - Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (.gov) - October 9th, 2025 [October 9th, 2025]
- Press Release: Senator Lisa Blunt Rochester Urges Republican Colleagues to Prioritize Government Reopening and Health Care in Committee Remarks -... - October 9th, 2025 [October 9th, 2025]
- Press Release: Hoyer Addresses Health Care Shutdown Impact in Hearing on Republican Governance - Quiver Quantitative - October 9th, 2025 [October 9th, 2025]
- Lee County Republican group pushes to rename Summerlin Rd to Charlie Kirk Blvd - Gulf Coast News and Weather - October 9th, 2025 [October 9th, 2025]
- LEADER JEFFRIES ON THE TODAY SHOW: THE WHITE HOUSE AND REPUBLICAN LEADERS HAVE GONE RADIO SILENT Congressman Hakeem Jeffries - Congressman Hakeem... - October 7th, 2025 [October 7th, 2025]
- US Senate rejects Republican spending bill to end government shutdown - Anadolu Ajans - October 7th, 2025 [October 7th, 2025]
- US Senate rejects both Republican and Democrats bill to end government shutdown - TRT World - October 7th, 2025 [October 7th, 2025]
- LEADER JEFFRIES ON MEET THE PRESS: WE HAVE TO DECISIVELY ADDRESS THIS REPUBLICAN HEALTHCARE CRISIS Congressman Hakeem Jeffries - Congressman Hakeem... - October 7th, 2025 [October 7th, 2025]
- Abbott Appoints Republican Harris County Criminal Court Judge Three Years After Disputed Election - The Texan - October 7th, 2025 [October 7th, 2025]
- Fact Check Team: Key differences between the Republican and Democratic funding proposals - KBAK - October 7th, 2025 [October 7th, 2025]
- Virginia attorney general candidate Jay Jones under fire over resurfaced text messages suggesting Republican should get "bullets to the... - October 4th, 2025 [October 4th, 2025]
- How Democrats are trying to bust Republican lies about healthcare for undocumented immigrants - The Guardian - October 4th, 2025 [October 4th, 2025]
- DAY 3 OF THE TRUMP-REPUBLICAN SHUTDOWN: How will the Trump-Republican Shutdown Worsen the Housing and Homelessness Crisis? - U.S. House Committee on... - October 4th, 2025 [October 4th, 2025]
- Freed, McMartin crowned Grundy Center Homecoming royalty - Times Republican - October 4th, 2025 [October 4th, 2025]
- Correction: Republican Climer running for South Carolina congressional District 5 - The Item - October 4th, 2025 [October 4th, 2025]
- This Republican Assemblymember Wants to Split California in Two - KQED - October 4th, 2025 [October 4th, 2025]
- REPUBLICAN SHUTDOWN DAY 2: Senator Murray, WA Hospital Leaders Lay Out How the Republican Health Care Crisis is Defunding Hospitals, Forcing Premiums... - October 4th, 2025 [October 4th, 2025]
- The Shutdown Is Part of the Republican Plan to Hobble Government - Bloomberg.com - October 4th, 2025 [October 4th, 2025]
- How States Are Reckoning with Republican Health Reforms - Tradeoffs - October 2nd, 2025 [October 2nd, 2025]
- Brownley Statement on Republican Shutdown of the Federal Government - Congresswoman Julia Brownley (.gov) - October 2nd, 2025 [October 2nd, 2025]
- LEADER JEFFRIES: THE REPUBLICAN HEALTHCARE CRISIS IS IMMORAL IN NATURE AND DEMOCRATS ARE FIGHTING HARD TO REVERSE IT Congressman Hakeem Jeffries -... - October 2nd, 2025 [October 2nd, 2025]
- What to Know About a Republican Government Shutdown - Congressman Gabe Amo (.gov) - October 2nd, 2025 [October 2nd, 2025]
- Fact-checking Republican claims about healthcare for immigrants that are fueling shutdown - CBS News - October 2nd, 2025 [October 2nd, 2025]
- Oregon Republican lawmakers say they will attempt to put transportation tax hikes on next years ballot - OregonLive.com - October 2nd, 2025 [October 2nd, 2025]
- The Republican Shutdown Argument is a Giant Lie - The Bulwark - October 2nd, 2025 [October 2nd, 2025]
- Republican lawmakers demand answers after non-citizen flagged as active Maryland voter - WBFF - October 2nd, 2025 [October 2nd, 2025]
- Whip Clark Statement on the Republican Shutdown - Katherine Clark Democratic Whip | (.gov) - October 2nd, 2025 [October 2nd, 2025]
- Republican Calls for Lawmaker Pay To Be Suspended Amid Government Shutdown - Newsweek - October 2nd, 2025 [October 2nd, 2025]