Republican support from this key voting group is in jeopardy. Abortion is to blame. – POLITICO
I think that silent group of people is going to have an effect on this election, said Klinefelt, who is running in one of Michigans most hotly contested state legislative races.
Democrats are counting on those silent women voters to join them in Michigan and other battleground states across the country, where abortion has scrambled the calculus on how they may vote this fall. The campaigns in Michigan show Democrats are not just leaning on abortion policy to juice turnout amongst the partys base, especially the large portion of it composed of college-educated women. Abortion is also a key part of the effort to persuade blue-collar women to switch sides, particularly in states where their Republican counterparts advocate a no exceptions approach to abortion access.
What were seeing is that women are outraged that rights that we thought were locked in are now very much at risk of being gone, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer said in an interview with POLITICO after rallying voters in Trenton, Mich. The fact that so many people appear to be getting engaged on this issue, I think, is a good sign.
Back at the doors, Klinefelt met a 44-year-old Eastpointe woman who declined to share her name but exemplified Klinefelts search for swing voters motivated by abortion. Ive always been pro-life, the woman said. But in realizing how many [abortions] are medically necessary, but then theres no exceptions? Thats big for me.
The woman said she plans to vote for Whitmer this fall because shes much better than the alternative, and abortion, truthfully, weighed heavily on that decision.
Even some Republicans in the state privately acknowledge that they need to do some soul-searching to get in line with the people on abortion policy, said one Michigan Republican consultant, who was granted anonymity to discuss the issue candidly.
People are not on the side of late-term or abortions without parental consent, and theyre [also] not on the side of no exceptions, the person continued. Dobbs has thrown a monkey wrench into what should be a great year for us here and the no exceptions thing is the killer.
Abortion-rights protesters cheer at a rally in Lansing, Mich. on June 24, 2022, following the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.|Paul Sancya/AP Photo
Nationally, the picture is more complicated for Democrats looking to draw in white, non-college-educated women, especially in places where the debate around abortion is more nuanced, several GOP pollsters said. They also point to public and private polling that consistently finds economic concerns outweighing abortion for these voters.
Even so, [Dobbs] has given Democrats a second look with them, said Neil Newhouse, a Republican pollster who works on elections across the country.
Its given them another shot, a foothold, which they wouldnt have otherwise, Newhouse continued. Is it enough? No. Are [Democrats] still going to lose the House? Yes. But is it enough to make it closer than it wouldve been? No question about it.
Both national and in-state Republicans argue a big part of the problem in Michigan is that Democrats barrage of attacks on abortion has gone unanswered. Dixons campaign has failed to air a single TV ad since she won the August primary, according to AdImpact, an ad-tracking media firm. In contrast, Whitmers campaign and Democratic allies have dumped millions into TV ads, primarily hammering Dixon on her comments about abortion and the states 1931 law that would criminalize abortion and put nurses in jail just for doing their job, one TV ads narrator says.
Some help is on the way for Dixon. The Republican Governors Association has reserved $4 million of TV ads over the final four weeks of the campaign, while a pro-Dixon group, Michigan Families United, has spent about $1.3 million on attacking Whitmer for pushing sex and gender theory in schools, the ads narrator says.
As ads take hold, things are going to change tremendously, said James Blair, Dixons chief strategist. Democrats went too hard, too heavy, too early. The election will still be a referendum on Whitmers failures and the state of the economy whether she likes it or not.
Republicans insist that blue-collar women will still vote primarily on pocketbook problems. Gas prices ticked up again this week, and cost of living continues to rank as the top one or two issues for women voters, according to public and private polling.
But there is evidence that a post-Dobbs bump is manifesting for Democrats, as Whitmer maintains a hefty public polling lead and voter registration swung towards women and younger voters, according to an analysis by Tom Bonier, the chief executive of TargetSmart, a Democratic data firm.
Richard Czuba, an independent pollster in the state who regularly conducts statewide polls for local news outlets, said that based on his data, once abortion is the focus in a race, statewide or in the legislature, those non-college women move away from the Republican coalition, which is a huge loss to them.
Every time Tudor is frustrated that all Whitmer talks about is abortion well, yeah, youre getting your head handed to you on this issue and they have no response, Czuba continued. This decision came out in June, but they still have no coherent response or strategy to deal with it.
Dixon vented that frustration at a recent rally with former President Donald Trump in Warren, Mich., another town in Macomb County. The candidate told rally-goers that Whitmer is out there saying that Im going to be able to do something about that issue in this state, but as you all know, its on the ballot, its been decided by a judge, dont let her shiny thing distract from the fact that she has done nothing but hurt this state.
Tudor Dixon addresses the crowd during a Save America rally on Oct. 1, 2022 in Warren, Mich.|Emily Elconin/Getty Images
Dixon is citing a statewide ballot initiative that would enshrine abortion rights in the Michigan state constitution one of a few measures that will appear on November ballots this fall following success for abortion-rights supporters in a Kansas ballot measure in August.
To reporters, Dixon reiterated that abortion shouldnt be an issue for the gubernatorial race, but [Whitmer] hasnt come out with a plan, so shes trying to run against me on that, she said.
She also argued that the ballot initiative was the most radical abortion law in the entire country, so I expect to have quite a few people coming out that maybe, historically, would not have come out.
Whitmer, for her part, called Dixons argument ridiculous.
Even if the ballot initiative passes, the next governor and legislature can start enacting all sorts of laws that make it more difficult, more confusing and are going to stand in the way of women being able to exercise this fundamental right, Whitmer said. Voters are smart. They know when someone tells you who they are, you better believe them, or you might all of a sudden be losing your rights.
Democrats acknowledged the framing matters as they run on abortion, including trying to put the issue in economic terms.
Its the most important economic decision a woman makes in her lifetime, Whitmer said, noting that sometimes Democrats dont engage in [that messaging frame] as much as we probably should.
State Sen. Mallory McMorrow, a Democrat who represents a slice of neighboring Oakland County, reinforced Whitmers point.
Heres what pollsters are missing and its not a surprise that a lot of them are men: For women, this is the most expensive decision theyll make in their lifetime. If youre a woman, youre buying groceries, thats another mouth to feed, its more gas to pay for another trip to a school, McMorrow said. If youre talking to women, yes, inflation is the top concern, but theyre also thinking about that in the context of access to an abortion.
CORRECTION: A previous version of this report incorrectly described the Kansas ballot measure vote on abortion rights earlier this year.
Continue reading here:
Republican support from this key voting group is in jeopardy. Abortion is to blame. - POLITICO
- Republican congressman suffers broken rib from horse kick - The Washington Post - July 30th, 2025 [July 30th, 2025]
- Republican Suffers Broken Rib After Being Kicked By Horse: What To Know - Newsweek - July 30th, 2025 [July 30th, 2025]
- More than $5M in excess Republican National Convention funds donated to local orgs - Milwaukee Record - July 30th, 2025 [July 30th, 2025]
- Chad Prather to headline annual Wells County Republican Party Reagan Rally - Bluffton News-Banner - July 30th, 2025 [July 30th, 2025]
- Republican Party calls for Alachua County School Board members resignation over Hulk Hogan comment - WCJB - July 30th, 2025 [July 30th, 2025]
- Rep. Deborah Ross on the Republican mega-bill, the war on public broadcasting, and the Epstein files - NC Newsline - July 28th, 2025 [July 28th, 2025]
- Republican Rep. Nancy Mace says shes definitely leaning towards running for South Carolina governor next year - Fox News - July 28th, 2025 [July 28th, 2025]
- Episode 35: Trump Clears the Field in Republican Primaries and Dems Get Their Pick in N.C. - Cook Political Report - July 28th, 2025 [July 28th, 2025]
- Tapper, Republican Senator Markwayne Mullin spar on the effort to release the full Epstein files - CNN - July 28th, 2025 [July 28th, 2025]
- Food and faith converge at Ukrainian Seminary Day in Primrose - Republican Herald - July 28th, 2025 [July 28th, 2025]
- The Republican Disaster Relief Disaster and the Democratic Path Forward - Washington Monthly - July 28th, 2025 [July 28th, 2025]
- Rock Hill congressman becomes 4th Republican to enter SC governors race - South Carolina Daily Gazette - July 28th, 2025 [July 28th, 2025]
- Republican Con Artist From Queens Reports to Prison - Mother Jones - July 27th, 2025 [July 27th, 2025]
- Federal utility assistance program on the chopping block, but this Kentucky Republican has glowing reviews - WUKY - July 27th, 2025 [July 27th, 2025]
- Guess Which Texas Republican Was Just Accused of Paying for Abortions? - Yahoo Home - July 27th, 2025 [July 27th, 2025]
- Pa. Republican House members office vandalized with vulgar graffiti - PennLive.com - July 27th, 2025 [July 27th, 2025]
- Red River Republican Women hear from 8 Republican Congress candidates - Clarksville Now - July 27th, 2025 [July 27th, 2025]
- Here are the likely Democratic and Republican contenders for Wisconsin governor in 2026 - Milwaukee Journal Sentinel - July 24th, 2025 [July 24th, 2025]
- 'Shirts and Skins': How one Republican bridged the gap to pass Trump's 'big, beautiful bill' - Fox News - July 24th, 2025 [July 24th, 2025]
- This Republican senator wants Congress to have more oversight of D.C. - The Washington Post - July 24th, 2025 [July 24th, 2025]
- An Inland Empire Republican lawmaker wants to update rules for immigrant workers. Will Trump listen? - CalMatters - July 24th, 2025 [July 24th, 2025]
- RAW: Republican Rep. Comer plans to move "quickly" with issuing subpoena to DOJ on Epstein, Clintons - WAAY 31 News - July 24th, 2025 [July 24th, 2025]
- Congressman Flood named chair of the Republican Main Street Caucus in Congress - KTIV - July 24th, 2025 [July 24th, 2025]
- House Republican introduces companion bill to end China's buying of American farmland - Fox News - July 24th, 2025 [July 24th, 2025]
- Its really theft: the Republican plan to redraw Texas maps and grab more power - The Guardian - July 22nd, 2025 [July 22nd, 2025]
- Trump Flips Out at Republican Lawmaker Exposing the Party on Epstein - Yahoo Home - July 22nd, 2025 [July 22nd, 2025]
- Republican divide over Fed renovation grows - Semafor - July 22nd, 2025 [July 22nd, 2025]
- Opinion | Heres the most baffling part of the Republican budget bill - The Washington Post - July 22nd, 2025 [July 22nd, 2025]
- Exclusive | NY Young Republican Club urges Congress to disqualify Mamdani from NYC mayoral race accuses him of giving US enemies aid and comfort -... - July 22nd, 2025 [July 22nd, 2025]
- A Fourth Candidate, And First Republican, Ruth Bittner, Joins The Race To Fill Late Rep. Hortmans Vacant House Seat - Patch - July 22nd, 2025 [July 22nd, 2025]
- Republican Rep. Slams Mike Johnson Over Epstein Files As House Is Shut Until September To Block Vote - Latin Times - July 22nd, 2025 [July 22nd, 2025]
- Hernando County Republican Blaise Ingoglia sworn in as Florida CFO - Creative Loafing Tampa Bay - July 22nd, 2025 [July 22nd, 2025]
- Trump Flips Out at Republican Lawmaker Exposing the Party on Epstein - The New Republic - July 22nd, 2025 [July 22nd, 2025]
- Sarah McBride's first bill just passed Congress & not one Republican voted against it - Yahoo Home - July 22nd, 2025 [July 22nd, 2025]
- Pallone slams Republican cuts to beach replenishment funding: 'Theyre pulling the sand out from under us' - Insider NJ - July 22nd, 2025 [July 22nd, 2025]
- Murray, UW Medicine & Harborview CEOs Sound Alarm on How Republican Medicaid Cuts Will Devastate Hospitals, Threaten Specialty Care People in... - July 22nd, 2025 [July 22nd, 2025]
- DAVID MARCUS: Stephen Colberts character is the latest never-Trump Republican to fall - Fox News - July 20th, 2025 [July 20th, 2025]
- Inside the House Republican-led plot to defy Trump on the Epstein files - Axios - July 20th, 2025 [July 20th, 2025]
- One WA Republican chisels at the MAGA wall on immigration - The Seattle Times - July 20th, 2025 [July 20th, 2025]
- Republican rumblings: on Trump and the Epstein files - The Hindu - July 20th, 2025 [July 20th, 2025]
- What Musk's fracture with Trump means for GOPs future: Beating heart of the Republican Party - Fox News - July 20th, 2025 [July 20th, 2025]
- Whats in the Republican bill cutting $9 billion from public broadcasting and foreign aid - Hot Springs Sentinel Record - July 20th, 2025 [July 20th, 2025]
- Republican Miller, Democrat Berry discuss priorities ahead of Aug. 5 special election for 20th House district - Bay to Bay News - July 20th, 2025 [July 20th, 2025]
- Letters to the editor: Republican debt solution, response to Epstein - Macomb Daily - July 20th, 2025 [July 20th, 2025]
- Republican lawmakers trying to repeal governor's 400-year funding veto - WKOW - July 20th, 2025 [July 20th, 2025]
- Jill Biden aide invokes Fifth to decline testimony in Republican investigation - ABC News - July 20th, 2025 [July 20th, 2025]
- Tensions over Epstein files complicate Republican plan to vote on cuts bill - The Guardian - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- Jill Biden aide invokes Fifth to decline testimony in Republican investigation - AP News - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- 2004 to 2024, Part Two: When Each State Was at its Most Republican - Center For Politics - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- Republican Scott Jensen to run for governor again in 2026, says state budgeting has been 'irresponsible' - 5 EYEWITNESS NEWS - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- What's in the Republican bill cutting $9 billion from public broadcasting and foreign aid - yourvalley.net - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- They took it to the next level: Emmer breaks down the Republican crypto rebellion - Semafor - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- Whats in the Republican bill cutting $9 billion from public broadcasting and foreign aid - WOWK 13 News - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- Republican Tax Bill Is a Losing Deal for Gamblers - The New York Times - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- Mike Johnson Reacts to Republican Blowback Over Jeffrey Epstein - Newsweek - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- JD Vance urges Republican voters to 'talk to your friends' about the 'big, beautiful bill' - NBC News - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- Key Senate Republican thinks deal in the offing over FBI HQ location dispute - Politico - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Georgia's Raffensperger calls for return of donations after Republican donor accused of Ponzi scheme - Colorado Newsline - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Three Republican senators break with Trump to vote against codifying DOGE spending cuts - The Independent - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Moore taps Carroll County Republican, Army vet to head veterans department - Maryland Matters - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Key Senate Republican to meet with Trump on funding clawback request - Politico - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Gov. Kelly Ayotte vetoes Republican-backed bill aimed at banning certain books in schools - WMUR - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- The Republican senators to watch on cutting PBS, NPR and foreign aid funding - Axios - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- This small House Republican caucus held US stablecoin bill hostage until Trump cracked the whip - CryptoSlate - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Why more of Hobbs Arizona agency director nominees won Republican approval this year - KJZZ - July 16th, 2025 [July 16th, 2025]
- Homeland Security's Noem says in talks with five Republican-led states to build detention site - Reuters - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- 'Danger of Musks potential third party is [splitting] Republican votes: Tanden - ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- Herridge to resign as West Virginia Republican chairman, focus on cabinet role - News and Sentinel - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- Rep. Brendan Boyle: You need four Republican Senators to stand up and have the courage to vote, no - MSN - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- The Frederick County Republican Central Committee wants to appoint candidates for the upcoming municipal elections in Frederick. But the filing... - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- Raabe: On Monday, Remember The Greenwich Republican Party IS the National Republican Party - Greenwich Free Press - July 14th, 2025 [July 14th, 2025]
- 'Sacred Covenant' How the Paxton divorce rocks the bruising Republican Senate primary in Texas - Fox News - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Wisconsin businessman and Navy SEAL Bill Berrien launches Republican campaign for governor - WPR - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Redrawing Texas: the Republican plan to stack the decks for the midterms - The Guardian - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- After recent vetoes, it's time for DeWine to restore Republican Party | Letters - Yahoo News - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Exclusive | The Republican Strategy to Win Without Trump on the Ballot - WSJ - The Wall Street Journal - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- The Big Bad Republican Bill Wasnt Regressive Enough for the Anti-Tax Crusaders - Mother Jones - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Can the National Education Association Win Over Republican Members? - Education Week - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Texas keeps getting slammed by extreme weather catastrophes, but its Republican rulers remain contemptuous of climate science - Northwest Progressive... - July 12th, 2025 [July 12th, 2025]
- Exclusive | The Republican Strategy to Win Without Trump on the Ballot - WSJ - July 10th, 2025 [July 10th, 2025]