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Republican strategists believe President Trump is not stuck on his idea to begin reopening the country by Easter, as epidemiologists counsel a longer wait.

According to our models, deaths and new cases will still be increasing at Easter, said Christopher Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Things will be getting to their absolute peak. The public and most governors and most people in the federal government will be extremely anxious because there will be more demand on hospitals than capacity and more deaths.

Trump allies are worried about this possible outcome. But many stressed that the presidents talk of quarantines ending at Easter is more flexible, and the actual policies implemented are likely to be more data-driven than his critics suppose.

"I think most people understand that Easter is an aspirational goal and that local and state officials will be making the decision, not the federal government, Republican consultant Matt Mackowiak said. The problem is that four states are dealing with severe outbreaks [California, New York, Washington state, and New Jersey], and the other 46 states mostly have it managed right now. A nationwide shelter-at-home approach makes no sense for vast swaths of the country. At some point, we have to return to work. Trump is trying to balance these competing desires. There is no road map."

Republican strategist Nicholas Everhart agreed. "The presidents Easter goal of economic and life normalcy, if you would, is really more of a throwaway aspirational idea to make people feel good," he said. "The day has little bearing on reality. Also, while he continues to reference it, when the Easter normalcy doesnt come to fruition, the foil or reason the date isnt met he can say was the decision of individual state governors.

By eyeing Easter as a possible target for a return to normalcy, President Trump is employing a business strategy known as a stretch goal, said a third GOP strategist. Unlike a commit goal, stretch goals are flexible and do not necessarily have to be met. Rather, stretch goals are motivational tools to make success seem closer, but it also psychologically urges people to work harder to try to achieve it. Add in the fact that Easter itself is premised upon resurrection, and Trump has given the American public hope and mental light at the end of the tunnel.

What if nothing substantial changes next month? If by the time we get to Easter, and the medical data and experts suggest a return to normalcy is not feasible at that time, Trumps next stretch date could be Memorial Day or July 4 a rebirth of normalcy to pair with the birth of America, this strategist said. The reason why Trump cant just say I will solely rely on the experts is because it takes a psychological arrow out of his quiver, and it creates a sense of depression among the American people. So, this is a very wise tactic by Trump despite the media grousing.

Trump has implied as much himself. Every decision we make is grounded solely on the health, safety, and well-being of our citizens, he assured reporters at a White House coronavirus press briefing. This is a medical crisis; this isn't a financial crisis. But he acknowledged liking the imagery of packed churches on Easter Sunday according to his beautiful timeline. Former Vice President Joe Biden, the likely Democratic presidential nominee, called on Friday for Trump to level with the American people about what lies ahead.

Lets say we open up Easter Sunday regardless of the facts on the ground, said Ashish Jha, director of Harvards Global Health Institute. For the first couple of weeks, it will be fine nobody will notice the difference. Then, in three to four weeks, people going to emergency rooms will spike.

Murray indicated Trump would have to wait at least another month. There may be options in May that allow you to frequently test people and people who are not infected will be able to go back to work, he said.

Infections have to be reasonably under control, you cant have a spiking number, said Jha. You've got to have very extensive testing set up in your community. Then, you can open up, and you have to have a very aggressive testing regime.

The Trump administration is currently working on new federal guidelines.

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Republican strategists believe Trump flexible on wish to unlock the country by Easter - Washington Examiner